justbizness45
Member
The latter, IMO
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Squalebear's Account Talk
- Thread starter Guest2
- Start date
The latter, IMO
Banks are like Opec. They have a vested interest in raising demand. Opec
with oil. Banks with loans. If they use part of the bail out money to absorb
weaker banks, its better then a bank failure and a resulting run. Treasury
announced today that they are considering additional banks under TARP.
But those would be the smaller, more regional kind of banks. But if Uncle
Ben needs to put a foot up the Banks behind to start lending, then I'm all
for it. Heck, I'll donate my time for free to help.
I'm a equal opportunity Bank Butt Kicking Bully.
That'll teach them to Reject my loan application
I submitted when I was Nine. Hey, I wanted to
start a business and Mom supplied the Koolaid.
So much for small business loans. :nuts:
with oil. Banks with loans. If they use part of the bail out money to absorb
weaker banks, its better then a bank failure and a resulting run. Treasury
announced today that they are considering additional banks under TARP.
But those would be the smaller, more regional kind of banks. But if Uncle
Ben needs to put a foot up the Banks behind to start lending, then I'm all
for it. Heck, I'll donate my time for free to help.
I'm a equal opportunity Bank Butt Kicking Bully.
That'll teach them to Reject my loan application
I submitted when I was Nine. Hey, I wanted to
start a business and Mom supplied the Koolaid.
So much for small business loans. :nuts:
As my investments in the TSP are based on the Riskier Funds (C) (S) and (I) and not the (F) Fund, On a Month-To-Date basis I'm currently ahead of the best performing fund (C) by +7.07% and on a Year-To-Date basis I'm beating the best performing fund (C) by +17.37%. Today is a total mystery on how the Market will react to the Fed's adjustment to Fed Funds Rate. Concensus is 0.50% and some think that a 0.75% is possible. We won't know until 2:15pm which is way past our 12:00 noon deadline. The (S) fund appears to be on catch up mode and is currently doing better by outperforming the (C) by more then 1%. Now I've stated in some previous posts that its historically the (S) Fund which leads the way off of a bottom. But I refuse to call a bottom. I believe this is a temporary Bear Market Rally which could lead us into losing some of the gains we saw yesterday. Should the Fed surprise to the downside (0.25%) we're gonna take a hit today of greater proportions. But I seriously dought that the cut will be a quarter percent. So I'm leaving my percentages as they currently exist within the TSP. Sorry these thoughts came so close to the deadline. I did my best. Good luck to everyone.
YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX= -35.59%.....C=...-34.81%....-17.44% (my figures)
DW.= -40.94%.....S=.. -39.92%....
EFA= -45.63%......I=...-45.48%...
AGG= -06.51%.....F=...-01.30%...
...........................G=...+03.15%...
MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX= -19.36%.....C=...-19.27%....-12.20%(my figures)
DW.= -28.04%.....S=.. -28.41%....
EFA= -24.19%.....I=....-24.48%...
AGG= -04.07%.....F=...-02.12%...
............................G=..+00.28%..
YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX= -35.59%.....C=...-34.81%....-17.44% (my figures)
DW.= -40.94%.....S=.. -39.92%....
EFA= -45.63%......I=...-45.48%...
AGG= -06.51%.....F=...-01.30%...
...........................G=...+03.15%...
MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX= -19.36%.....C=...-19.27%....-12.20%(my figures)
DW.= -28.04%.....S=.. -28.41%....
EFA= -24.19%.....I=....-24.48%...
AGG= -04.07%.....F=...-02.12%...
............................G=..+00.28%..
Well, I've gotta run. But I'll be back on and off throughout the day.
