Squalebear's Account Talk

[Guest2]

YTD O/D FOR ALL TSP FUNDS

(C) Fund vs. the SPX = 0.1834 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.69%
(S) Fund vs. DWCPF. = 0.2305 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.79%
(I). Fund vs. the EFA = 0.0987 TSP Cent Overpayment or +0.67%:nuts:

DAILY (I) FUND VS. EFA O/D TRACKING RESULTS:

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(09/15/08) +0.8638% -0.3323 tsp cents
(09/16/08) -0.2278% -0.2873 tsp cents
(09/17/08) +0.8268% -0.4262 tsp cents
(09/18/08) -2.0361% -0.0642 tsp cents
(09/19/08) -0.4960%+0.0283 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(09/22/08)+2.5382% -0.4628 tsp cents
(09/23/08) -0.8997% -0.2822 tsp cents
(09/24/08) -0.2518% -0.2347 tsp cents
(09/25/08) -0.5076% -0.1412 tsp cents
(09/26/08) +0.3903% -0.2149 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(09/29/08)+2.3205% -0.6001 tsp cents
(09/30/08) -3.4591%+0.0025 tsp cents
(10/01/08) -0.7365% -0.1291 tsp cents
(10/02/08) -0.0580% -0.1135 tsp cents
(10/03/08)+0.6851% -0.2312 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/06/08) -0.1022% -0.2014 tsp cents
(10/07/08)+1.0228% -0.3531 tsp cents
(10/08/08) -1.3004% -0.1455 tsp cents
(10/09/08)+1.1848% -0.3078 tsp cents
(10/10/08) -0.6113% -0.2109 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/13/08) +0.6117% -0.3431 tsp cents
(10/14/08) -1.0454% -0.1711 tsp cents
(10/15/08) +0.9341% -0.2846 tsp cents
(10/16/08) -1.7110% -0.0482 tsp cents
(10/17/08) +0.3405% -0.0987 tsp cents:nuts:

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/20/08) 0.0000% 0.0000 tsp cents


THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .6000 thru -.4000 High Overpayment (Payback Past Due)
- .4000 thru -.3000 Elavated Overpayment, (Payback Immanent)
- .3000 thru -.2000 Medium Overpayment (Flip A Coin)
- .2000 thru -.1000 Low Overpayment, (Slightly Over Goal)
- .1000 thru -.0000 Minimum Overpayment (Goal is Met):nuts:
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Lower)
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming !
---------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Guest2]

YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX= -35.95%.....C=...-34.83%....-17.10% (my figures):nuts:
DW.= -36.02%.....S=.. -34.93%....
EFA= -43.30%......I=...-42.46%...
AGG= -07.00%.....F=...-01.17%...
...........................G=...+03.04%...

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX= -19.36%.....C=...-19.29%....-11.87%(my figures)
DW.= -22.06%.....S=.. -22.47%....
EFA= -20.94%.....I=....-20.30%...
AGG= -04.56%.....F=...-01.99%...
............................G=..+00.17%..

 

[Guest2]

Weekly Wrap

Last Update: 17-Oct-08 16:57 ET

Does it get any crazier than this past week? Let’s hope not, unless of course the end result remains the same. In the week that just concluded the S&P 500 managed to record both its largest, single day point gain ever as well as its second largest, single day point loss ever. Meanwhile, the intraday swings throughout the week were epic.

The S&P moved in a 9.5% range in Thursday’s session alone. For some perspective, consider that the S&P gained 3.5% for all of 2007. The volatility was a by-product of a host of factors that ranged from reports of forced liquidation by hedge funds to reports of strains easing in the credit market after massive liquidity injections by central banks.

To be sure, the week got off to an eye-popping start as the market soared 11.7% in a snapback rally from greatly oversold conditions. Word that Morgan Stanley (MS) completed a deal to receive a $9 billion capital injection from Japanese bank Mitsubishi UFJ, central bank plans to provide as much dollar liquidity as needed for short-term funding markets, and news that several European countries were guaranteeing interbank lending provided the spark for Monday’s rally.

