sniper
Active member
So much for that!
Another pullback, nearing a sell signal (if i were trading this as an ETF, my stop loss point would be at the breakdown point of the current up channel @12,900).
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sniper's Account Talk
- Thread starter sniper
- Start date
So much for that!
Another pullback, nearing a sell signal (if i were trading this as an ETF, my stop loss point would be at the breakdown point of the current up channel @12,900).
sniper
Active member
pulling the trigger on the G fund and going to wait for a better time to buy. the last 2 days didn't look good at all.
yesterday's rally got cut to nothing in EOD action, and today's intraday recovery got smacked down quickly. bears taken control of the market it seems for the time being
yesterday's rally got cut to nothing in EOD action, and today's intraday recovery got smacked down quickly. bears taken control of the market it seems for the time being
sniper
Active member
and i cancelled that IFT this morning, I keep slapping myself in the head to stay the course with the system, and not let emotions get in the way (which I did last night). easier said than done, hopefully it gets easier as I gain more experience.
today's market looks totally crazy. down, up, down, up.. some day swing traders must have had a huge payday (or losses)
it's gonna take some willpower, but I'm going to try not to watch the market intraday. When I started doing that, I started thinking of making moves based off impulses and that usually = losses, and more importantly, impulse moves will make me stray from the system I'm trying to test out. Can't ever tell if it's working if I don't stick with it right?
today's market looks totally crazy. down, up, down, up.. some day swing traders must have had a huge payday (or losses)
it's gonna take some willpower, but I'm going to try not to watch the market intraday. When I started doing that, I started thinking of making moves based off impulses and that usually = losses, and more importantly, impulse moves will make me stray from the system I'm trying to test out. Can't ever tell if it's working if I don't stick with it right?
Bquat
Well-known member
Not watch the market intraday? What a concept! Wish I could learn to do that again.
I am winging myself from it.
Been asked to join up to four senior leagues since my average is getting better as I age.
Sensei
Well-known member
I feel you. My "system" in a bull market is to stay in as long as SPX is above the 20 day SMA. When it goes below, I look at the next morning for confirmation. Around the deadline, it was back above the 20 day at 1410-11, so I stayed in. It ended up closing back below, though, so I'm going to watch Tuesday morning for confirmation.
sniper
Active member
Not watch the market intraday? What a concept! Wish I could learn to do that again.
It's one thing I need to stop doing, because watching the intraday market swings makes me constantly second guess myself. It works for some, but definitely not me :laugh:
Seems to be effective so far, I would love to be in the top 50 someday
yeah usually when it's around those selling threshold levels, the market becomes a lot more stressful because I seem to get on the fence a lot about what to do. I'll try and check to see what happens, at the end of tuesday instead of the morning though haha. Ah who am I kidding, I prolly will check to see what's happening before the IFT deadline haha.
sniper
Active member
Whew, I'm a little worn out after this week, but here's a chart and maybe some reasons to be bullish still going into one of the most heinous months of the year for the market
The S&P seems to be showing resistance at around the 1400 level. The oscillator is showing a trend toward oversold while the price lows have been getting higher.
With that said, time to enjoy the 3-day weekend and I may possibly move my funds to a more defensive position next week. reason being is i'm going to be flying to oregon next week for almost 2 weeks, and I wanna enjoy my break rather than police the stock market during my vacation. Have a great weekend!
The S&P seems to be showing resistance at around the 1400 level. The oscillator is showing a trend toward oversold while the price lows have been getting higher.
With that said, time to enjoy the 3-day weekend and I may possibly move my funds to a more defensive position next week. reason being is i'm going to be flying to oregon next week for almost 2 weeks, and I wanna enjoy my break rather than police the stock market during my vacation. Have a great weekend!
ILoveTDs
Member
Thank you sniper.
Some of the abbreviations were over my head, but I didn't really know what the VIX was before this video although I had heard it used many time in previous posts. I always assumed it kinda tracked volume, apparently I was wrong. Definitely worth the three minutes, please keep posting.
Some of the abbreviations were over my head, but I didn't really know what the VIX was before this video although I had heard it used many time in previous posts. I always assumed it kinda tracked volume, apparently I was wrong. Definitely worth the three minutes, please keep posting.
sniper
Active member
I'll post charts later today when I'm off work.
Just checked market activity and looked like a lot of excitement. Overall market down, small caps had a HUGE day today, so S fund could still be a decent gainer (RUT up 1.3%).
Some observations...
- Bearish Case:
-VIX stayed above the bollinger band 2 out of the last 3 trading days and could be considered breaking out, one thing to watch.
