Just my thoughts on the topic of the "Bottom"
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So when is the bottom
- Thread starter PessOptimist
- Start date
James48843
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 905
Right about now is a good time to wheel out that old chart about the comparison of Housing, to the S&P 500, where we saw a huge drop off in housing that fell flat.
remember that chart?
Who had that last- wasn't it Fabijo who did an update on it?
Last I heard, the NAHB Housing Index was hovering around 14, which would put the S&P 500 at around 300 or so.
You think it will fall that much more?
remember that chart?
Who had that last- wasn't it Fabijo who did an update on it?
Last I heard, the NAHB Housing Index was hovering around 14, which would put the S&P 500 at around 300 or so.
You think it will fall that much more?
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This is the best i could find, Next Post
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poolman
Top Return 2008
- Reaction score
- 70
There will be no bottom until after the end of the bailouts, and there is no hope for any additional bailout. These interventions serve to falsely and temporarily prop up the market. Like another stimulus package, or the one of "fifty" (that's paulson's estimate from this morning's conference of the number of plans he has reviewed) foreclosure bailouts. Most of those are absolutely nutz - as they depend on 38% of pretax income going into the loan payment (even though the historical norm is no more than 31%). And remember that's an average, most of these people are poor - so they probably can't even afford 30%.
I did want to point out that neither presidential candidate was willing to toss any more than pocket change at foreclosures ($10-15 billion, was Obama's estimate); at 6 million forclosures, that's about what? $2,000 bucks a house?
I have another foreclosure plan. Let them happen. Get people out of houses that can't afford loan payments. Get people into those houses who can afford to pay the loans. The rest can rent.
But the boobie prize in this foreclosure mess is that the people who qualify for these alleged "solutions" probably won't participate in any significant number. As dumb as they were to take out these loans to begin with, they hav probably figured out that the house will never recover what will put into it, and rather ditch the house (live in it for free for 6-8 months while they are non-paying before the actual foreclosure/eviction); then try again in 4 (short sale) or 7 (foreclosure) years, when it comes off their credit record.
I did want to point out that neither presidential candidate was willing to toss any more than pocket change at foreclosures ($10-15 billion, was Obama's estimate); at 6 million forclosures, that's about what? $2,000 bucks a house?
I have another foreclosure plan. Let them happen. Get people out of houses that can't afford loan payments. Get people into those houses who can afford to pay the loans. The rest can rent.
But the boobie prize in this foreclosure mess is that the people who qualify for these alleged "solutions" probably won't participate in any significant number. As dumb as they were to take out these loans to begin with, they hav probably figured out that the house will never recover what will put into it, and rather ditch the house (live in it for free for 6-8 months while they are non-paying before the actual foreclosure/eviction); then try again in 4 (short sale) or 7 (foreclosure) years, when it comes off their credit record.
Larry Braaten
First Allocation
- Reaction score
- 0
I've been paying more attention to the market recently - kinda hard not to with the press it has been getting. I went with the "expert" who said the trading range should be 850-1000 for the S&P for ???? time and bought in for tomorrow. I go to Las Vegas a couple of times a year and play the horse races frequently, but to go into the stock market doesn't seem any less risky to me. The way my luck runs I could see that 300 figure become a reality. Hang on, it's going to be a bumpy ride!
clester
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 37
Oscar of www.livewithoscar.com says we go to S&P 688 if we break the lows of 839 in Oct. That would be huge. We need to hold that low.
Your chart is now on my wall. Thanks squalebear
LoL, sorry about the sizing. After three failed attempts to make it bigger,
when it finally happend, I was just glad it was over.:nuts:
James48843
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 905
What the heck just happened- the S&P is tanking- down to 818 and falling....
turbo23dog
TSP Strategist
- Reaction score
- 9
Whew. We were SP 820 at 1:00 and here it is 2:20 and we are marching well into green SP 860 +6. What the heck is going on?
What's going on?
Probably some short-term bottom fishing based on technicals such as the 52-week intraday low being breached; stuff like that.T The data trends look aweful and are not even meeting lowered expectations.
Yet another sucker's rally in a tight trading range, likely to break to the downside sooner rather than later. More bad economic numbers today, and to come later this week.
I'm not buying into this.
Probably some short-term bottom fishing based on technicals such as the 52-week intraday low being breached; stuff like that.T The data trends look aweful and are not even meeting lowered expectations.
Yet another sucker's rally in a tight trading range, likely to break to the downside sooner rather than later. More bad economic numbers today, and to come later this week.
I'm not buying into this.
One thing I can say with confidence. Asia will have a nice rebound, Europe
will watch closely before comitting and the U.S. Futures will mean nothing
until early morning Friday. Cross your fingers ! This could be one heck of a
Friday.
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Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
The VIX reached an intraday high on Oct. 24 of 89.53, nearly twice what, prior to October, had been its all time high. If that isn't capitulation - what is? We still remain above rising bottoms line from the October lows. The gains tomorrow on the follow through day should be significant and also occur on strong volume possibly locking the bottom.
I wouldn't call an intraday low of 819 an indication of "rising" anything, unless it's rising initial unemployment claims.
As I said, a sucker's rally. Definitely a sell. Nothing to trade into at this point. Still have some lip service out there regarding stimulus and other fed actions that may cause some interim response. The outlook is bad; this market is a wait till next year scenario, if not the year after that.
One thing I can say with confidence. Asia will have a nice rebound, Europe
will watch closely before comitting and the U.S. Futures will mean nothing
until early morning Friday. Cross your fingers ! This could be one heck of a
Friday.
Well, I was kinda right. It looks like one heck of a "bad" day.
turbo23dog
TSP Strategist
- Reaction score
- 9
One of the this evening's Fast Money guys on MSNBC just pointed out that today's close formed a triple bottom which he said was a strong indication of a bottom, although one of the others cracked that I anything, it was just "A Bottom" and not the bottom we'll see come January 2009.