In addition, speculation that the U.S. Treasury would be making a direct capital injection of as much as $250 billion in U.S. banks, that it would guarantee bank debt, and that the FDIC would guarantee deposits in non-interest bearing deposit accounts also fueled the buying efforts. The speculation turned to fact Tuesday when the Treasury formally announced like measures. In particular, it said it would invest $125 billion in the preferred stock of nine, major institutions – Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase, State Street, Bank of New York Mellon, Citigroup and Morgan Stanley – and direct another $125 billion toward other banks in a capital injecting initiative that mandated curbs on executive compensation for participating entities.

In the wake of Monday’s surge, however, the market stumbled Tuesday on some profit taking activity and lingering concerns about the economic outlook. The economic concerns came home to roost on Wednesday in a battery of worrisome updates. Specifically, it was reported that retail sales declined 1.2% in September, with declines seen across all discretionary spending categories. That news, combined with a downtrodden Beige Book report that revealed slowing activity in all 12 Fed districts, and a reminder from Fed Chairman Bernanke that the economic recovery won’t happen right away, even with a stabilization of the financial system, helped drive the market 9.0% lower, marking one of its worst percentage declines in history.

An escalation of selling interest late in Wednesday’s trade gave life to reports that there was forced selling by hedge funds. That selling carried over into early trading Thursday. The S&P 500 fell another 4.6% and the volatility index (“VIX”), otherwise known as the fear gauge, spiked to an all-time high. Then, in an instant, sentiment shifted and the market began a furious recovery effort that left it up 4.3% at the close. That rally saw retailers and transportation stocks bounce back sharply with oil prices dropping below $70 per barrel at one juncture. The drop in oil prices followed a weak industrial production report and reflected underlying concerns about the prospect of a global recession. OPEC is slated to meet Oct. 24 to discuss oil prices and it is expected that the cartel, having seen prices plummet more than 50% from the all-time high reached in July, will announce a production cut. Friday’s session was another roller coaster ride. The S&P 500 swung 7.2% between its low and high points of the day amid alternating feelings surrounding the weakest level of housing starts reported since January 1991, Warren Buffett’s acknowledgment that he is buying American stocks for his personal portfolio, and encouraging others to do the same, and a heavy load of expiring options on stock indexes, stocks and exchange traded funds. In the midst of all that transpired, we’d be remiss if we didn’t mention that the third quarter earnings reporting season kicked in to full swing this week.

Financial and technology companies led the barrage of reporters that included the likes of Citigroup (C), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), Merrill Lynch (MER), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), PepsiCo (PEP), Intel (INTC), IBM (IBM), Google (GOOG) and eBay (EBAY) to name a few. Third quarter results themselves were largely mixed, yet the key consideration for the market was that few, if any, companies really extolled their near-term prospects. Several companies bemoaned a lack of earnings visibility on account of the economic environment. So, both the earnings results and economic data this week were fairly unimpressive, yet the market still managed a 4.6% gain. Then again, with the market plunging 18.2% in the prior week, some bargain hunting activity was to be expected. Signs of improvement in the credit market aided in the buying efforts. The overnight Libor rate dropped to 1.67% from 5.09% last week; overnight commercial paper rates fell to 1.05% from 3.50% last week; and the TED spread, the difference between 3-month Libor and the 3-month T-bill, narrowed 100 basis points from last week to 3.63%. However, the fact that 3-month Libor rates didn’t come down nearly as much as overnight rates (only ~40 basis points from last week’s peak) contributed to a sense of uncertainty about the pace of recovery in the credit market. Until that uncertainty is removed, the stock market is expected to keep trading in a rudderless fashion as emotion, more so than fundamentals, will steer the action.

--Patrick J. O'Hare, Briefing.com

 

[Guest2]

Temporary Overpayment Reversal To The Deficit
Side Of The O/D Tracker Is Formed !

When the Fund Managers decided to put extra money into the (I) Fund
in June, It caused the O/D Tracker to jump from the "They Owe Us" area,
to the "We Owe Them" area. This was extremely unusual as the O/D
Tracker was in the "They Owe Us" area for 3 full years prior (since the
begining of my comparison tracking of the EFA and (I) Fund. Well, we've
jumped the train tracks again (seen before) and time will tell if its a long
term reversal or just temporary. For you (I) Funder's, if recent history
holds true, we can expect a jump back to the Overpayment Side. The Fund
Managers would allow the (I) Fund to outperform the EFA by giving the
(I) some extra gains in comparison. Lets hope it happens on a up day for
the market. Such would be sweeter then Hershey's Chocolate.

