So when is the bottom

[amoeba]

Asia is currently gapping sharply down again; tomorrow is looking like another dark, ugly day for the bahs (buy-and-holders). Could be a real puker if the senate votes early and GM files immediately for Ch. 11.

I don't know when the bottom is, but it isn't now, this week, or even this year, and possibly not next year either.

Unless...."something happens".......but I doubt it.

 

[wv-girl]

Bullitt,

You are correct about the dividends paying into the C,S,and I fund. However, that income is used to pay expenses rather than going to the TSP participant. As you know, having an outside account means having more risk but then again the rewards are greater. My TSP account is on auto-pilot and that is where it will stay as long as I can DCA into the C fund. I'm so looking forward to a $9.00 purchase with those extra share accumulations.

So, what do you do for fun?

 

[mick504]

I wish I knew...they are all guessing anyway. 'The true bottom' we won't know until its over and on it's way up. It will come like a thief in the night.

 

[Warrenlm]

Birchtree noted at one point he was down $600K. The reason this drop, and the incredible length of time now needed to return to previous levels, doesn't bother him is that he is investing for his grandchildren. That is a major difference from many government employees.

 

[James48843]

Man, it's looking ugly some more.

Asia and Europe still tanking.

I need a drink.

 

[Lobo]

Birchtree noted at one point he was down $600K. The reason this drop, and the incredible length of time now needed to return to previous levels, doesn't bother him is that he is investing for his grandchildren. That is a major difference from many government employees.

AMEN!!

 

[Lobo]

well lobo:

That depends on your risk tolerance; the market is pricing in a failure of Congress to provide any support of US automakers, which will result, likely before the first week of December - bankruptcy - lots of unemployment and the associated consequences. Among those will be a horrible holiday retail season, and an unemployment rate of 10% and up next year.

The Senate vote will be tomorrow at the earliest and friday at the latest. What will happen if some $25B rabbit comes out of a hat? And what will happen if it doesn't?

Now, I know what you're thinkin:

"did amoeba tell me to sell five times or six? To tell you the truth, in all this excitement, I forgot myself so you have to ask yourself:"

"Do I feel lucky?"

Nope....don't feel lucky yet...except that I sold in Jan of this year. Wasn't it you that said "Call me when we move above the 50 day MA for a week"? We think alot alike. I see the same forecast you are giving, and I don't have to make ALL the rebound. If I just make the last 50%, and even lose 25% of that on the way down again, I'll be fine. I'm not greedy.....I've found that's a good way for someone like me (very dumb in stock market analyses) to lose his shirt. I just need a little to make this retirement enjoyable.....and have fun!

By the way, retire the first day you can....it's absolutely great!!!!! I'm only 4 months into it, and loving it!! Of course, I'm a kid at heart....and love to play!

Lobo

 

[amoeba]

yes Lobo, that was me; but right now (11:20 am, 11/20/08), we're awaiting a statement from Congress in 10 minutes of what the flip they are talking about - I think right now the market is not believing there will be a vote this week; and if not, it's chapter 11 before christmas.

And did anyone catch gettelfinger (UAW) this morning? He offered nothing - no early wage concessions - just said gimme the money (they did negotiate concessions, for 2010, but that's relatively meaningless in the present situation). I have a hard time believing there will be a vote (certainly not today - and probably not before re-seating in January) and even if there was a special session - I don't think they have the votes in the Senate. We will see in the next 15 minutes or so. Should make for an interesting day.

Amoeba out

 

[wv-girl]

yes Lobo, that was me; but right now (11:20 am, 11/20/08), we're awaiting a statement from Congress in 10 minutes of what the flip they are talking about - I think right now the market is not believing there will be a vote this week; and if not, it's chapter 11 before christmas.

And did anyone catch gettelfinger (UAW) this morning? He offered nothing - no early wage concessions - just said gimme the money (they did negotiate concessions, for 2010, but that's relatively meaningless in the present situation). I have a hard time believing there will be a vote (certainly not today - and probably not before re-seating in January) and even if there was a special session - I don't think they have the votes in the Senate. We will see in the next 15 minutes or so. Should make for an interesting day.

Amoeba out

If Paulson(on air now-) would just stop saying the same thing over and over and actually do something constructive. He sounds like we are the ones needing education. There are a lot smarter people than him..except they are not being heard. BOTTOM = When he shuts up!

