Squalebear's Account Talk

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Steadygain said:
SORRY SB; I didn't realize it was a question ..... dud...I just got on.
Click to expand...

Being a Big Brother means never having to say; I'm Sorry. ;)

Your Absolutely correct ! Rebalancing does NOT guarantee buying low and
selling high on a monthly or biweekly basis. Rebalancing is a long term method
of leveling the playing field with concerns to loses and gains. Other methods
can be more profitable at greater risk. Its all about Risk tolerance, Long Term
Goals and Homework. If we take any of those equations away, the IFT
method of outperforming the risk funds just won't work. Bottom Line;
the (L) Funds may be good for some,,, but not good for all ! ;)
 
TEMPORARY IT IS ! BACK TO THE OVERPAYMENT SIDE !

YTD O/D FOR ALL TSP FUNDS

(C) Fund vs. the SPX = 0.1868 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.70%
(S) Fund vs. DWCPF. = 0.2370 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.81%
(I). Fund vs. the EFA = 0.1205 TSP Cent Overpayment or +0.84%:eek:

DAILY (I) FUND VS. EFA O/D TRACKING RESULTS:

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(09/22/08)+2.5382% -0.4628 tsp cents
(09/23/08) -0.8997% -0.2822 tsp cents
(09/24/08) -0.2518% -0.2347 tsp cents
(09/25/08) -0.5076% -0.1412 tsp cents
(09/26/08) +0.3903% -0.2149 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(09/29/08)+2.3205% -0.6001 tsp cents
(09/30/08) -3.4591%+0.0025 tsp cents
(10/01/08) -0.7365% -0.1291 tsp cents
(10/02/08) -0.0580% -0.1135 tsp cents
(10/03/08)+0.6851% -0.2312 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/06/08) -0.1022% -0.2014 tsp cents
(10/07/08)+1.0228% -0.3531 tsp cents
(10/08/08) -1.3004% -0.1455 tsp cents
(10/09/08)+1.1848% -0.3078 tsp cents
(10/10/08) -0.6113% -0.2109 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/13/08) +0.6117% -0.3431 tsp cents
(10/14/08) -1.0454% -0.1711 tsp cents
(10/15/08) +0.9341% -0.2846 tsp cents
(10/16/08) -1.7110% -0.0482 tsp cents
(10/17/08) +0.3405% -0.0987 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/20/08) -0.7050% +0.0048 tsp cents
(10/21/08)+0.8721% -0.1205 tsp cents:eek:

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .6000 thru -.4000 High Overpayment (Payback Past Due)
- .4000 thru -.3000 Elavated Overpayment, (Payback Immanent)
- .3000 thru -.2000 Medium Overpayment (Flip A Coin)
- .2000 thru -.1000 Low Overpayment, (Slightly Over Goal):eek:
- .1000 thru -.0000 Minimum Overpayment (Goal is Met)
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Lower)
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming !
---------------------------------------------------------------------
 
YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX= -34.96%.....C=...-33.81%....-16.20% (my figures):)
DW.= -35.11%.....S=.. -33.99%....
EFA= -43.08%......I=...-42.09%...
AGG= -04.51%.....F=...+00.11%...
...........................G=...+03.08%...

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX= -18.12%.....C=...-18.04%....-10.99%(my figures):)
DW.= -20.95%.....S=.. -21.35%....
EFA= -20.64%.....I=....-19.79%...
AGG= -02.01%.....F=...-00.72%...
............................G=..+00.21%..
 
Low volume today in the Dow. Charts look inviting for a big move.
Up or down, somethings a brewing in Market Land ! Something Big !

"Somethings coming, something good, catch the moon, one handed catch"{Westside Story Reference} :)
 
SB, My Jedi Master. Just stopped by to say hello. I have gotten home from my second job and noticed that I didn't give back all my profits from yesterday.:D The homemade chocolate cream pie and Bud lite taste better now.:D
 
nasa1974 said:
SB, My Jedi Master. Just stopped by to say hello. I have gotten home from my second job and noticed that I didn't give back all my profits from yesterday.:D The homemade chocolate cream pie and Bud lite taste better now.:D
Click to expand...

