There's no (I) Fund in the word Team ! :nuts:
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Squalebear's Account Talk
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There's no (I) Fund in the word Team ! :nuts:
Nasa, you have to go down to #101 before you reach anyone other then
ourselves that got lucky enough to be 100% (I) Fund today. Nice Job.
Thanks SB. Fingers crossed that the numbers stay for the I. I made a bold move also; 50%G, 10%F, 20%C, 10%S and 10%I. American market can have a minor sell off by 4 and a rally train tomorrow. Then it will be back to G with some small adjustments (<1%).
Good luck to all today and tomorrow.Thanks SB. Fingers crossed that the numbers stay for the I. I made a bold move also; 50%G, 10%F, 20%C, 10%S and 10%I. American market can have a minor sell off by 4 and a rally train tomorrow. Then it will be back to G with some small adjustments (<1%).
The steady nature of this rally leads me to worry more about tomorrow
and not a terribly impacting drop come 3pm-4pm. A drop may happen
non the less, but much of this rally has alot to do with repositioning and
buying into a new President. I'm hearing that if checks and balances are
not maintaned and we transform into a Democrat House/Senate, all bets
are off come tomorrow. So, I have 4 fingers (western reference)going down
my belly and another 4 fingers crossed.
Then again, its early and anything could. Now you made me nervous !
Come on sideline money. We're going to use our Gas Savings during
Christmas, so Retail won't look half as bad as you think. We never
changed our budgets to reflect the current $2.179 cents per gallon.
Our budgets still call for $3.789 per gallon. Put that foot in the water
for goodness sake and bring the shorts to their knee's.
Christmas, so Retail won't look half as bad as you think. We never
changed our budgets to reflect the current $2.179 cents per gallon.
Our budgets still call for $3.789 per gallon. Put that foot in the water
for goodness sake and bring the shorts to their knee's.
For you (I) Funder's I posted some info in Birchtree's thread a moment ago
and I thought I'd share it here too. If the O/D Tracker has truly experienced
a Deficit side reversal, then there's a few things that could happen come the
7:30pm TSP Share Price Update;
#1- We could see the exact same return (minimal difference) as the EFA.
This would leave us in the deficit side by approximately 0.0950 TSP Cents.
#2- We could see the Fund Managers add to the deficit by underperforming
the EFA and drive the current deficit "they owe us" into double digits.
#3- We could see the Fund Managers allow the (I) Fund to outperform the
EFA by paying back some of the deficit they already owe us.
Number 3 plays out better for me, as I took all but 5% out of the (I).
Number 1 comes in as a close second and Number 2 comes in last as I
would prefer it not happening. But thats not true for everyone. Anyone
entering the (I) Fund for tomorrow wants to see an up day (obviously)
and Number 2 come into play. That would put the pressure on the Fund
Managers to allow a Outperformance of the EFA and force alittle payback
of the deficit. The result ----> Greater Gains ! Good Luck Tomorrow !
and I thought I'd share it here too. If the O/D Tracker has truly experienced
a Deficit side reversal, then there's a few things that could happen come the
7:30pm TSP Share Price Update;
#1- We could see the exact same return (minimal difference) as the EFA.
This would leave us in the deficit side by approximately 0.0950 TSP Cents.
#2- We could see the Fund Managers add to the deficit by underperforming
the EFA and drive the current deficit "they owe us" into double digits.
#3- We could see the Fund Managers allow the (I) Fund to outperform the
EFA by paying back some of the deficit they already owe us.
Number 3 plays out better for me, as I took all but 5% out of the (I).
Number 1 comes in as a close second and Number 2 comes in last as I
would prefer it not happening. But thats not true for everyone. Anyone
entering the (I) Fund for tomorrow wants to see an up day (obviously)
and Number 2 come into play. That would put the pressure on the Fund
Managers to allow a Outperformance of the EFA and force alittle payback
of the deficit. The result ----> Greater Gains ! Good Luck Tomorrow !
Yes its Double Digits. The penny of underperformance
left the (I) Fund pretty much without change within the
O/D Tracker. We got MOST of the returns that the EFA
received and kept things open for a little payback come
tomorrow. This is equivlent to the #1 scenario I posted
below. Its also good news for those who jumped into
the (I) Fund for tomorrow. Should the day be negative,
the Fund Managers could also use the deficit to soften
the blow. Lets hope for a follow thru rally in the morn.
YTD O/D FOR ALL TSP FUNDS
(C) Fund vs. the SPX = -0.2014 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.74%
(S) Fund vs. DWCPF. = -0.2707 TSP Cent Overpayment or +2.02%
(I). Fund vs. the EFA =+0.1047 TSP Cent Overpayment or -0.69%
DAILY (I) FUND VS. EFA O/D TRACKING RESULTS:
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/13/08) +0.6117% -0.3431 tsp cents
(10/14/08) -1.0454% -0.1711 tsp cents
(10/15/08) +0.9341% -0.2846 tsp cents
(10/16/08) -1.7110% -0.0482 tsp cents
(10/17/08) +0.3405% -0.0987 tsp cents
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/20/08) -0.7050%+0.0048 tsp cents
(10/21/08)+0.8721% -0.1205 tsp cents
(10/22/08)+0.5115% -0.1807 tsp cents
(10/23/08) -0.3743% -0.1331 tsp cents
(10/24/08) -0.4057% -0.0725 tsp cents
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/27/08) -0.4900% -0.1282 tsp cents
(10/28/08) -1.9368%+0.1181 tsp cents
(10/29/08)+0.7332%+0.0193 tsp cents
(10/30/08)+0.9004% -0.1080 tsp cents
(10/31/08) -0.8988%+0.0199 tsp cents
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(11/03/08) -0.5300%+0.0950 tsp cents
(11/04/08) -0.0212%+0.1047 tsp cents
THE KEY:
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming ! (OMG)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Higher)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
----------------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .1000 thru -.0000 Minimum Overpayment (Goal is Met)
- .2000 thru -.1000Low Overpayment, (Slightly Over Goal)
- .3000 thru -.2000 Medium Overpayment (Flip A Coin)
- .4000 thru -.3000 Elavated Overpayment, (Payback Immanent)
- .6000 thru -.4000 High Overpayment (Payback Past Due)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
left the (I) Fund pretty much without change within the
O/D Tracker. We got MOST of the returns that the EFA
received and kept things open for a little payback come
tomorrow. This is equivlent to the #1 scenario I posted
below. Its also good news for those who jumped into
the (I) Fund for tomorrow. Should the day be negative,
the Fund Managers could also use the deficit to soften
the blow. Lets hope for a follow thru rally in the morn.
YTD O/D FOR ALL TSP FUNDS
(C) Fund vs. the SPX = -0.2014 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.74%
(S) Fund vs. DWCPF. = -0.2707 TSP Cent Overpayment or +2.02%
(I). Fund vs. the EFA =+0.1047 TSP Cent Overpayment or -0.69%
DAILY (I) FUND VS. EFA O/D TRACKING RESULTS:
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/13/08) +0.6117% -0.3431 tsp cents
(10/14/08) -1.0454% -0.1711 tsp cents
(10/15/08) +0.9341% -0.2846 tsp cents
(10/16/08) -1.7110% -0.0482 tsp cents
(10/17/08) +0.3405% -0.0987 tsp cents
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/20/08) -0.7050%+0.0048 tsp cents
(10/21/08)+0.8721% -0.1205 tsp cents
(10/22/08)+0.5115% -0.1807 tsp cents
(10/23/08) -0.3743% -0.1331 tsp cents
(10/24/08) -0.4057% -0.0725 tsp cents
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/27/08) -0.4900% -0.1282 tsp cents
(10/28/08) -1.9368%+0.1181 tsp cents
(10/29/08)+0.7332%+0.0193 tsp cents
(10/30/08)+0.9004% -0.1080 tsp cents
(10/31/08) -0.8988%+0.0199 tsp cents
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(11/03/08) -0.5300%+0.0950 tsp cents
(11/04/08) -0.0212%+0.1047 tsp cents
THE KEY:
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming ! (OMG)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Higher)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
----------------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .1000 thru -.0000 Minimum Overpayment (Goal is Met)
- .2000 thru -.1000Low Overpayment, (Slightly Over Goal)
- .3000 thru -.2000 Medium Overpayment (Flip A Coin)
- .4000 thru -.3000 Elavated Overpayment, (Payback Immanent)
- .6000 thru -.4000 High Overpayment (Payback Past Due)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX= -31.51%.....C=...-30.27%....-09.95% (my figures)
DW.= -33.42%.....S=.. -32.17%....
EFA= -39.08%......I=...-38.83%...
AGG= -05.56%.....F=...-00.22%...
...........................G=...+03.23%...
MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX=+03.82%.....C=...+03.82%....+06.87%(my figures)
DW.=+02.36%.....S=...+02.30%....
EFA=+07.29%.....I=....+06.70%...
AGG= -00.43%.....F=...+01.39%...
...........................G=...+00.04%..
SPX= -31.51%.....C=...-30.27%....-09.95% (my figures)
DW.= -33.42%.....S=.. -32.17%....
EFA= -39.08%......I=...-38.83%...
AGG= -05.56%.....F=...-00.22%...
...........................G=...+03.23%...
MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX=+03.82%.....C=...+03.82%....+06.87%(my figures)
DW.=+02.36%.....S=...+02.30%....
EFA=+07.29%.....I=....+06.70%...
AGG= -00.43%.....F=...+01.39%...
...........................G=...+00.04%..
SB, Nice move up the tracker today. Right now Asia is showing green.
US Futures are in the Green but only marginaly. The Nikkei is on another
3% Rally right now too. I got my fingers crossed, but I'm keeping most
of my 25% in for the long haul anyway. I'll check the Automated Tracker
and thanks for the heads up.
INVSTSMRT78
Member
Nice jump Squalebear to the 49 spot! (Up from 65 or so)
Nice jump Squalebear to the 49 spot! (Up from 65 or so)
SB, Asia closed with some positive numbers but Europe is selling off their profits from yesterday. Looks like the I fund will be giving some back from a big day yesterday. Thanks again for the lead.
It was the best return I've ever had since tracking of my account began.
It's funny, I had a +6.84% gain. I must be one greedy bass terd because
I missed the 10/23/08 gain of +11.85% and the 10/13/08 gain of +16.50%
within the (I) Fund. After a moment of sad reflection, reality smacked me
back to consciousness. The limits prevented me from taking the Bull by
the horns (pun intended). The rules as they exist, would have required me
to be stay in the (I) Fund between both of the above dates to capture
a overall +7.35% gain during that time period. If I stayed in the (I) Fund
at 100% for the entire month, I would have lost a whopping -20.59%.
But when you get right down to it, I was right when making a move on
the speculation of a pre-election rally and got really, really LUCKY. Today
I speculated that the market could turn for the worst if the Democrats
took power in the House and Senate in conjunction with a Democratic
President. Adding insult to injury, the ADP Employment Report might show
the market that the Non Farm Payroll figures coming out on Friday could
kill any possible gain achieved. So I opt'd to bail out yesterday, but left
just enough at risk in case I was wrong. We'll see how that plays out soon
enough. Heck, November is a long month and I could be kicking myself in
the behind come December.
