So when is the bottom

[Frixxxx]

You can just call me boy - I'd take it as a compliment. You know we are not all pusillanimous. There is enough cash on the sidelines to send the Dow up quicker than it came down. Cash in money market funds alone could buy 27% of the SPX - the highest level in 24 years.

Nothing but a compliment, my friend. You are a true market signal for me and I'm sure a few more on the MB. I had no clue you did financial services. I learned a new thing about a friend today.

Keep them prosperous! You da MAN!

 

[poolman]

You can just call me boy - I'd take it as a compliment. You know we are not all pusillanimous. There is enough cash on the sidelines to send the Dow up quicker than it came down. Cash in money market funds alone could buy 27% of the SPX - the highest level in 24 years.

It really is to Bad you rode this down as far as you did.

You are a Rock... And have one Hell of allot of money.

 

[Birchtree]

And when the run starts I'm going to have a lot more money and many more shares in both of my accounts. I'm satisfied with my discipline because I don't need the money for several years from now if at all - I hope the new administration will delete the regulation for required minimum distributions at age 70 1/2.

 

[XL-entLady]

Sy is forecasting a bottom, and some good news in with the bad. We'll see if he's right.

"....If we are just entering a similar 16 month recession, it would not end until early 2010. .....That ties into a few of my other forecasts, that the stock market is in a serious bear market, which will see its low for this year in the October/November time-frame, but will not see its final low until 2009 or 2010. That, like the bear markets of 2000-2002, and 1973-74, this one will also last for upwards of three years.
Looking back to the bear market of 2000-2002, the S&P 500 declined 50% in total, the decline interrupted by three bear market rallies, of 17%, 19.5%, and 17.5%.
In the bear market of 1973-1974 the S&P 500 declined 45.2% in total, the decline interrupted by two bear market rallies, of 17.4% and 13.4%.
So let’s refine my forecast for the current bear market a bit more.
The market has become much more volatile in this bear market – like you don’t know that, given the frequent 5% to 10% one-day moves in both directions. And its initial decline this year has been more substantial, to more deeply oversold conditions, than the declines in the first year of the 2000-2002 and 1973-74 bears.
So I expect the bear market rallies will be more substantial, probably as much as 30% or more.
If I am correct with the forecast of a low this year in October/November, possibly already seen, and then a resumption of the bear market next year, it follows that it will likely be as important next year as it was this year for investors to become comfortable positioning for market declines. Bear-type mutual funds and ‘inverse’ exchange-traded-funds are likely to again be the source for larger and easier profits than the bear market rallies.
But short-term, the market is potentially oversold, investor sentiment is at record levels of bearishness, and fear among investors and on Main Street is similar to that seen near significant stock market lows.
So, we should soon see if the second half of my prediction for this year will also come to pass, after the low in the October/November time-frame for a significant rally to year end.
We are watching our charts and buy/sell indicators closely with that in mind."

http://www.streetsmartreport.com/comm3.html

Lady

 

[Birchtree]

Thanks Lady - we need more postings with statistics and facts. Then we would gather information to help us all make intelligent decisions rather than flying by our pants.

 

[JOVARN]

I need to narrow this list down to 6. Tell me what you would keep.
Thanks in advance for your in-put.

GE,CAT,DELL,FRX,CSCO,SAY,PHG,VIP,ADI,JCI,XIDE,CEG

 

[Birchtree]

Keep: FRX, SAY, JCI, CEG, GE, DELL.

The S&P is down 42% from the October' 07 highs - it took 2.5 years from 2000-2002 for a drop of 50%. The ride up from March '03 to Feb. '04 was 3,000 points - I look for more than that this time around when the bull steps up. With the SPX breadth MCO still not able to move above its declining tops line this means that until this line is violated, the market remains vulnerable.

 

[Rod]

Then there will never be a bottom.

Yeah, when's the last time you were 100 (G)???

 

[Warrenlm]

With the SPX breadth MCO still not able to move above its declining tops line this means that until this line is violated, the market remains vulnerable.

I am taking that to be the most "less than halffull" I've seen.

I'm guessing that you're suggesting to let go of CAT despite its dividend because of the expected overseas contraction ?

 

[Birchtree]

I would not sell any stock at this point that is paying a nice dividend - as a matter of fact I've recently made 72 purchases in the last three weeks and have 104 more to make in the next two weeks - mostly all dividend payers. I need the market to stay down to get these remaining golden prices. I have a ton of dividends paying the first week of November. The underlying value of most businesses does not hang on what happens in the stock market, and many stocks overseas have become even bigger bargains than U.S. shares. Fear and panic means you are now unusually prone to acting on a gut feeling, instead of thinking.