I took some off the table for Tuesday and the downside wasn't as bad as
Mondays goodside. Hope we do well tomorrow. Futures aren't a lock right
now, but I sure wish they looked better.:confused:
 
FUND MANAGERS USE ONLY 1/2 PERCENT TO OFFSET
HUGE DOWN DAY IN THE (I) FUND ! THE O/D TRACKER
STAYS WITHIN THE LOW OVERPAYMENT AREA !

YTD O/D FOR ALL TSP FUNDS

(C) Fund vs. the SPX = 0.1787 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.74%
(S) Fund vs. DWCPF. = 0.2145 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.74%
(I). Fund vs. the EFA = 0.1807 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.35%:)

DAILY (I) FUND VS. EFA O/D TRACKING RESULTS:

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(09/22/08)+2.5382% -0.4628 tsp cents
(09/23/08) -0.8997% -0.2822 tsp cents
(09/24/08) -0.2518% -0.2347 tsp cents
(09/25/08) -0.5076% -0.1412 tsp cents
(09/26/08) +0.3903% -0.2149 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(09/29/08)+2.3205% -0.6001 tsp cents
(09/30/08) -3.4591%+0.0025 tsp cents
(10/01/08) -0.7365% -0.1291 tsp cents
(10/02/08) -0.0580% -0.1135 tsp cents
(10/03/08)+0.6851% -0.2312 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/06/08) -0.1022% -0.2014 tsp cents
(10/07/08)+1.0228% -0.3531 tsp cents
(10/08/08) -1.3004% -0.1455 tsp cents
(10/09/08)+1.1848% -0.3078 tsp cents
(10/10/08) -0.6113% -0.2109 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/13/08) +0.6117% -0.3431 tsp cents
(10/14/08) -1.0454% -0.1711 tsp cents
(10/15/08) +0.9341% -0.2846 tsp cents
(10/16/08) -1.7110% -0.0482 tsp cents
(10/17/08) +0.3405% -0.0987 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/20/08) -0.7050%+0.0048 tsp cents
(10/21/08)+0.8721% -0.1205 tsp cents
(10/22/08)+0.5115% -0.1807 tsp cents:)

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .6000 thru -.4000 High Overpayment (Payback Past Due)
- .4000 thru -.3000 Elavated Overpayment, (Payback Immanent)
- .3000 thru -.2000 Medium Overpayment (Flip A Coin)
- .2000 thru -.1000 Low Overpayment, (Slightly Over Goal):)
- .1000 thru -.0000 Minimum Overpayment (Goal is Met)
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Lower)
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming !
---------------------------------------------------------------------
 
YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX= -38.93%.....C=...-37.83%....-17.82% (my figures):nuts:
DW.= -38.74%.....S=.. -37.73%....
EFA= -47.24%......I=...-46.02%...
AGG= -03.40%.....F=...+00.25%...
...........................G=...+03.09%...

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX= -23.11%.....C=...-23.01%....-12.57%(my figures):nuts:
DW.= -25.36%.....S=.. -25.80%....
EFA= -26.43%.....I=....-25.23%...
AGG= -00.87%.....F=...-00.59%...
............................G=..+00.22%..
 
I use to read some threads that called market insiders crooks. I was amused
by the notion but never took it too serious. Did anyone see the grilling
of Moody's and Fitch today by Congress. It was painfully obvious that
crooks are justifying the lack of trust within the market. Reality can be
ugly. I could see right through the side-stepping of questions and truly
believe that Big Bubba is going to happy to see some Fresh Prison Fish.
 
GO FIGURE, FUND MANAGERS TAKE AWAY ON A UP DAY
AND GIVE SOME ON A DOWN DAY !
Checks and Balances ! I guess this is called leveraging while keeping the
Deficit/Overpayment Tracker within acceptable ranges. Six trading days
in the "Black" is showing stabilization that hasn't been seen for quite some
time. The last grouping was three days straight. This may not be a bad
time to be in the (I) Fund, unless the market tanks. Should that happen,
the Fund Managers will no doubt add to the Overpayment to soften the
blow. Anything upwards and the (I) Fund should stay relatively close to
the EFA results.;)

YTD O/D FOR ALL TSP FUNDS

(C) Fund vs. the SPX = 0.1812 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.74%
(S) Fund vs. DWCPF. = 0.2008 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.67%
(I). Fund vs. the EFA = 0.1331 TSP Cent Overpayment or +0.98%:)

DAILY (I) FUND VS. EFA O/D TRACKING RESULTS:

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(09/22/08)+2.5382% -0.4628 tsp cents
(09/23/08) -0.8997% -0.2822 tsp cents
(09/24/08) -0.2518% -0.2347 tsp cents
(09/25/08) -0.5076% -0.1412 tsp cents
(09/26/08) +0.3903% -0.2149 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(09/29/08)+2.3205% -0.6001 tsp cents
(09/30/08) -3.4591%+0.0025 tsp cents
(10/01/08) -0.7365% -0.1291 tsp cents
(10/02/08) -0.0580% -0.1135 tsp cents
(10/03/08)+0.6851% -0.2312 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/06/08) -0.1022% -0.2014 tsp cents
(10/07/08)+1.0228% -0.3531 tsp cents
(10/08/08) -1.3004% -0.1455 tsp cents
(10/09/08)+1.1848% -0.3078 tsp cents
(10/10/08) -0.6113% -0.2109 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/13/08) +0.6117% -0.3431 tsp cents
(10/14/08) -1.0454% -0.1711 tsp cents
(10/15/08) +0.9341% -0.2846 tsp cents
(10/16/08) -1.7110% -0.0482 tsp cents
(10/17/08) +0.3405% -0.0987 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/20/08) -0.7050%+0.0048 tsp cents
(10/21/08)+0.8721% -0.1205 tsp cents
(10/22/08)+0.5115% -0.1807 tsp cents
(10/23/08) -0.3743%+0.1331 tsp cents:)

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .6000 thru -.4000 High Overpayment (Payback Past Due)
- .4000 thru -.3000 Elavated Overpayment, (Payback Immanent)
- .3000 thru -.2000 Medium Overpayment (Flip A Coin)
- .2000 thru -.1000 Low Overpayment, (Slightly Over Goal):)
- .1000 thru -.0000 Minimum Overpayment (Goal is Met)
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Lower)
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming !
---------------------------------------------------------------------
 
YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX= -38.15%.....C=...-37.04%....-17.99% (my figures):cool:
DW.= -40.27%.....S=.. -39.33%....
EFA= -46.08%......I=...-45.04%...
AGG= -05.10%.....F=...+00.40%...
...........................G=...+03.10%...

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX= -22.14%.....C=...-22.04%....-12.73%(my figures):cool:
DW.= -27.23%.....S=.. -27.71%....
EFA= -24.81%.....I=....-23.87%...
AGG= -02.62%.....F=...-00.43%...
............................G=..+00.23%..
 
The bounce that never came for more then a single day ! You might think
this is a good time to do a IFT for tomorrow, but thats only if today is just
a fluke. I don't believe it is. A 500-600 S&P is not so unbelievable for me. I
attempted to ride out this thing down to a 30% investment. With 6 trading
days left in October, I'm finally pulling out and will feel somewhat greatful
should my YTD loses stay above -20% by days end. Even if I'm wrong and
Monday pulls off the greatest rebound in history, I will feel no pain. The climb
upward is going to be long and slow after any bounce off the bottom. So
there you have it. For those young pups looking for a great time to start
investing out of the (G) and into the risk funds, please use caution and
consider yourself lucky. We're going to be closer to the bottom then ever
before. But we may not be there yet. On a positive note, our children
are about to get the greatest investment opportunity of modern time. In
20 years, I believe the smarter, younger, more educated TSP participants
will be 10x's better off then I was in this endevor. :)
 
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