U.S. Oct ADP private employment down 157,000
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Companies in the U.S. private sector shed 157,000 jobs in October, according to the ADP employment report released Wednesday. The report comes two days before the Labor Department reports on nonfarm payroll growth for October. The report suggests that the job report could be very weak. Analysts note that the ADP has overshot the employment report in each of the past eleven months. The report was weak across the board. The goods-producing sector lost 126,000 jobs in October, while manufacturing lost 85,000 jobs. The service-producing sector shed 31,000 jobs.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/US-Oct-ADP-private-employment/story.aspx?guid=%7B110258A8%2D96C0%2D4DDE%2DAE3F%2DC56B3046BD2C%7D&dist=hplatest
Wall Street headed lower
Futures drop as economic woes come back into focus after Obama's historic presidential
victory. Sidenote: Europe is all most down by -2% and the day hasn't even begun yet.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/11/05/markets/stockswatch/index.htm?postversion=2008110508
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Companies in the U.S. private sector shed 157,000 jobs in October, according to the ADP employment report released Wednesday. The report comes two days before the Labor Department reports on nonfarm payroll growth for October. The report suggests that the job report could be very weak. Analysts note that the ADP has overshot the employment report in each of the past eleven months. The report was weak across the board. The goods-producing sector lost 126,000 jobs in October, while manufacturing lost 85,000 jobs. The service-producing sector shed 31,000 jobs.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/US-Oct-ADP-private-employment/story.aspx?guid=%7B110258A8%2D96C0%2D4DDE%2DAE3F%2DC56B3046BD2C%7D&dist=hplatest
Wall Street headed lower
Futures drop as economic woes come back into focus after Obama's historic presidential
victory. Sidenote: Europe is all most down by -2% and the day hasn't even begun yet.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/11/05/markets/stockswatch/index.htm?postversion=2008110508
I'm going to make a Rebalance IFT today. I have no more Regular IFT's left. I currently hold the following in each Fund;
75%(G) 5%(C) 15%(S) 5%(I)
If the market closed right now, my funds would have looked like this tomorrow;
75.3%(G)4.95%(C)14.84%(S)4.91%(I)
But I did a <1% IFT (allowable and within the rules) as follows today;
75%(G) 5%(C) 15%(S) 5%(I) The same that the TSP shows on their IFT webpage.
By doing this, my increase in shares would have been as follows;
I subtracted -29.7589 shares out of the (G)Fund.
I added 05.3797 shares to the (C) Fund.
I added 15.4544 shares to my (S) Fund.
I added 07.5247 shares to my (I) Fund.
By doing this, I also add more $$$$ to each fund instead of letting the
loss ride and holding onto less shares at a greater original cost. This is
a form of DCA'ing by purchasing more shares at a lower price. Tomorrow,
if the funds recover half of todays losses, I break even instead of being
still down. Just thought I'd share this again. Many have asked me about
this method.
75%(G) 5%(C) 15%(S) 5%(I)
If the market closed right now, my funds would have looked like this tomorrow;
75.3%(G)4.95%(C)14.84%(S)4.91%(I)
But I did a <1% IFT (allowable and within the rules) as follows today;
75%(G) 5%(C) 15%(S) 5%(I) The same that the TSP shows on their IFT webpage.
By doing this, my increase in shares would have been as follows;
I subtracted -29.7589 shares out of the (G)Fund.
I added 05.3797 shares to the (C) Fund.
I added 15.4544 shares to my (S) Fund.
I added 07.5247 shares to my (I) Fund.
By doing this, I also add more $$$$ to each fund instead of letting the
loss ride and holding onto less shares at a greater original cost. This is
a form of DCA'ing by purchasing more shares at a lower price. Tomorrow,
if the funds recover half of todays losses, I break even instead of being
still down. Just thought I'd share this again. Many have asked me about
this method.
CountryBoy
Well-known member
CB, I use a MS Works spreadsheet.
It estimates closing share price based on current market returns.
It also estimates my account balance. The rest is in the calculations.
Its not fool proof, what if the market rallies after noon !
CountryBoy
Well-known member
Thanks Bud,
Nothings foolproof, but we need to use every bit of leverage we got.
CB
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