 

[poolman]

If Paulson(on air now-) would just stop saying the same thing over and over and actually do something constructive. He sounds like we are the ones needing education. There are a lot smarter people than him..except they are not being heard. BOTTOM = When he shuts up!

I'm sitting here falling asleep watching him. He's an idiot. I don't trust him.

 

[amoeba]

Yawwnnn, I'm so sleepy, I didn't even notice the rotation to bonds with price moves going off the charts.....at least people are investing in something.....but it ain't stocks.

BTW, I'm not in front of a TV, but what I gather - - - there is no auto bailout; some lip service about "come up with a plan by December" or something like that - - - I can see all the Lloyd Christmas's out there thinking:

"so what you're telling me is.....there's a chance"


Think again. They don't have the votes.

 

[wv-girl]

I'm sitting here falling asleep watching him. He's an idiot. I don't trust him.

So do you think we will go to a world currency? I am afraid that with the way things are going we will not have a choice. I hope history remembers what dolts this admin has turned out to be. I am beginning to believe all of this was planned. hmmm....

 

[Lobo]

yes Lobo, that was me; but right now (11:20 am, 11/20/08), we're awaiting a statement from Congress in 10 minutes of what the flip they are talking about - I think right now the market is not believing there will be a vote this week; and if not, it's chapter 11 before christmas.

And did anyone catch gettelfinger (UAW) this morning? He offered nothing - no early wage concessions - just said gimme the money (they did negotiate concessions, for 2010, but that's relatively meaningless in the present situation). I have a hard time believing there will be a vote (certainly not today - and probably not before re-seating in January) and even if there was a special session - I don't think they have the votes in the Senate. We will see in the next 15 minutes or so. Should make for an interesting day.

Amoeba out

No decent "plan" from the automakers, or no concessions = no vote! As it should be. Ya gotta give some to get some.

 

[poolman]

So do you think we will go to a world currency? I am afraid that with the way things are going we will not have a choice. I hope history remembers what dolts this admin has turned out to be. I am beginning to believe all of this was planned. hmmm....

I don't think we are quite there yet. I will say this though, This economy is being held up on stilt's which I think is mainly priced in. I didn't want to tell the MB but I lost my job yesterday.

 

[amoeba]

error not in my favor

what the F-fund?

I briefly saw a 102 in the AGG at the bottom of the web-page; and it is gone now......no....wait a minute....there it is again_ _ _ at the bottom of this reply-to-thread page; but the main yahoo site showed it at 97.

Something maybe "eff-ed up" here; the moderators may wish to look into it.

Sorry for any confusion.

 

[Frixxxx]

Re: error not in my favor

what the F-fund?

I briefly saw a 102 in the AGG at the bottom of the web-page; and it is gone now......no....wait a minute....there it is again_ _ _ at the bottom of this reply-to-thread page; but the main yahoo site showed it at 97.

Something maybe "eff-ed up" here; the moderators may wish to look into it.

Sorry for any confusion.

Turn off caching in your settings of your web browser....if you refresh everytime, it may correct the issue.

 

[amoeba]

I don't think we are quite there yet. I will say this though, This economy is being held up on stilt's which I think is mainly priced in. I didn't want to tell the MB but I lost my job yesterday.

Well, if economic instinct is a qualification as indicated by your rank on this message board, you clearly have more than most....I think there will be a few openings for people with those skills.

 

[amoeba]

Re: error not in my favor

Turn off caching in your settings of your web browser....if you refresh everytime, it may correct the issue.

Actually, Frixxxx, it is showing the wrong symbol chart - that is TLT - when the main page is showing AGG.

 

[fabijo]

So do you think we will go to a world currency? I am afraid that with the way things are going we will not have a choice.

It looks like one day it will happen, but who knows how long that will take. The world leaders just had their summit this past weekend and agreed that each country will have their finance ministers come up with a system for their country that follows a set of guidelines that was just laid out. That's one step in the direction of lining up all of us onto the same sheet. It makes for a smoother transition down the road.

 

[Frixxxx]

Re: error not in my favor

Actually, Frixxxx, it is showing the wrong symbol chart - that is TLT - when the main page is showing AGG.

Thanks for pointing out the obvious....I get the "Duh!" award for that last post.:embarrest: