Squalebear's Account Talk

[Guest2]

Yeah, and got to wonder why I'm one of those few -- GL to you also. Glad your day went so good also....

Thanks Bama, I'm sure you know why we're a couple of the few. Even if
the good reasons are running out faster then investors in the market.

 

[Guest2]

S&P projects worst christmas retail sales
since 09/11 but the market probably has that
absorbed into its current pricing of stocks. In
fact DOW goes positive just moments after the
release of this information. For now !

 

[Guest2]

YTD O/D FOR ALL TSP FUNDS

(C) Fund vs. the SPX = 0.1673 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.72%
(S) Fund vs. DWCPF. = 0.1608 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.45%
(I). Fund vs. the EFA = 0.1282 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.06%

DAILY (I) FUND VS. EFA O/D TRACKING RESULTS:

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(09/29/08)+2.3205% -0.6001 tsp cents
(09/30/08) -3.4591%+0.0025 tsp cents
(10/01/08) -0.7365% -0.1291 tsp cents
(10/02/08) -0.0580% -0.1135 tsp cents
(10/03/08)+0.6851% -0.2312 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/06/08) -0.1022% -0.2014 tsp cents
(10/07/08)+1.0228% -0.3531 tsp cents
(10/08/08) -1.3004% -0.1455 tsp cents
(10/09/08)+1.1848% -0.3078 tsp cents
(10/10/08) -0.6113% -0.2109 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/13/08) +0.6117% -0.3431 tsp cents
(10/14/08) -1.0454% -0.1711 tsp cents
(10/15/08) +0.9341% -0.2846 tsp cents
(10/16/08) -1.7110% -0.0482 tsp cents
(10/17/08) +0.3405% -0.0987 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/20/08) -0.7050%+0.0048 tsp cents
(10/21/08)+0.8721% -0.1205 tsp cents
(10/22/08)+0.5115% -0.1807 tsp cents
(10/23/08) -0.3743%+0.1331 tsp cents
(10/24/08) -0.4057%+0.0725 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/27/08) -0.4900%+0.1282 tsp cents

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .6000 thru -.4000 High Overpayment (Payback Past Due)
- .4000 thru -.3000 Elavated Overpayment, (Payback Immanent)
- .3000 thru -.2000 Medium Overpayment (Flip A Coin)
- .2000 thru -.1000 Low Overpayment, (Slightly Over Goal)
- .1000 thru -.0000 Minimum Overpayment (Goal is Met)
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Lower)
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming !
---------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Guest2]

YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX= -42.19%.....C=...-41.16%....-19.95% (my figures)
DW.= -44.78%.....S=.. -44.04%....
EFA= -52.22%......I=...-51.26%...
AGG= -06.84%.....F=...-00.87%...
...........................G=...+03.14%...

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX= -27.22%.....C=...-27.13%....-14.64%(my figures)
DW.= -32.72%.....S=.. -33.32%....
EFA= -33.37%.....I=....-32.48%...
AGG= -04.40%.....F=...-01.69%...
............................G=..+00.27%..

 

[Guest2]

Share Accumulation For The Past 5 trading days;

(C)FUND = +251.3967
(S)FUND = +500.4462
(G)FUND = -315.3379

Unless I see a jump upwards before November 3rd, 2008
This strategy might have been implimented too soon.
Otherwise, I could have saved some loses during the
interum and purchased shares on the 3rd much more
cheaper then DCA'ing downward. Hmmmmm ?

 

[justbizness45]

Share Accumulation For The Past 5 trading days;

(C)FUND = +251.3967
(S)FUND = +500.4462
(G)FUND = -315.3379

Unless I see a jump upwards before November 3rd, 2008
This strategy might have been implimented too soon.
Otherwise, I could have saved some loses during the
interum and purchased shares on the 3rd much more
cheaper then DCA'ing downward. Hmmmmm ?

You and me both. Brother

 

[Frozen]

Share Accumulation For The Past 5 trading days;

(C)FUND = +251.3967
(S)FUND = +500.4462
(G)FUND = -315.3379

Could you explain this to me? Thanks.

 

[Guest2]

Could you explain this to me? Thanks.

Certainly ! I invite you to do a search of threads that contain; "<1%"
(without the quotes). You'll find some detailed information about running
out of IFT's (except back to the G) and utilizing the ability to rebalance
your account by doing a IFT with the same exact whole percentages
without going back into the (G) Fund. On a down day like today, instead
of the down day lowering your percentage in any fund, you can rebalance
each fund back up to the percentage you started with. It has no effect
on your total balance, but two things can occur if you do this;

#1- If the fund is up, you'll actually lower
the amount of shares you have in that fund.

#2- If the fund is down, you actually add
the amount of shares you have in that fund.

