Squalebear's Account Talk

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ATTENTION:
:)
It only took me One Hour to change my mind !
I'm staying ! I'm going hard ! In fact, I upped
my holdings to 16%(C) 15%(S) and 69%(G).
If I must, I'll do it again on Monday. Say some
prayers for me and my Account. HEY, It can't hurt !
Share Accumulation is what I'm talking about !
:)​
 
Last edited:
The only thing I fear today is that someone will ask me for a DNA test.
I'm begining to sound a lot like another respected Member on this MB
and I'm afraid that DNA will show that I have BBB ! Thats right folks,
I've got a bad case of Birch Born Bull in me ! :nuts: God Bless him !
 
Son, I like your common sense approach to staying the coarse. I burned 16 buys on the open and will probably do more before the close. Now is the time to be greedy - throw caution to the wind.
 
SQ,

I'm in the trenches waiting it out like you and a few others. Pass the hip flask will ya? Could use a few fingers of burbon to gird the loins today...

Turbo23dog
 
Birchtree said:
Son, I like your common sense approach to staying the coarse. I burned 16 buys on the open and will probably do more before the close. Now is the time to be greedy - throw caution to the wind.
Click to expand...

Thanks Birch, say a prayer for me anyway !

Mondays 4%-5% Rally seems to be eons ago. I'm accumulating shares
on the way down. I feel the bottom is closer then ever before. Here's
the game plan. I have no more >1% IFT's left. But I'm rebalancing the
(C) and the (S) with the <1% IFT's I can use. It appears to be working
nicely. Here's how I've accumulated shares since that Monday Rally.

Tuesday:
(C) = 1585.0838 shares
(S) = 1336.0343 shares

Wednesday:
(C) = 1628.4108 shares
(S) = 1366.3445 shares

Thursday:
(C) = 1703.2727 shares
(S) = 1422.8973 shares

Friday:
(C) = 1703.2727 shares
(S) = 1422.8973 shares

Monday: (ESTIMATED)
(C) = 1835.5992 shares
(S) = 1490.3476 shares

I'm only Investing 31% of my total TSP Balance based on my risk
tolerance, but I'm gathering shares in the risk funds at the expense
of the (G) Fund. In 6 more trading days, I'll re-evaluate my position
as suffering the burden of bitter bondage {10 Comandments Reference}
will be lifted. "Pharo, Let My People Go!" ;) Thanks pappa ! ;)
 
turbo23dog said:
SQ,

I'm in the trenches waiting it out like you and a few others. Pass the hip flask will ya? Could use a few fingers of burbon to gird the loins today...

Turbo23dog
Click to expand...

Turbo, that chocolate milk in my hip-flask was finish days ago !
I guess its time to fill her up again. This time, I'm putting in more
chocolate and less milk. At this rate, I'll be Diabetic before years
end. :nuts: Just in time for the hightened premium of my FEHB Plan. :mad:
Good Luck out there ! Your not alone ! ;)
 
With todays improved Existing Home Sales figure, will it carry over to
New Home Sales figures due out at 10am Monday ? If so, will it be enough ? :confused:

Does Tuesday Rally on speculation of a Wednesday 0.50/0.75 rate cut?
Or, will the Consumer Confidence Report drag the Markets into the pit of hell? :confused:

Will Uncle Ben open his trap on Wednesday and kill any hopes of a rally? :confused:

Stay Tuned for these and many more unanswered questions !
Same Bat Time - Same Bat Channel ! :laugh:
 
squalebear said:
With todays improved Existing Home Sales figure, will it carry over to
New Home Sales figures due out at 10am Monday ? If so, will it be enough ? :confused:
No,
Does Tuesday Rally on speculation of a Wednesday 0.50/0.75 rate cut?
Or, will the Consumer Confidence Report drag the Markets into the pit of hell? :confused:
Welcome to the pit of despair
Will Uncle Ben open his trap on Wednesday and kill any hopes of a rally? :confused:
Heck, when I talk the markets go down!!!!!!
Stay Tuned for these and many more unanswered questions !
Same Bat Time - Same Bat Channel ! :laugh:
Click to expand...
The Joker set us up, the Penguin knocked it down, and Scarecrow keeps trying to taint the Koolaid.
 
SOMETHING IS BREWING AND IT AIN'T COFFEE !
Well, it appears that that fund managers have taken a break from the
emmence swings in the O/D Tracker. The last two weeks have looked
like years before, but only on the Overpayment Side instead of the Deficit
Side. This could be temporary, however, it certainly looks stable and the
past proved to be more predictable. The (C) - (S) and (I) are all in the
Black Area of the Tracker. Something has got to be in the works, I can
just feel it. Hopefully, it won't be painted in red. Have a Great Weekend !

YTD O/D FOR ALL TSP FUNDS

(C) Fund vs. the SPX = 0.1721 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.71%
(S) Fund vs. DWCPF. = 0.1761 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.52%
(I). Fund vs. the EFA = 0.0725 TSP Cent Overpayment or +0.57%:eek:

DAILY (I) FUND VS. EFA O/D TRACKING RESULTS:

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(09/29/08)+2.3205% -0.6001 tsp cents
(09/30/08) -3.4591%+0.0025 tsp cents
(10/01/08) -0.7365% -0.1291 tsp cents
(10/02/08) -0.0580% -0.1135 tsp cents
(10/03/08)+0.6851% -0.2312 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/06/08) -0.1022% -0.2014 tsp cents
(10/07/08)+1.0228% -0.3531 tsp cents
(10/08/08) -1.3004% -0.1455 tsp cents
(10/09/08)+1.1848% -0.3078 tsp cents
(10/10/08) -0.6113% -0.2109 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/13/08) +0.6117% -0.3431 tsp cents
(10/14/08) -1.0454% -0.1711 tsp cents
(10/15/08) +0.9341% -0.2846 tsp cents
(10/16/08) -1.7110% -0.0482 tsp cents
(10/17/08) +0.3405% -0.0987 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/20/08) -0.7050%+0.0048 tsp cents
(10/21/08)+0.8721% -0.1205 tsp cents
(10/22/08)+0.5115% -0.1807 tsp cents
(10/23/08) -0.3743%+0.1331 tsp cents
(10/24/08) -0.4057%+0.0725 tsp cents:eek:

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/27/08) -0.0000%+0.0000 tsp cents

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .6000 thru -.4000 High Overpayment (Payback Past Due)
- .4000 thru -.3000 Elavated Overpayment, (Payback Immanent)
- .3000 thru -.2000 Medium Overpayment (Flip A Coin)
- .2000 thru -.1000 Low Overpayment, (Slightly Over Goal)
- .1000 thru -.0000 Minimum Overpayment (Goal is Met):eek:
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Lower)
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming !
---------------------------------------------------------------------
 
YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX= -40.29%.....C=...-39.23%....-18.90% (my figures):toung:
DW.= -42.18%.....S=.. -41.36%....
EFA= -49.57%......I=...-48.82%...
AGG= -05.90%.....F=...-00.39%...
...........................G=...+03.11%...

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX= -24.83%.....C=...-24.75%....-13.62%(my figures):cheesy:
DW.= -29.55%.....S=.. -30.13%....
EFA= -29.68%.....I=....-29.10%...
AGG= -03.44%.....F=...-01.22%...
............................G=..+00.24%..
 
This is one busy weekend ! Weddings, Family Gatherings etc...
I look forward to reading some thoughts about this coming week
and the Hopes for a Bear Bounce before the National Election.

Come one, Come all ! I'll be back soon enough to throw in some thoughts myself !
 
TO EACH THEIR OWN !

I've never been much of a Buy and Hold type investor. Many of you might have described my method as being more of a "Hit or Miss IFT Abuser". I accept the title with pride as it has served me well over the past few years. Circumstances and Time can change a great many things. Both in the sense of a impending retirement date and current market conditions. I can't begin to tell you how much I miss the days of entering the risk funds a day or two early (pooh) and capturing a good economic report that would thrust me into pulling the trigger and locking in acceptional gains. But the Bull turned into a Bear. The Confidence turned into Fear. The Gains turned into Loses. The Freedom turned into Limits. The Economy has turned into Crap. Whether you call it Methodology or Strategy, Market Timing or Frequent Trading, our investment world has changed. Some say for the better (not many of us) some say it couldn't get worse. With all that has changed over the past year, so too has my need to adjust and make the best out of what lies ahead. Never before have you seen me accumulate shares within the TSP as part of my strategy. But your seeing it now. I would never have done this when the Market started to turn bad. In fact, you should take note that my YTD losses are less then half of the current risk fund loses. If I started accumulating shares back in January, I would have had twice the loses to contend with. Based on my lack of experience, I've called "Blood In The Streets" at least three times now.

No, I won't call a bottom ! Simply because those who do, tend to be disappointed and get buried by loses. The more the market goes down, the more confidence I gain in being closer to the bottom. I decided to start my share accumulation in anticipation of a Bear Rally of tremendous proportion. I'm not the only one looking for capitulation and a +20% gain in the near future. Some who get paid the big bucks are calling this too. But I'm watching closely! I'm trying to take the fear and turn it into a positive. And, if I'm wrong, it won't be the first nor last time. Those members who believe its 2-3 months of doom from here might very well be right. Those who choose to sit it out in the (G) Fund might very well be right. Those who risk 100% of their retirement money come Monday, night very well be right. Ultimately, what determines what's right and whats wrong is based on Personal Circumstances, Time and Risk Tolerance. So when you see this evolution I find myself experiencing, please understand. Its all a learning process for me and every other glorious member here at TSPtalk.com and it isn't one of choice, but one out of circumstance. When that is taken into consideration, one must truly say; To Each Their Own.

Well its time to go to the Reception (the best part) and I don't think I'll be able to express my thoughts as clearly as I have in the above Novel. Its party time and I'm gonna have one, for each and every one of you! God Bless and See Ya Tomorrow (ok, I'll see your avitars tomorrow) :toung:
 
Believe it or not I used to be like you many years ago - and then I became an evangelical buy and holder. I absorb the flowers of pain when I'm buying because each one hurts just a little - but then the day arrives when everything in the portfolio will sing. You are gaining from your experience - my knowledge gained from experience leading to common sense is all I have to support my positions - I never listen to anyone except myself. That way I blame no one for my travails and accept my accolades with humility - after all it is my hard earned money to kiss away as I see fit. The natural instinct of all of us is to seek safety and shelter, unfortunately at the exact same time when we should be aggressive and risk tolerant. It's very diffiucult to adhere to this strategy. Those who do well in the market understand this natural human tendency and they consistently work against it when others are doing the exact opposite. Just ride the thunder. Many scared folks out of panic emotion jettison everything, regardless of fundamentals or intrinsic value, and as the panic approaches maximum intensity and prices accelerate into a verticle descent, Birchtree moves in and vacuums yp all the trashed securities at firesale prices and then sits back and relaxes, perhaps assured of nice profits as prices stabilize ahead of the next long upleg - it's really that easy. But you have to enjoy pain because you will feel terribly uncomfortable investing at or close to the bottom. I always make sure there is water in the well.
 
Nice discussion Squalebear.

Your YTD % is VERY GOOD. Mine was awesome at one point then, with 1 IFT decision based on the ol' buy and hold, long term, etc argument, I felt it was best to get back in. What timing...7 down days in a row right after. I would have taken some out after the first 5% but I was scared of a rebound before Nov 1st...stupid TSP IFT limit!:mad:

Here is my take. Want to make the gutsy call to make the big bucks? Go 100 G right now, no matter where you have been in the past. I'll be selling into rallies until I am 100G as well. Wait for it to go down and buy back 20%-30% lower from now. This is opposite of what Birch would tell you, but we will be in a bear market until proven otherwise...and....as I see it, there is almost a ZERO % chance that we have a "sudden" turnaround economically and miss a bull market. Nope, not gonna happen.

I'm swinging for the fences and going for the big one...buy in < 700 on the S&P. Maybe 500-600. Birch may have been right over the past 75 years, but we are experiencing a black swan event and the full extent is unseen.
 
Corepuncher said:
Nice discussion Squalebear.

Your YTD % is VERY GOOD. Mine was awesome at one point then, with 1 IFT decision based on the ol' buy and hold, long term, etc argument, I felt it was best to get back in. What timing...7 down days in a row right after. I would have taken some out after the first 5% but I was scared of a rebound before Nov 1st...stupid TSP IFT limit!:mad:

Here is my take. Want to make the gutsy call to make the big bucks? Go 100 G right now, no matter where you have been in the past. I'll be selling into rallies until I am 100G as well. Wait for it to go down and buy back 20%-30% lower from now. This is opposite of what Birch would tell you, but we will be in a bear market until proven otherwise...and....as I see it, there is almost a ZERO % chance that we have a "sudden" turnaround economically and miss a bull market. Nope, not gonna happen.



I'm swinging for the fences and going for the big one...buy in < 700 on the S&P. Maybe 500-600. Birch may have been right over the past 75 years, but we are experiencing a black swan event and the full extent is unseen.
Click to expand...

All I'm going to say is... YOU ARE RIGHT COREPUNCHER :D
 
I'm currently spending myself into dire pain and it hurts so good at these golden prices. If we are in a bear market it is only a cyclical bear inside a continuing mega trend secular bull market that will rise again just like the Phoenix. The hedge funds and other institutions are so far doing a very good job of fooling the majority of traders/investors into thinking that we are in a bear market. Even the MCSUMs have been pushed down to over -1500. I believe that both the bear market and the recession is a sham - now don't fall off your chairs. The NYSE breadth MCSUM (McClellan Summation Index) has not been this oversold since 1998. Money will pour into the market at hyperspeed and will not look back to retest. The cash levels are higher than the start of any bull market of the past 30 years. I'll be there....waiting patiently, buying more pain flowers until the money is gone. When we start up I'll sell a few sweeties to raise cash and then resume buying all the way back up - just like in my TSP tugboat account - man $10.06 in the C fund is fine dinning. Since I'm on a roll tonight - what kind of temperment is needed to be a good investor? Tenacity is vital. So is patience. And so, too, is an ability to keep some perspective. The Birchtree must me a damn saint.
 
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