Squalebear's Account Talk

Cleansing of the soul is a good thing. Options Expiration is simply gonna
clog up the works again. We're going to need some Pepto-Bisamal ! ;)



Your absolutely correct my friend! One thing to add; if you correctly predict
a down day before noon, did a <1% IFT for the very same percentages,
the day after your last <1% IFT, then your accomplishing the same goal.
Your actually adding shares to the funds that lost ground on that day.

Tuesday: (C)20% -(S)20% - (G)60% (<1% IFT done before noon)
for the same %'s but you ended up with a loss 0.50% in the (C) and (S)
which would give you 19.5%-19.5%-51% (not anymore). You took one
percent from your (G) and put it back into the (C) and (S).

Wednesday: 20% - 20% - 60%

Its what they do in the (L) Funds but on a smaller scale (rebalance).
Your adding more shares at a lower price by doing so. :confused:



Nasa posted a very good explanation and I included additional information
just above. ONE THING I ASK THAT YOU REMEMBER. The Automated Tracker
is a competition and is not setup for daily entries of rebalancing. Its setup
for full percentage (normal) IFT's so I opted out of entering my daily's to
keep the rules intact. Just like the normal limits that the TSP have imposed
on us. This keeps the competition fair and balanced. Its important. ;)

Thanks Nasa and SB, May be worth a try in months where we've used our 2 IFTs!:)
 
Cleansing of the soul is a good thing. Options Expiration is simply gonna
clog up the works again. We're going to need some Pepto-Bisamal ! ;)



Your absolutely correct my friend! One thing to add; if you correctly predict
a down day before noon, did a <1% IFT for the very same percentages,
the day after your last <1% IFT, then your accomplishing the same goal.
Your actually adding shares to the funds that lost ground on that day.

Tuesday: (C)20% -(S)20% - (G)60% (<1% IFT done before noon)
for the same %'s but you ended up with a loss 0.50% in the (C) and (S)
which would give you 19.5%-19.5%-51% (not anymore). You took one
percent from your (G) and put it back into the (C) and (S).

Wednesday: 20% - 20% - 60%

Its what they do in the (L) Funds but on a smaller scale (rebalance).
Your adding more shares at a lower price by doing so. :confused:



Nasa posted a very good explanation and I included additional information
just above. ONE THING I ASK THAT YOU REMEMBER. The Automated Tracker
is a competition and is not setup for daily entries of rebalancing. Its setup
for full percentage (normal) IFT's so I opted out of entering my daily's to
keep the rules intact. Just like the normal limits that the TSP have imposed
on us. This keeps the competition fair and balanced. Its important. ;)

Thanks Nasa and SB, These <1% adjustments may be worth a try in months where we've used our 2 IFTs!:)
 
A final thought before hitting the hay ! Someone set the Bull Alarm Clock
to go off at 1:00pm as the (C) and (S) are up +3.03 & +2.99% respectively.
I'm not trying to jinx anything, but I'm gonna keep the champagne on ice
until my wake up call at 7:30pm. As volitile as this market has been, a
sell off before closing is more then possible. I'm sure you'll be watching
every tick (up and down) until 4:30pm. I wish us all the best of luck. ;)
 
Once again, the TSP Share Price update is not forthcoming until after my
duty deadline. I'll be back in the late hours to update the O/D Tracker. :(
 
SB,

Have a good evening. I just got home from my second job and I am having a few brewskies and some cashews to help forget the numbers today.:( I wish this market would make up it's mind.:rolleyes:
 
Due to circumstances beyond my control (blah,blah,blah) I was
required to do the figures on paper. I have the utmost confidence
that they're correct (NOT) but I'll be double checking them as soon
as I can. Should a error be found, I'll post the corrected version
soon after. Thank you for your patience. Congratulations to the
(G) , (S) and (F) Funders today. Green is good, Green is wise !
The (I) Funders got some help today as the EFA lost -2.13% and
the (I) lost -1.79% which means, the Fund Managers increased
the Overpayment on a down day. Every little bit helps. The O/D
Tracker still shows a "Minimum Overpayment" and we're all hoping
for a huge rally on Monday with a massive overpayment to boot !
Everyone have a Great Weekend and take full advantage of the
time with your family.