Some use the term DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging). By buying more shares
on the way down and at a cheaper price, your cost of owning those shares
go down. My goal was to have as many shares that I could muster in the
(C) and (S) Fund, for when a long over due Bear Rally occurs and the TSP
jumps skyward by double digit %'s (just as it did on the 13th of Oct). This
was a short term goal for me. Some use this kind of share accumulation as
part of a strategic plan which could last a very long time. (Birchtree). But
his circumstances are much different then mine and many other members
here at TSPtalk. Before implimenting any of the information you find on
this glorious website, you should research every aspect and compare your
own circumstances which could affect your outcome and goals. In closing,
you'll find a lot of information about <1% IFT's in my thread. But you'll have
to go back maybe a week or so before you'll find it. Oh yes, please don't
forget to read my signature below. I hope this helps !

 

[Frozen]

Well, I had no luck pulling up any such threads, even went back a few weeks on your posts. I see a lot of folks happy about the plunging fund price, saying that they are now cheap. This might be true for new money, or for those long in the G fund, but its otherwise a zero sum game and if you buy low into one fund, you will also be selling low on the fund you're getting out of. I was really asking about the numbers you cite; why a positive number for one fund and negative numbers for the others. What do these represent?

 

[KevinD]

I was really asking about the numbers you cite; why a positive number for one fund and negative numbers for the others. What do these represent?

It has no effect
on your total balance, but two things can occur if you do this;

#1- If the fund is up, you'll actually lower
the amount of shares you have in that fund.

#2- If the fund is down, you actually add
the amount of shares you have in that fund.

I'll go see if I can find some posts...

 

[KevinD]

Frozen - Try this post.

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=189561&postcount=2064

 

[Guest2]

I tried the search too and came up empty. I was also wrong about where one might find what I've written. I've written about the topic in various threads. Here's what I found in order to help !

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=182277&postcount=9
THE BIG ONE ---> 09/22

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=190533&postcount=2095
10/24/08

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=189558&postcount=2063
10/21/08

 

[Guest2]

I'll go see if I can find some posts...

Thanks Kevin, that was totaly cool of you.

 

[Guest2]

Ok, nice start ! I LIKE IT ! But we've been here before ! I'm watch'n until
11:30am before making any changes or moves (if any). We've seen this
happen for one day, then four killer days followed. Boy oh Boy, That (I)
Fund being up +6.66% looks "SWWEEEEEET"

Hey, I gotta keep this real. We aren't even up to yesterdays pricing within
the Indexes. Which means, we haven't gain what we lost yesterday, yet.
The "holding" question looms big as we've seen swings of much greater
proportion. Watch and Wait,,,,,,,,Watch and Wait !

 

[Guest2]

Consumer Confidence hit 38.0 for the month of October. Wow, what a drop.
Did anyone think it would be higher? If you did, you didn't drive (oil) a
car or buy groceries during the month. You also didn't watch how close
we came to the brink of Financial Disaster or look at your 401k's shrink
to force many to extend their projected retirement date. In my opinion,
you'd have to have your head buried in the sand not to expect such a
drastic drop. AND thats why the market wasn't plumetted off this news.
Its pretty much priced in already. But its early ! Watch and Wait !

 

[Guest2]

S&P Could Gain 25% in 'Quiet' Rally: Strategist

The S&P 500 index could rally 20 to 25 percent over the next few months as stocks bounce in a quiet bear-market rally, Robert Levitt, CIO of Levitt Capital Management, told CNBC. "It may be a bear-market rally, but I think it's going to last a while, anywhere from 3 to 4, 5 months. So we're going to become invested in it," Levitt said, adding that any down days are an opportunity to start building positions.

Stocks and indexes that have been beaten up the most are the ones set to make the best returns, according to Levitt. "You could see rises anywhere from 20 to 25 percent in the S&P 500, even greater in some of the Asian markets and the same thing will happen in Europe," Levitt said. The rally won't be long lasting and may not be evident straight away, but "it will be one of these quiet markets that slowly moves up," Levitt said. When the Ted spread -- the spread between 3-month dollar Libor and 3-month Treasury prices -- drops "to below one we'll be fully invested, at this point we're just beginning to be invested," Levitt said. Indexes that offer high levels of liquidity are desirable, Levitt said, adding that he will be using stop losses (an automatic sell triggered when an asset hits a certain price), "because if we're wrong we're going to be exiting." Levitt is steering clear of government bonds because he thinks interest rates will have to go higher in the long term. He also keeps a permanent exposure to gold as a form of insurance. Until this point Levitt has been "hiding" in dollar and yen.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/27293159/site/14081545

 

[Guest2]

Oversold Opportunities in Tech and Mining Stocks

http://www.cnbc.com/id/27404508/

 

[Guest2]

Once again, the (S) Fund is NOT cooperating. For me, this isn't good news.
I'm under the belief that any major move upwards will be lead by the (S) Fund.
I'm not liking what I'm seeing so far, I'm seeing "Red" on this day, maybe !

 

[Guest2]

This is looking a lot like last Thursday;

(C).Up
(S).Down
(I)..Up
(F).Down

 

[KevinD]

Thanks Kevin, that was totaly cool of you.

Just trying to help out. I owe you and everybody else here so much...