YTD O/D FOR ALL TSP FUNDS

(C) Fund vs. the SPX = 0.1931 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.71%
(S) Fund vs. DWCPF. = 0.2474 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.84%
(I). Fund vs. the EFA = 0.0048 TSP Cent Overpayment or -0.03%

DAILY (I) FUND VS. EFA O/D TRACKING RESULTS:

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(09/22/08)+2.5382% -0.4628 tsp cents
(09/23/08) -0.8997% -0.2822 tsp cents
(09/24/08) -0.2518% -0.2347 tsp cents
(09/25/08) -0.5076% -0.1412 tsp cents
(09/26/08) +0.3903% -0.2149 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(09/29/08)+2.3205% -0.6001 tsp cents
(09/30/08) -3.4591%+0.0025 tsp cents
(10/01/08) -0.7365% -0.1291 tsp cents
(10/02/08) -0.0580% -0.1135 tsp cents
(10/03/08)+0.6851% -0.2312 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/06/08) -0.1022% -0.2014 tsp cents
(10/07/08)+1.0228% -0.3531 tsp cents
(10/08/08) -1.3004% -0.1455 tsp cents
(10/09/08)+1.1848% -0.3078 tsp cents
(10/10/08) -0.6113% -0.2109 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/13/08) +0.6117% -0.3431 tsp cents
(10/14/08) -1.0454% -0.1711 tsp cents
(10/15/08) +0.9341% -0.2846 tsp cents
(10/16/08) -1.7110% -0.0482 tsp cents
(10/17/08) +0.3405% -0.0987 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/20/08) -0.7050% +0.0048 tsp cents

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .6000 thru -.4000 High Overpayment (Payback Past Due)
- .4000 thru -.3000 Elavated Overpayment, (Payback Immanent)
- .3000 thru -.2000 Medium Overpayment (Flip A Coin)
- .2000 thru -.1000 Low Overpayment, (Slightly Over Goal)
- .1000 thru -.0000 Minimum Overpayment (Goal is Met)
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Lower)
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming !
---------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Guest2]

On a YTD Basis, Its still good to see that I'm close to half the loses in
the High Risk Funds. From the looks in the Automated Tracker; bad moves,
poor timing and holding onto losing funds could have dramatically made the
TSP YTD loses even worse then the -30% range. For this I'm greatful. As
far as the MTD figures, I'm not content but it still could have been worse
considering the kind of October we've seen. All in all, this look back into
time reminds me that I've been right more then wrong and allows me to
stay focused on whats ahead. I (my gut) speculated that today would
close strong and wanted to take some profits off the table. So I made a
normal IFT and lowered my exposure in the Risk Funds by 10% and I'm
in at 15%(C) 15%(S) 70%(G) come Tuesday's trading.


YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX= -32.89%.....C=...-31.71%....-15.41% (my figures)
DW.= -33.37%.....S=.. -32.20%....
EFA= -39.68%......I=...-39.19%...
AGG= -05.34%.....F=...-00.75%...
...........................G=...+03.07%...

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX= -15.51%.....C=...-14.51%....-10.23%(my figures):worried:
DW.= -18.83%.....S=.. -18.27%....
EFA= -15.90%.....I=....-14.62%...
AGG= -02.86%.....F=...-01.56%...
............................G=..+00.20%..

 

[Guest2]

2009 Thrift Savings Plan Contribution Limits
October 16, 2008

The 2009 Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) contribution limit is $16,500
(an increase of $1,000 from 2008). Also, the 2009 TSP Catch-Up
contribution limit is $5,500 (a $500 increase from 2008). TSP maximum
contribution limits are determined by the IRS and indexed by inflation.
They are adjusted annually in $500 increments. ​

http://www.myfederalretirement.com/public/274.cfm

 

[Guest2]

Oooops, Error Correction !

YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX= -32.89%.....C=...-31.71%....-15.41% (my figures)
DW.= -33.37%.....S=.. -32.20%....
EFA= -39.68%......I=...-39.19%...
AGG= -05.34%.....F=...-00.75%...
...........................G=...+03.07%...