YTD O/D FOR ALL TSP FUNDS

(C) Fund vs. the SPX = 0.1834 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.69%
(S) Fund vs. DWCPF. = 0.2305 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.79%

(I). Fund vs. the EFA = 0.0987 TSP Cent Overpayment or +0.67%:nuts:

DAILY (I) FUND VS. EFA O/D TRACKING RESULTS:

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(09/15/08) +0.8638% -0.3323 tsp cents
(09/16/08) -0.2278% -0.2873 tsp cents
(09/17/08) +0.8268% -0.4262 tsp cents
(09/18/08) -2.0361% -0.0642 tsp cents
(09/19/08) -0.4960%+0.0283 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(09/22/08)+2.5382% -0.4628 tsp cents
(09/23/08) -0.8997% -0.2822 tsp cents
(09/24/08) -0.2518% -0.2347 tsp cents
(09/25/08) -0.5076% -0.1412 tsp cents
(09/26/08) +0.3903% -0.2149 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(09/29/08)+2.3205% -0.6001 tsp cents

(09/30/08) -3.4591%+0.0025 tsp cents
(10/01/08) -0.7365% -0.1291 tsp cents

(10/02/08) -0.0580% -0.1135 tsp cents
(10/03/08)+0.6851% -0.2312 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/06/08) -0.1022% -0.2014 tsp cents
(10/07/08)+1.0228% -0.3531 tsp cents
(10/08/08) -1.3004% -0.1455 tsp cents
(10/09/08)+1.1848% -0.3078 tsp cents
(10/10/08) -0.6113% -0.2109 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/13/08) +0.6117% -0.3431 tsp cents
(10/14/08) -1.0454% -0.1711 tsp cents
(10/15/08) +0.9341% -0.2846 tsp cents
(10/16/08) -1.7110% -0.0482 tsp cents
(10/17/08) +0.3405% -0.0987 tsp cents:nuts:

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .6000 thru -.4000 High Overpayment (Payback Past Due)
- .4000 thru -.3000 Elavated Overpayment, (Payback Immanent)
- .3000 thru -.2000 Medium Overpayment (Flip A Coin)
- .2000 thru -.1000 Low Overpayment, (Slightly Over Goal)
- .1000 thru -.0000 Minimum Overpayment (Goal is Met):nuts:
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Lower)
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming !
---------------------------------------------------------------------
 
SB,

Have a good evening. I just got home from my second job and I am
having a few brewskies and some cashews to help forget the numbers
today. I wish this market would make up it's mind.

You got to look at the bright side. You offset some of your losses by being
diversified by putting some $$$$ in the (S) and (G) Fund. I'm hearing more
and more say that we've already seen the bottom. The Three Month Libor
is lowering and the there's good reason to be in the market right now. Just
imagine the smile you'll have when 85% of your invested dollars go up
together by 1% or more. The measly .62% loss on your 75% investment
into the (C) Fund will seem insignificant.

Here's some advice even though you didn't ask for any;

*Rethink your Risk Tolerance Level. If a .62% loss in a fund that contains
75% of your investment is unsettling, maybe less should be on the table.
You have 11 more trading days before freedom rings and November brings
us a new set of IFT's. :cool:

*Don't make the mistake in looking at your YTD figures. Try to stay focused
on the week and/or month. Your goals will be more realistic to obtain, when
your not fighting to recover from your YTD figures. Look forward not back. :)

*Drink 3 more brewskies for me. I can't drink (light weight) so you might
as well be the one who takes up my slack. Just stay away from the porcelin. :toung:

*Last but not least, recognize and understand that from now until 1/1/09
your going to make some bad investment decisions along the way. Its still
the same as it was yesterday and 9 months before that. There is one true
constant that will never change. We need to be right, more then wrong.
Heck, we might even get lucky a few times ontop of it. God only knows
just how wrong I've been lately. But it does me no good to dwell on my
past failures. I must look forward to my Future Successes. ;)
 
For all you Chartist out there, while looking at a 6 month (candlestick)
chart of the S&P500, I want to say that I see a "W" shape that has
formed over the last 7 trading days.

Is that what you call a "Classic Double Bottom" or is that formation called
something else ? For the life of me I can't remember, but recall it being a
positive non the less.
 
