So when is the bottom

[Warrenlm]

Actually, I think the Obama economic announcement on Monday will give the market at least a short term significant boost, assuming they use a huge number, over $600B, and a goal to have a plan in place Jan 21.

Will "hope" from a Monday statement be enough to freeze the panic in its steps and make us wish we'd IFTed Friday noon?

Separate comment....Don Harrold seemed to telling people to buy lasr Thursday night.

 

[ATCJeff]

Actually, I think the Obama economic announcement on Monday will give the market at least a short term significant boost, assuming they use a huge number, over $600B, and a goal to have a plan in place Jan 21.

Will "hope" from a Monday statement be enough to freeze the panic in its steps and make us wish we'd IFTed Friday noon?

Separate comment....Don Harrold seemed to telling people to buy lasr Thursday night.

I'm ready for a Thanksgiving and Christmas rally.

 

[fabijo]

I'm ready for a Thanksgiving and Christmas rally.

I'm interested in seeing how it turns out, too. I've heard a couple people talking about doing a cash only Christmas this year. What's up with that? We're not supposed to be responsible people. We're supposed to max out our credit cards. It makes the economy go round.

 

[Mike vB]

11-20-2008

My Guess
- - - - - ->> 6,000/700 we'll be close

Eerily closer

 

[felixthecat]

I'm thinking 710-725 on the S&P and we hit it tomorrow before noon. VIX will spike big time and set off big rally in gold. Will be working feverously tonight to evaluate entry point and mixture.

Futures are going to gap down big in order to make that possible. Grim Reaper is definitely preparing to grab a few victims. This is what happens when government starts tinkering with economics.

 

[hessian]

Will be working feverously tonight to evaluate entry point and mixture.

Grim Reaper is definitely preparing to grab a few victims. This is what happens when government starts tinkering with economics.

Bet the PPT wil be busy through the night - think?:nuts:
(Watch the Banks jump up, after tanking today:suspicious

 

[Viva_La_Migra]

Bet the PPT wil be busy through the night - think?:nuts:
(Watch the Banks jump up, after tanking today:suspicious

I forget...what the heck is the PPT?

 

[Bullitt]

(Watch the Banks jump up, after tanking today)

So, what if the banks jump 100%? They are still down 90% off their highs so what difference does it make? The banks are already nationalized, but they are great tool for anyone day trading because of the high volume and volatility.

Trade that gap up Hessian- I know you know how.

Can pension funds even invest in BAC and C anymore these days with their price being near penny stock status?

 

[Frixxxx]

Studying my charts from 1930, the great Depression era. If we now match the movement then, by the end of this year the DOW will be 4,000:worried:. But that's if we retrace that pattern.

I REALLY HOPE that's not the bottom, because a total retracement means the end of 2010 shows: 2800:blink:

Bottom??? Anybody's guess!!!!!

 

[KevinD]

I forget...what the heck is the PPT?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Working_Group_on_Financial_Markets

 

[Steadygain]

BOTTOM
​

TIME - 8 or 9/09

Deepest Dive will occur between now and 6/09

then slowly - very slowly touch BOTTOM later on


NUMBERS - Expect the SPX to be <600 ​

 

[hessian]

So, what if the banks jump 100%? They are still down 90% off their highs so what difference does it make? The banks are already nationalized, but they are great tool for anyone day trading because of the high volume and volatility.

Trade that gap up Hessian- I know you know how.

Can pension funds even invest in BAC and C anymore these days with their price being near penny stock status?

Its common knowledge that the Banks STARTED this problem. Its my belief they have since been manipulating this market for over a year - by shaking down the masses - for their own gain. As you point out, they are now nationalized - you DON'T think they ARE NOT the PPT? -or at least a BIG part?
AND, they're getting our taxpayer dollars to boot!
Their drags down, (or sometimes up ) just to reverse the next day or 2, are a ploy, IMHO. - Go on in tomorrow, I've been observing the consequences for at least the last 6 months!
VR

 

[Gumby]

BOTTOM​

TIME - 8 or 9/09 ​

Deepest Dive will occur between now and 6/09​

then slowly - very slowly touch BOTTOM later on​

NUMBERS - Expect the SPX to be <600 ​

That is going to cause a big divot in alot of people's IRA's.:worried:

 

[Frixxxx]

That is going to cause a big divot in alot of people's IRA's.:worried:

2009, the year IRA became known as the Ineffective Retirement Account.:suspicious:

 

[nnuut]

2009, the year IRA became known as the Ineffective Retirement Account.:suspicious:

That tells all of us Gov't Employees what a favor they did when they changed our retirement plan to FERS from CSRS and MANDATED NSPS! It is all about saving money for the Gov't and taking it away from the PATRIOTS that work for them. This is really a sad situation and the American People would have NEVER approved it, but nobody asked them.

 

[McDuck]

That tells all of us Gov't Employees what a favor they did when they changed our retirement plan to FERS from CSRS

Yes, all the union members in 1982-83 took care of themselves and dumped on the future workers. So much for being a union .

 

[James48843]

A rehash of the earlier discussion on this thread about the correlation between the NAHB Housing Index, and, six months later, the price of stocks in the S&P 500. Correlation since 1995 has been about 80%.

Here is the chart:

View attachment 6070

Be careful out there.

While the last week's runup has been nice, we still should not forget that the correlation with the housing index remains incredibly strong. I added in two yellow arrows here- showing where the housing market blipped up for a short period, just before crashing downward again. NAHB housing index seems to lead stock prices by 6 to 8 months.

If that holds true- then we are about to have another real problem. NAHB housing index hit a new low last month- and now sits at just "9". That COULD translate into an S&P 500 value of 200.

Be careful.
​

 

[dannyboy]

I'm new here. It's quite interesting. Started a new thread cause this doesn't seem to fit any other.

The only reaction I've had was to change my allocations from 40 G 30 F 30 C to 70 G and 30 F. Waiting for the bottom to start buying C again.

I have been neglecting my TSP. When I finally decided to take some action I found I had lost my PIN and had to wait a week to get a password. I have never done an IFT. Never got in to L when it was created.

I think I may have over reacted when I changed my allocations but maybe not. I have until Friday at 1159 EST to decide. Didn't want to put more money in to a dying thing.

So, now I am depending on all of you to tell me when to transfer all my funds in to C, I or L-something. Gotta time it so I can get in on the rocket ship when it goes off. Then I can retire next year.

Just kidding about that, but all the inputs from all of you are great! So how do we determine when the bottom is? So many indicators such as ted.

Hope I get lucky and do it at the right time.

Best of luck to all of you.

Dave

Hi, these items may be an indicator:
Top 10 headlines that could signal a market bottom

With few technical or fundamental road signs left, two equity strategists have devised a top 10 list for investors searching for signs of a bottom, not to be confused with a bear-market rally.


At turns both serious and tongue-in-cheek, pro'soffer the following as their top 10 signs of a market bottom:

1. A significant (more than 10%) one- or two-day drop in the market. The current orderly decline, while severe, is largely running in line with the deteriorating U.S. economy, said Colas and Klachkin. Therefore, an even sharper drop would position stocks as cheap, relative to fundamentals -- "perhaps even cheap enough to make a bottom," the analysts said.
2. Timothy Geithner is replaced with Paul Volcker. Fairly or not, the market does not have a lot of confidence in Treasury Secretary Geithner, while former Federal Reserve Chairman Volcker's "proven abilities in a crisis could play better with investors," the analysts said. Volcker currently heads the Economic Recovery Advisory Board under President Barack Obama.
3. The 100th day of a bankruptcy by General Motors Corp. The first few weeks of a Chapter 11 filing by the automobile maker (GM: General Motors Corporation would likely be chaotic, given the industry's linkage with so many parts of the economy. "After the initial problems, though, the market may have finally discounted the structural challenges of the U.S. economy," said Colas and Klachkin.
4. Gold at $2,000 an ounce. "Gold is the ultimate capital-markets panic play. A quick double in the metal would be a strong contrarian indicator that it was time to buy stocks," the analysts said. "I'm not sure I want to live in a world where gold is $2,000 an ounce. It would mean something is tremendously wrong. From an equity standpoint, the best thing you can say about gold right now is that it hasn't broken out to record highs even in the face of uncertainty," Colas said in an interview with MarketWatch.
5. The Dow Jones Industrial Average changes more than two names at the same time, and/or adds names to increase the overall number of stocks in the index. "There are some 'zombie stocks' in the index to borrow a popular phrase. The Dow is price-weighted, so small-priced stocks are almost irrelevant to the performance of the index. By the time the senior editors of Dow Jones recognize they need to change some names in the index, it may be time to [reconsider] the market as a whole."
6. New York Stock Exchange daily volume drops to 1 billion shares for 30 sessions in a row. "Sometimes you just need everyone to give up to make a bottom," the analysts reasoned.
7. One million jobs lost in a month. Such a bad number could indicate a bottom, given the lagging nature of the employment count.
8. The market starts to rally on bad news. "In prior cycles, bad news turned into good market performance when it showed that [the] Fed had the economic reason to cut interest rates. In this market, the Fed is out of bullets, so bad news is bad. When the market can rally on bad news, it is a great sign that valuations finally reflect the current environment," the analysts said.
9. Stock market favorites see 15% to 20% declines. When standout companies -- such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc. "get clobbered" you'll know a bottom is near, they said.
10. CNBC goes off the air. "The entire financial community has a love/hate relationship with the box in the corner of every trading room that is permanently turned to the network. The only certain bottom would be when so few people care that the network has to close."
11. On Monday, Geithner remained Treasury secretary and CNBC remained on the air, as stocks meandered between gains and losses, with energy stocks leading the gains and telecommunication services pacing the declines.

Then Again, Maybe Not???

 

[dpmp]

James48843,

Could you please post a link where the chart is? Thanks.