The (S) Fund is at +1.81% and leading the way over the (C) +0.08%
and the (I) +1.09% and I'm feeling good right about now. The only
fear I have is we won't see follow thru and the Market will sell the
News because we already bought the rumor. Come On Ben, give us
a 0.75% cut and kick us up the charts. Just don't make no speeches
because you could kill a Bull Market with that breath. :toung:
The (S) Fund is at +1.81% and leading the way over the (C) +0.08%
and the (I) +1.09% and I'm feeling good right about now. The only
fear I have is we won't see follow thru and the Market will sell the
News because we already bought the rumor. Come On Ben, give us
a 0.75% cut and kick us up the charts. Just don't make no speeches
because you could kill a Bull Market with that breath. :toung:
Ok, the Fed Fund Rate was cut by 0.50%, no big surprise. Just prior, we
saw selling drive the market down to minimal gains. This appears to be the
buy the rumor, sell the news (as I mentioned previously). Now the Market
is showing loses. What does that all mean ? Well, here's my take on it.
I believe we will not confirm the Sell The News scenario until the last hour.
In fact, maybe the last half hour. So we'll see a strong attempt by the
Bears at first, then maybe a buying spree buy closing. Should we end up
unchanged, consider it a moral victory. I'm hoping for follow thru from the
Rally yesterday. If it doesn't happen, the rally will have a shorter lifespan.
If we end lower, we can only hope the shoe doesn't drop too steeply come
tomorrow. Just my final thoughts before hitting the feathers ! I'll be back.
saw selling drive the market down to minimal gains. This appears to be the
buy the rumor, sell the news (as I mentioned previously). Now the Market
is showing loses. What does that all mean ? Well, here's my take on it.
I believe we will not confirm the Sell The News scenario until the last hour.
In fact, maybe the last half hour. So we'll see a strong attempt by the
Bears at first, then maybe a buying spree buy closing. Should we end up
unchanged, consider it a moral victory. I'm hoping for follow thru from the
Rally yesterday. If it doesn't happen, the rally will have a shorter lifespan.
If we end lower, we can only hope the shoe doesn't drop too steeply come
tomorrow. Just my final thoughts before hitting the feathers ! I'll be back.
Steadygain
TSP Elite
Ok, the Fed Fund Rate was cut by 0.50%, no big surprise. Just prior, we saw selling drive the market down to minimal gains. This appears to be the buy the rumor, sell the news (as I mentioned previously). Now the Market is showing loses.
In my humble opinion you are exactly right. The cut by 0.50% was clearly announced ahead of time and expected. Consumer Confidence is at 'an all time low' and the Economic Conditions continue to be frightening. IF the economy had given an indication of strength and growth the RATE would go UP and not Down. So in reality the FED is doing everything possible to turn this around.
What does that all mean ? Well, here's my take on it.
I believe we will not confirm the Sell The News scenario until the last hour.
In fact, maybe the last half hour. So we'll see a strong attempt by the
Bears at first, then maybe a buying spree buy closing. Should we end up
unchanged, consider it a moral victory. I'm hoping for follow thru from the
Rally yesterday. If it doesn't happen, the rally will have a shorter lifespan.
If we end lower, we can only hope the shoe doesn't drop too steeply come tomorrow. Just my final thoughts before hitting the feathers ! I'll be back.
I think that's about as perfect as anyone could put it. I'd say the liklihood of marked volitility will continue for months to come.
GL - SB - Hope it turns out well
I believe so too Steady, I'm sure the $VIX will continue to be wild.
Hopefully, It will lower enough for sideline money to put their toes
in the water. Being diversified in the (G), (C) and (S) gave me some
gains today. I like what I saw in the (S) all day long. I just hope it
takes the lead for tomorrow to the upside and not the down. I fear
it will be the latter. Well, time for the O/D Tracker Update.
Remember, the goal of the Tracker is to follow how the Fund Managers
keep the EFA and (I) Fund close to one another on a YTD basis. By years
end, they should closely reflect each others percentage returns. Well it
doesn't come any closer then todays YTD readings, unless they were at
dead zero differences. This is the second day on the Deficit "They Owe
Us" side. Each day will bring me closer to announcing a perminent Deficit
Side Reversal. This is the side that the tracker maintaned for years. That
is until the credit crisis erupted and wild swings started to render this
Tracker all but useless. Now, we're seeing some stabalization and I'm truly
hoping the worst is over and it becomes as predictable as it use to be.