Being OCD about accurate numbers has its downside. Where does
the OCD come in ? Well, I was only off by hundreths. Not tenths,
not even whole numbers. Its a curse I say ! :toung:

YTD O/D FOR ALL TSP FUNDS

(C) Fund vs. the SPX = 0.1828 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.69%
(S) Fund vs. DWCPF. = 0.2304 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.79%
(I). Fund vs. the EFA = 0.0959 TSP Cent Overpayment or +0.67%:nuts:


DAILY (I) FUND VS. EFA O/D TRACKING RESULTS:

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(09/15/08) +0.8638% -0.3323 tsp cents
(09/16/08) -0.2278% -0.2873 tsp cents
(09/17/08) +0.8268% -0.4262 tsp cents
(09/18/08) -2.0361% -0.0642 tsp cents
(09/19/08) -0.4960%+0.0283 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(09/22/08)+2.5382% -0.4628 tsp cents
(09/23/08) -0.8997% -0.2822 tsp cents
(09/24/08) -0.2518% -0.2347 tsp cents
(09/25/08) -0.5076% -0.1412 tsp cents
(09/26/08) +0.3903% -0.2149 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(09/29/08)+2.3205% -0.6001 tsp cents

(09/30/08) -3.4591%+0.0025 tsp cents
(10/01/08) -0.7365% -0.1291 tsp cents

(10/02/08) -0.0580% -0.1135 tsp cents
(10/03/08)+0.6851% -0.2312 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/06/08) -0.1022% -0.2014 tsp cents
(10/07/08)+1.0228% -0.3531 tsp cents
(10/08/08) -1.3004% -0.1455 tsp cents
(10/09/08)+1.1848% -0.3078 tsp cents
(10/10/08) -0.6113% -0.2109 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/13/08) +0.6117% -0.3431 tsp cents
(10/14/08) -1.0454% -0.1711 tsp cents
(10/15/08) +0.9341% -0.2846 tsp cents
(10/16/08) -1.7110% -0.0482 tsp cents
(10/17/08) +0.3406% -0.0959 tsp cents:nuts:

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .6000 thru -.4000 High Overpayment (Payback Past Due)
- .4000 thru -.3000 Elavated Overpayment, (Payback Immanent)
- .3000 thru -.2000 Medium Overpayment (Flip A Coin)
- .2000 thru -.1000 Low Overpayment, (Slightly Over Goal)
- .1000 thru -.0000 Minimum Overpayment (Goal is Met):nuts:
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Lower)
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming !
---------------------------------------------------------------------
 
YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX= -35.95%.....C=...-34.83%....-17.10% (my figures):nuts:
DW.= -36.02%.....S=.. -34.93%....
EFA= -43.30%......I=...-42.46%...
AGG= -07.00%.....F=...-01.17%...
...........................G=...+03.04%...

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX= -19.36%.....C=...-19.29%....-11.87%(my figures):)
DW.= -22.06%.....S=.. -22.47%....
EFA= -20.94%.....I=....-20.30%...
AGG= -04.56%.....F=...-01.99%...
............................G=..+00.17%..
 
For all you Chartist out there, while looking at a 6 month (candlestick)
chart of the S&P500, I want to say that I see a "W" shape that has
formed over the last 7 trading days.

Is that what you call a "Classic Double Bottom" or is that formation called
something else ? For the life of me I can't remember, but recall it being a
positive non the less.


It's certainly almost there. To be a true double bottom, I think the second up leg has to reach the top of the first up leg so that the "W" look is complete. But maybe it will happen next week and won't we all celebrate if it does! :cool:


You got to look at the bright side. You offset some of your losses by being
diversified by putting some $$$$ in the (S) and (G) Fund. I'm hearing more
and more say that we've already seen the bottom. The Three Month Libor
is lowering and the there's good reason to be in the market right now. Just
imagine the smile you'll have when 85% of your invested dollars go up
together by 1% or more. The measly .62% loss on your 75% investment
into the (C) Fund will seem insignificant.

Here's some advice even though you didn't ask for any;

*Rethink your Risk Tolerance Level. If a .62% loss in a fund that contains
75% of your investment is unsettling, maybe less should be on the table.
You have 11 more trading days before freedom rings and November brings
us a new set of IFT's.

*Don't make the mistake in looking at your YTD figures. Try to stay focused
on the week and/or month. Your goals will be more realistic to obtain, when
your not fighting to recover from your YTD figures. Look forward not back.


Several of the financial market books I've read say that it's important not to dwell on past failures OR successes when trading. Because the more you can keep emotions out of it, the more you can focus on what the charts are telling you and make better decisions. Fear and greed make bad decisions.


*Drink 3 more brewskies for me. I can't drink (light weight) so you might
as well be the one who takes up my slack. Just stay away from the porcelin.