 

[Warrenlm]

I understand what you're saying, birchtree, but you did not select CAT to keep, and that's why I asked and posited a reason?

 

[Birchtree]

If you decide to keep seven rather than six, then CAT would be a keeper - it's all in the sacrifice.

 

[budnipper1]

You can just call me boy - I'd take it as a compliment. You know we are not all pusillanimous. There is enough cash on the sidelines to send the Dow up quicker than it came down. Cash in money market funds alone could buy 27% of the SPX - the highest level in 24 years.

pusillanimous/ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qyHS4met7c
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[PessOptimist]

I just re read this thread I started less than a month ago. A lot of the replies and comments make a lot more sense now that I have been reading the message board. Some of the comments really make sense now that I have gotten to know all of you a little bit.

Now, on behalf of all of us new "kids" in the back seat on this ride to the bottom, ARE WE THERE YET?, ARE WE THERE YET?, ARE WE THERE YET?, ARE WE THERE YET?, ARE WE THERE YET? Bet if you really knew you would tell us. Thanks for the ride so far.

Best of luck to all of us in finding the bottom.

Buster, do you change your avatar often? Liked the pumpkins better.

 

[Guest2]

I just re read this thread I started less than a month ago. A lot of the replies and comments make a lot more sense now that I have been reading the message board. Some of the comments really make sense now that I have gotten to know all of you a little bit.

Now, on behalf of all of us new "kids" in the back seat on this ride to the bottom, ARE WE THERE YET?, ARE WE THERE YET?, ARE WE THERE YET?, ARE WE THERE YET?, ARE WE THERE YET? Bet if you really knew you would tell us. Thanks for the ride so far.

Best of luck to all of us in finding the bottom.

Buster, do you change your avatar often? Liked the pumpkins better.

There is a quote that you'll find that most Professionals use, including
many of our members when it comes to seeking the bottom of a Bear
Market. It goes something like this;

"TRYING TO CATCH OR CALL A BOTTOM IS LIKE TRYING TO CATCH A FALLING KNIFE"

So you see my friend, if you wish to avoid bleeding to death, it might be
wiser to miss the first 15% in order to catch the next 35%. Just food for
thought. I listen very closely to Art Cashen on CNBC to get some clues.
I find him extremely knowledgable and he's not overly eager to jump on
the bandwagon and call a bottom.

 

[Birchtree]

October 10th was the bottom - we have tested it twice so far during this basing period. That's why I'm an aggressive buyer during this time period.

 

[Frixxxx]

October 10th was the bottom - we have tested it twice so far during this basing period. That's why I'm an aggressive buyer during this time period.

I think "Third times a Charm" in this situation. Although, we have seen strides to keep us out of a serious hole, I still feel the worst (7500) will be the ultimate bottom.
The non-farm payroll numbers confirm the state of our economics. Until I see a reversal of negative numbers here, I think there will be less and less to look forward to. I can appreciate your expectations on the cash that is outside the market, but I don't see it coming in in droves. If anything, they will "leak" it into the markets without much fanfare.

If I'm wrong, then I'll buy for the higher price. I'll also send you a framed copy of my picture holding a sign saying "Birchtree was right".

Peace brother

 

[James48843]

Man, it's getting ugly today, eh?

 

[Frixxxx]

I think it is ugly, considering the volume of trades today.......

High volume, negative numbers......I wish I would have "one-day" traded the C fund for tomorrow......I think it could be a good 4-5% up fo the 13th.


We'll See!!!!

 

[budnipper1]

Stocks lower as Paulson unveils change in bailout
Wednesday November 12, 11:43 am ET
Wall Street losses steepen as Paulson unveils plan to not buy distressed bank assets
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081112/wall_street.html


While concerns about consumer spending contributed to the market's declines on Monday and Tuesday, Paulson's remarks on Wednesday underscored the anxiety that remains about the health of the financial system.

Though the announcement marks a major shift in the original bailout plan and seemed to rattle investors, Wall Street analysts generally believe that the Treasury is now on the right path.

"That's really what they should have done originally," said Matt King, chief investment officer of Bell Investment Advisors. "First and foremost, we have to make sure banks are going to survive and then we can worry about lending. This is the quickest and most efficient way to do that."
"Buying bad assets doesn't do that," he said.

In corporate news, the future of the country's top automakers remained a major concern on the Street. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi wants Congress to support a financial bailout for the troubled U.S. auto industry, which is suffering under the weight of poor sales, tight credit and a sputtering economy.

President-elect Obama, when he met with President Bush at the White House on Monday, urged Bush to support aid for the auto industry, and Democrats in Congress have begun drafting legislation that would give General Motors, Ford and Chrysler access to $25 billion of the rescue funds.


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