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX= -15.51%.....C=...-15.43%....-10.23%(my figures):blink:
DW.= -18.83%.....S=.. -19.21%....
EFA= -15.90%.....I=....-15.77%...
AGG= -02.86%.....F=...-01.57%...
............................G=..+00.20%..

 

[justbizness45]

2009 Thrift Savings Plan Contribution Limits
October 16, 2008

The 2009 Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) contribution limit is $16,500
(an increase of $1,000 from 2008). Also, the 2009 TSP Catch-Up
contribution limit is $5,500 (a $500 increase from 2008). TSP maximum
contribution limits are determined by the IRS and indexed by inflation.
They are adjusted annually in $500 increments. ​

http://www.myfederalretirement.com/public/274.cfm

Cool, another 1500 a year I can invest. Thanks SB!! I was looking for this the other day and it wasn't out yet.

 

[Guest2]

Cool, another 1500 a year I can invest. Thanks SB!! I was looking for this the other day and it wasn't out yet.

You're extremely fortunate and one smart cookie ! You've made it possible
to invest the maximum allowable contributions plus the maximum catch-up
contribution to your TSP. Thats what I call; "Smart Money". Affordability
has restricted (hate that word) me to 17% of my Base Salary. I utilize my
COLA each year to increase my contributions. This years 3.9% increase
will help. You should be proud of yourself for accomplishing something that
sounds easy, but is oh so hard to do. Way To Go !

 

[justbizness45]

You're extremely fortunate and one smart cookie ! You've made it possible
to invest the maximum allowable contributions plus the maximum catch-up
contribution to your TSP. Thats what I call; "Smart Money". Affordability
has restricted (hate that word) me to 17% of my Base Salary. I utilize my
COLA each year to increase my contributions. This years 3.9% increase
will help. You should be proud of yourself for accomplishing something that
sounds easy, but is oh so hard to do. Way To Go !

Maybe smarter now, unfortunately I didn't invest anything the first 40 some years of my life so I am truely playing catch up.:cheesy: Hopefully some of the younger newbies will read this and learn from my failure. Invest, invest, invest people!!

 

[Guest2]

Maybe smarter now, unfortunately I didn't invest anything the first 40 some years of my life so I am truely playing catch up. Hopefully some of the younger newbies will read this and learn from my failure. Invest, invest, invest people!!

Hind sight is 20/20 and your now doing everything in your power to offset
years of failed communications between the Federal Government and its
loyal employees. If there is a failure to speak of, you hold a very small
percentage of the blame. Even in this day of hightened awareness, they
continue to fail in educating the typical TSP participant of the facts.

Newbies, Novices and Old Heads can benefit from your sound words of
wisdom and advice. Social Security should not be counted on to suppliment
ones retirement in 30 years. If it still exists, then its icing on the cake!

 

[Guest2]

Thinks To Think About;

a) AFTER HOURS EARNINGS REPORTS (Today) 10/21
Some big companies are reporting earnings after the bell. Even if the
earnings are split both negative and positive, its their 2009 outlook
which brings the market woes (my guess).

a) CRUDE INVENTORIES (Wednesday) 10/22
Demand is still decreasing and OPEC will likely lower production by 2 Million
Barrels per day (my guess). Not enough to offset the drop in demand. Crude
goes back down to the high $60 level (my guess)

b) INTITIAL CLAIMS (Thursday) 10/23
Initial jobless claims shows the number of filings for Unemployment
benefits. This is not expected to help the market (my guess).

c) AUGUST EXISTING HOME SALES (Friday) 10/24
Existing home sales remain at low levels, however, they have leveled off
over the last eight months. It'll be interesting to see how much existing
homes depreciated during the month of August. Flip a coin on this data.
Money sitting in equities over the weekend isn't happening. Even on a
small rally based on good news, we could see a selloff by days end.
(my guess).

 

[Guest2]

At approximately 10:25am the Market turns mixed to the positive side.
Its going to be one of those $VIX kind of days. Not extreme, but like a
Ping Pong Tournment in China. Back and forth, back and forth.

 

[Scout333]

Hello SB, I think I have the basic concept down for the <1% IFTs. I have 100% G for now but my contributions go into C S & I prorata end of the day today. As I understand your strategy, I need to wait until I have some % in the C S & I funds to round up or down by 1%. i.e. if I have .3% in C, .3% in S, and .4% in I then I could IFT up to 1% in C S & I funds. This would bring my G balance down to 97%. Thanks for your help!

 

[Guest2]

Hello SB, I think I have the basic concept down for the <1% IFTs. I have 100% G for now but my contributions go into C S & I prorata end of the day today. As I understand your strategy, I need to wait until I have some % in the C S & I funds to round up or down by 1%. i.e. if I have .3% in C, .3% in S, and .4% in I then I could IFT up to 1% in C S & I funds. This would bring my G balance down to 97%. Thanks for your help!

Its my pleasure. The only thing I wanted to tell you in addition was the following;

Yesterday, I made a IFT of 15%(C) 15%(S) 70%(G).
Today, that is my current allocation. 15-15-70.

But what happens if I do the same today but with the same percentages?

If the (C) & (S) closed down today by -.50% that would have left me
invested at 14.5%(C) 14.5%(S) 69%(G),,,,,however,,,,,,because I did
a IFT at the 15-15-70 level, it will rebalance my levels to that. And again
I'd be adding to the (C) & (S) from the (G). If the funds ended up +.50%
I would have had 15.5%-15.5%-69%,,,, however,,,,, I would have taken
the half percent gains off the table and back to the (G). This is exactly
what the (L) Funds do on a daily basis. Its called rebalancing.

Again, glad I could help !

 

[jimijr]

Rebalancing is the key! Pick your allocation and do it monthly, or every pay period. This guarantees you will buy low and sell high.

 

[KevinD]

SB - Do you recommend the rebalancing act and if so how often?

I may have gotten the wrong impression but your post didn't sound too favorable toward the L funds.

(I know that most people here don't do L)

 

[Guest2]

Rebalancing is the key! Pick your allocation and do it monthly, or every pay period. This guarantees you will buy low and sell high.

First, welcome to my thread and thanks for sharing your thoughts. Please
do it often. What I believe it does is level the gains and losses over time.
If the market was (its not) more up then down, the gains would not be as
significant as a buy and hold or Hit & Run strategy. Same as with the (L)
Funds. On the otherhand, the loses wouldn't be as great either in a down
sided market. I'm playing with it as a DCA kinda tool for now, as I'm without
+1% IFT's right now. It also keeps my head in the game while I await the
upcoming release from bondage on November 3rd, 2008.

 

[Steadygain]

Rebalancing is the key! Pick your allocation and do it monthly, or every pay period. This guarantees you will buy low and sell high.

Jimijr,
I'm honored to read your posts and it sounds like you have quite a bit of experience behind you. I'm a lot newer at this (as are many others on the MB) SO we really appreciate your advice.

I want to make sure I understand this:​

If shifting (or rebalancing) our allocations bi-weekly (or monthly minimum) guarantees WE BUY LOW and SELL HIGH - then it honestly makes no difference how the Markets go from month to month as long as we keep changing - is this what you are saying is "the KEY" to winning the Markets??


SORRY SB; I didn't realize it was a question ..... dud...I just got on.

 

[Guest2]

SB - Do you recommend the rebalancing act and if so how often?

I may have gotten the wrong impression but your post didn't sound too favorable toward the L funds.

(I know that most people here don't do L)

The (L) Funds can be important based on Time and Your Ability to play
the IFT game to your advantage. I'm a short timer with 1.75-6.75 years
left before I retire. If you don't have the time to research, evaluate and
make sound IFT decisions, the (L) Funds might be good for you. With that
said, many within these walls utilize IFT's to beat the market and the TSP
risk funds. As bad as this year has been, please take note of those in the
automated tracker. Success is being had. I've beaten the (C)(S)(I) for
several years now by using the IFT to my advantage. Today I'm down
-15.41% YTD, however, I'm still beating the risk funds by almost double.

The reasons I rebalance my portfolio with <1% IFT's was just posted.
Please take a look back a few posts to see what I wrote. IMHO, the (L)
Funds are no where nearly as advantageous as playing the IFT shuffle.
Even with Limitations, the numbers speak for themselves.