Because of some of the meds I take, it would be stupid for me to drink, too. There have been several market days lately when I've wished that wasn't the case! :laugh:


*Last but not least, recognize and understand that from now until 1/1/09
your going to make some bad investment decisions along the way. Its still
the same as it was yesterday and 9 months before that. There is one true
constant that will never change. We need to be right, more then wrong.
Heck, we might even get lucky a few times ontop of it. God only knows
just how wrong I've been lately. But it does me no good to dwell on my
past failures. I must look forward to my Future Successes. ;)

So much wisdom in one Squale mind! I'm so glad you're my brother!

Lady
 
It's certainly almost there. To be a true double bottom, I think the second up leg has to reach the top of the first up leg so that the "W" look is complete. But maybe it will happen next week and won't we all celebrate if it does! :cool:

Thanks SB for such a postive posting - I certainly hope that we go up, I am reading different sources and others are confirming that a bottom is in. We shall see next week. :worried: I have learned my lesson the very hard way this month. :( But I am sure that we will recover at some point and not look back. :D
 
I think the major question as to a "W" bottom pattern is time. Right now, the pattern we are in shows on the order of "days"...but is the bottoming process something that only takes days, or months? Take a look at 1974/75:

big.chart
 
SB, My Jedi master thank you for your encouragement. Earlier this month I was saying how much I had lost. I realize that I have been trying to put a dollar figure on all of this. I have lost nothing but I am down 20-30% for the year. I will lose only of I panic and bail. I know that the market will recover and I my TSP will be up from last week, month, year. I am hoping that by the end of 2008 I will be at the numbers I had in mid August. Not the best but positive none the less.
I found some wisdom from another member last week. Wish I could remember which house I was in (too many brewskies):laugh: Bottom line is to try and make 1% to 1.5% a month, that is doable with 2 IFT's. I am planning on retiring in four years and that would put my TSP about where I would like it. :) Of course I have the time and age to retire now If a better offer came around or my management realy ticks me off.:nuts:
 
I think the major question as to a "W" bottom pattern is time. Right now, the pattern we are in shows on the order of "days"...but is the bottoming process something that only takes days, or months? Take a look at 1974/75:

CP, thanks for the illustration. I follow your thread like a Priest and the
Bible. I appreciate everything you share. ;)
 
SB, I am planning on retiring in four years and that would put my TSP about where I would like it. Of course I have the time and age to retire now If a better offer came around or my management realy ticks me off.

I haven't reached eligability yet, however, I'm hoping when the time comes
I'll be able to look at my work with different eyes. Right now, I have to !
Afterwards, I choose to ! I expect a certain amount of burden to be lifted
from my shoulders when I can say "I choose to". Its about having control
of what I do and not being forced out of necessity. Thanks for the shout
out. ;)
 
Federal retirees will get biggest COLA boost since 1982
By Melissa Turley, cyberFEDS® Washington Bureau

WASHINGTON -- The cost of living is up, which means a larger-than-usual benefit for federal annuitants. In January, Civil Service Retirement System retirees will receive a 5.8 percent cost of living adjustment. Annuitants under the Federal Employees Retirement System, including FERS special category employees and FERS survivors, will get a 4.8 percent increase.

FERS disabled retirees also get the adjustment unless they receive a disability annuity that is based on 60 percent of their high-three average salary. FERS recipients' Social Security benefits will be enhanced by 5.8 percent. The increases for 2009 will be the largest federal retirees have gotten since 1982, when it spiked 8.7 percent. They are based on the Department of Labor's Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, a measure of change in costs of goods and services from the third quarter of 2007 through Sept. 30.

CSRS annuitants receive the same COLA increase as Social Security recipients. For FERS, when the CPI increase is between 2 percent and 3 percent, the FERS COLA is 2 percent. If the actual increase is 2 percent or less, the FERS COLA matches the CPI increase. Federal employee groups welcomed the bigger benefit. "The COLA increase for retirees is critical," Colleen M. Kelley, president of the National Treasury Employees Union, said. "These increases are a small bit of welcome relief for retired federal workers who contributed so much to our nation."

Although pleased with the COLA increase, National Association of Active and Retired Federal Employees President Margaret Baptiste worries that the recent surge in inflation affecting food prices, utility bills, and health insurance premiums will make the COLA less effective for retirees She also fears that it could draw some unwanted attention on the federal retirement system when the FY 2010 budget process begins. "Federal retirees should not have to worry that today's COLA could come at the detriment of their future retirement income," she said. "NARFE, along with federal employees, retirees, and survivors, will be watching the next president and upcoming Congress closely to ensure they honor promises made to those who have, and continue, to serve our country."

Retirees under CSRS received 2.3 percent, while FERS got a 2 percent COLA increase for 2008.
 
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