YTD O/D FOR ALL TSP FUNDS
(C) Fund vs. the SPX = -0.1848 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.73%
(S) Fund vs. DWCPF. = -0.2195 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.80%
(I). Fund vs. the EFA =+0.0193 TSP Cent Overpayment or -0.14%
DAILY (I) FUND VS. EFA O/D TRACKING RESULTS:
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/06/08) -0.1022% -0.2014 tsp cents
(10/07/08)+1.0228% -0.3531 tsp cents
(10/08/08) -1.3004% -0.1455 tsp cents
(10/09/08)+1.1848% -0.3078 tsp cents
(10/10/08) -0.6113% -0.2109 tsp cents
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/13/08) +0.6117% -0.3431 tsp cents
(10/14/08) -1.0454% -0.1711 tsp cents
(10/15/08) +0.9341% -0.2846 tsp cents
(10/16/08) -1.7110% -0.0482 tsp cents
(10/17/08) +0.3405% -0.0987 tsp cents
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/20/08) -0.7050%+0.0048 tsp cents
(10/21/08)+0.8721% -0.1205 tsp cents
(10/22/08)+0.5115% -0.1807 tsp cents
(10/23/08) -0.3743% -0.1331 tsp cents
(10/24/08) -0.4057% -0.0725 tsp cents
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/27/08) -0.4900% -0.1282 tsp cents
(10/28/08) -1.9368%+0.1181 tsp cents
(10/29/08)+0.7332%+0.0193 tsp cents
THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .6000 thru -.4000 High Overpayment (Payback Past Due)
- .4000 thru -.3000 Elavated Overpayment, (Payback Immanent)
- .3000 thru -.2000 Medium Overpayment (Flip A Coin)
- .2000 thru -.1000 Low Overpayment, (Slightly Over Goal)
- .1000 thru -.0000 Minimum Overpayment (Goal is Met)
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Lower)
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming !
---------------------------------------------------------------------
keep the EFA and (I) Fund close to one another on a YTD basis. By years
end, they should closely reflect each others percentage returns. Well it
doesn't come any closer then todays YTD readings, unless they were at
dead zero differences. This is the second day on the Deficit "They Owe
Us" side. Each day will bring me closer to announcing a perminent Deficit
Side Reversal. This is the side that the tracker maintaned for years. That
is until the credit crisis erupted and wild swings started to render this
Tracker all but useless. Now, we're seeing some stabalization and I'm truly
hoping the worst is over and it becomes as predictable as it use to be.
YTD O/D FOR ALL TSP FUNDS
(C) Fund vs. the SPX = -0.1848 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.73%
(S) Fund vs. DWCPF. = -0.2195 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.80%
(I). Fund vs. the EFA =+0.0193 TSP Cent Overpayment or -0.14%
DAILY (I) FUND VS. EFA O/D TRACKING RESULTS:
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/06/08) -0.1022% -0.2014 tsp cents
(10/07/08)+1.0228% -0.3531 tsp cents
(10/08/08) -1.3004% -0.1455 tsp cents
(10/09/08)+1.1848% -0.3078 tsp cents
(10/10/08) -0.6113% -0.2109 tsp cents
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/13/08) +0.6117% -0.3431 tsp cents
(10/14/08) -1.0454% -0.1711 tsp cents
(10/15/08) +0.9341% -0.2846 tsp cents
(10/16/08) -1.7110% -0.0482 tsp cents
(10/17/08) +0.3405% -0.0987 tsp cents
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/20/08) -0.7050%+0.0048 tsp cents
(10/21/08)+0.8721% -0.1205 tsp cents
(10/22/08)+0.5115% -0.1807 tsp cents
(10/23/08) -0.3743% -0.1331 tsp cents
(10/24/08) -0.4057% -0.0725 tsp cents
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/27/08) -0.4900% -0.1282 tsp cents
(10/28/08) -1.9368%+0.1181 tsp cents
(10/29/08)+0.7332%+0.0193 tsp cents
THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .6000 thru -.4000 High Overpayment (Payback Past Due)
- .4000 thru -.3000 Elavated Overpayment, (Payback Immanent)
- .3000 thru -.2000 Medium Overpayment (Flip A Coin)
- .2000 thru -.1000 Low Overpayment, (Slightly Over Goal)
- .1000 thru -.0000 Minimum Overpayment (Goal is Met)
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Lower)
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming !
---------------------------------------------------------------------
YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX= -36.66%.....C=...-35.53%....-17.28% (my figures)
DW.= -39.55%.....S=.. -38.54%....
EFA= -45.50%......I=...-44.95%...
AGG= -04.73%.....F=...-01.34%...
...........................G=...+03.16%...
MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX= -20.26%.....C=...-20.16%....-12.20%(my figures)
DW.= -26.35%.....S=.. -26.76%....
EFA= -24.01%.....I=....-23.75%...
AGG= -02.24%.....F=...-02.16%...
............................G=..+00.29%..
SPX= -36.66%.....C=...-35.53%....-17.28% (my figures)
DW.= -39.55%.....S=.. -38.54%....
EFA= -45.50%......I=...-44.95%...
AGG= -04.73%.....F=...-01.34%...
...........................G=...+03.16%...
MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX= -20.26%.....C=...-20.16%....-12.20%(my figures)
DW.= -26.35%.....S=.. -26.76%....
EFA= -24.01%.....I=....-23.75%...
AGG= -02.24%.....F=...-02.16%...
............................G=..+00.29%..
I tried the search too and came up empty. I was also wrong about where one might find what I've written. I've written about the topic in various threads. Here's what I found in order to help !
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=182277&postcount=9
THE BIG ONE ---> 09/22
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=190533&postcount=2095
10/24/08
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=189558&postcount=2063
10/21/08
From a few pages back.... Thanks for these, Squalebear, and thanks to KevinD for posting the link as well. I had been searching for more info on what is DCA with our tsp? but couldn't track it down. Lot's to read and learn here, and I'm enjoying reading your thread.
Thanks also for welcoming me to your family (on the member introductions thread.)
From a few pages back.... Thanks for these, Squalebear, and thanks to KevinD for posting the link as well. I had been searching for more info on what is DCA with our tsp? but couldn't track it down. Lot's to read and learn here, and I'm enjoying reading your thread.
Thanks also for welcoming me to your family (on the member introductions thread.)
Caldonia, your most welcome and I think you need a little more information
about DCA'ing then the listed threads provide. I'll be home sometime after
7:30am and I'll try to add the few additional things you should know then.
Market motion sickness to continue
The Dow soared nearly 900 points Tuesday. Experts say investors
need to prepare for more big moves - both up and down in coming
months. :worried:
http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/29/markets/thebuzz/index.htm?postversion=2008102915
The Dow soared nearly 900 points Tuesday. Experts say investors
need to prepare for more big moves - both up and down in coming
months. :worried:
http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/29/markets/thebuzz/index.htm?postversion=2008102915
Well, they say good things come in small packages. My son just told me;
I'M GONNA BE A GRANDFATHER !
How many times can a man's tear ducts be tested in one week !
Quick, someone get me angry before I dehydrate !
Wow -- Congrats!!!
nnuut
Moderator | TSP Legend
CONGRATULATIONS!! Me Too, in December!!! Bring them on, Grandkids are COOl!!:laugh:Well, they say good things come in small packages. My son just told me;
I'M GONNA BE A GRANDFATHER !
How many times can a man's tear ducts be tested in one week !
Quick, someone get me angry before I dehydrate !
Steadygain
TSP Elite
Squalebear my dear brother,
Congratulations on becoming a Grandfater!!
THAT SOUNDS WONDERFUL - and I'm also thrilled with the Beacon of Friendship your site has become.
My daughter will be 16 in a few weeks and asked me to write a story for her, which I'm putting in the lounge. I'm only about half way done. The basis of the story is bringing in a 'New Earth' which begins with CoMaGa34 giving a vial to take to XL-entLady who is at the 70th dimension. There are only 7 dimensions beyond that were are heaven - and none can alter them. Carrie is the central character known as "The Magnet" who in the end has the ability to draw everyone together. She has to go through many battles as a huge part of the Universe wants evil to remain alive and in control. Buster, CB, Birch, and Me are her warriors/protectors/leaders. Birch becomes the ultimate hero - but that is towards the end. Carrie can not be "The Magnet" without the help of Mamkin, Luv2read, and others who each help her to acquire the ultimate aspects of being a woman (a woman's heart, sensitivity, intuition...) After the various women each impart on her an extra strong nature of "being a woman" - she then meets Squalebear (who is most qualified to assess and approve her wholesome womanly traits) and then she is able to move on to shatter the 70 dimensions and bring them together as one (along with the New Earth). SugarandSpice then takes on the most central role of the whole story and it has a happy ending.
I'm not even half way done; so I won't have time to visit here for the next few weeks.
I love you my dear brother and friend.
Steady
Congratulations on becoming a Grandfater!!
THAT SOUNDS WONDERFUL - and I'm also thrilled with the Beacon of Friendship your site has become.
My daughter will be 16 in a few weeks and asked me to write a story for her, which I'm putting in the lounge. I'm only about half way done. The basis of the story is bringing in a 'New Earth' which begins with CoMaGa34 giving a vial to take to XL-entLady who is at the 70th dimension. There are only 7 dimensions beyond that were are heaven - and none can alter them. Carrie is the central character known as "The Magnet" who in the end has the ability to draw everyone together. She has to go through many battles as a huge part of the Universe wants evil to remain alive and in control. Buster, CB, Birch, and Me are her warriors/protectors/leaders. Birch becomes the ultimate hero - but that is towards the end. Carrie can not be "The Magnet" without the help of Mamkin, Luv2read, and others who each help her to acquire the ultimate aspects of being a woman (a woman's heart, sensitivity, intuition...) After the various women each impart on her an extra strong nature of "being a woman" - she then meets Squalebear (who is most qualified to assess and approve her wholesome womanly traits) and then she is able to move on to shatter the 70 dimensions and bring them together as one (along with the New Earth). SugarandSpice then takes on the most central role of the whole story and it has a happy ending.
I'm not even half way done; so I won't have time to visit here for the next few weeks.
I love you my dear brother and friend.
Steady
justbizness45
Member
Well, they say good things come in small packages. My son just told me;
I'M GONNA BE A GRANDFATHER !
How many times can a man's tear ducts be tested in one week !
Quick, someone get me angry before I dehydrate !
SB, I have 5 grandkids. It's the best. Wind them up, fill full of sugar and send them home!!
Congrats man, you are in for a wonderful experience.I'm leaning towards bailing out on this strong looking "could be" rally.
Fridays Economic Reports won't prove to be too exciting (IMO) and
has very little to move the Market in either direction. Election day
holds Truck and Auto Sales figures (need I say more). I've heard a
rally before the election was to be expected based on historic facts.
Well, we've seen it. A lower entry point come November is inevitable.
I've road this pony down while gathering shares and saw greater gains
by doing so. Now, I'm not too concerned about missing a Friday and/or
Monday follow thru to the upside. This is what I plan (pre-open). Lets
see what 11:30am brings us !
Fridays Economic Reports won't prove to be too exciting (IMO) and
has very little to move the Market in either direction. Election day
holds Truck and Auto Sales figures (need I say more). I've heard a
rally before the election was to be expected based on historic facts.
Well, we've seen it. A lower entry point come November is inevitable.
I've road this pony down while gathering shares and saw greater gains
by doing so. Now, I'm not too concerned about missing a Friday and/or
Monday follow thru to the upside. This is what I plan (pre-open). Lets
see what 11:30am brings us !
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