-S&P failed to break above the 20-day SMA once again. watch out for role reversal.
- Bullish Case:
- The Russell 2000 (small caps) broke out above the intermediate 820 resistance rather convincingly.
- S&P & Transportation index (IYT) bounced nicely off the bottom bollinger, forming some possible reversal candles
- S&P Held above what seems to be resistance at 1400 (graph later), despite the VIX increases has managed to not lose much.
Just checked market activity and looked like a lot of excitement. Overall market down, small caps had a HUGE day today, so S fund could still be a decent gainer (RUT up 1.3%).
Some observations...
- Bearish Case:
-VIX stayed above the bollinger band 2 out of the last 3 trading days and could be considered breaking out, one thing to watch.
-S&P failed to break above the 20-day SMA once again. watch out for role reversal.
- Bullish Case:
- The Russell 2000 (small caps) broke out above the intermediate 820 resistance rather convincingly.
- S&P & Transportation index (IYT) bounced nicely off the bottom bollinger, forming some possible reversal candles
- S&P Held above what seems to be resistance at 1400 (graph later), despite the VIX increases has managed to not lose much.
sniper
Active member
Alright here's some observations for today...
The S&P chart still doesn't look bad. The lower Bollinger was tested, and rebounded nicely. The 1400 level seems to be resistance since early August, was tested for the 5th time since then, and held. Nothing really to see much here, other than the intraday swing was a big one.
Next chart is the VIX, which I was positive would be on the downswing to start this week off, and I was wrong. Last week friday's move looked like a topping pattern but today's close is once again breaking outside of the top bollinger band. It has already broken out of a descending wedge, and how high it goes from here I don't know. But this one I'm definitely keeping my eye on. If it goes downward, look for it to test the 16 mark.
The Transportation Index seems to be holding its triangle pattern, but what bothers me is that today's low broke through the pattern. This is something I'm going to keep my eye on. On the bright side, it closed within the boundary.
Small caps were by far today's major (only) winner, with the Russell 200 breaking out above the 820 level. A week ago, I posted a graph of the RUT forming a cup and handle. The breakout wasn't as clean as I expected, but it managed to do it nonetheless. Tomorrow is a confirmation whether the breakout will be for real, or a fakeout.
Overall, the VIX/S&P and IYT graphs give me some warning signals, but no screaming sell signal yet. For those who are playing high risk, this could be a possible bottom picking opportunity. The RUT movement was strange, as small caps greatly outperformed the broad market, which is one reason why I'm a little wary on this breakout. Usually failed breakouts are followed by large losses, so I'm definitely going to watch what happens in the next few days.
With that said, I'm likely going to switch my funds to a safer location on the 6th because I'll be taking a 2 week vacation (even if things are looking good). My girlfriend will kill me if I spend any time during our trip looking at the stock market, but there's no way I can do that if my money's not in cash :laugh:. Under normal circumstances, I would probably protect my gains if the S&P failed to hold 1400, as that looks like the most significant resistance point in the last month's time.
The S&P chart still doesn't look bad. The lower Bollinger was tested, and rebounded nicely. The 1400 level seems to be resistance since early August, was tested for the 5th time since then, and held. Nothing really to see much here, other than the intraday swing was a big one.
Next chart is the VIX, which I was positive would be on the downswing to start this week off, and I was wrong. Last week friday's move looked like a topping pattern but today's close is once again breaking outside of the top bollinger band. It has already broken out of a descending wedge, and how high it goes from here I don't know. But this one I'm definitely keeping my eye on. If it goes downward, look for it to test the 16 mark.
The Transportation Index seems to be holding its triangle pattern, but what bothers me is that today's low broke through the pattern. This is something I'm going to keep my eye on. On the bright side, it closed within the boundary.
Small caps were by far today's major (only) winner, with the Russell 200 breaking out above the 820 level. A week ago, I posted a graph of the RUT forming a cup and handle. The breakout wasn't as clean as I expected, but it managed to do it nonetheless. Tomorrow is a confirmation whether the breakout will be for real, or a fakeout.
Overall, the VIX/S&P and IYT graphs give me some warning signals, but no screaming sell signal yet. For those who are playing high risk, this could be a possible bottom picking opportunity. The RUT movement was strange, as small caps greatly outperformed the broad market, which is one reason why I'm a little wary on this breakout. Usually failed breakouts are followed by large losses, so I'm definitely going to watch what happens in the next few days.
With that said, I'm likely going to switch my funds to a safer location on the 6th because I'll be taking a 2 week vacation (even if things are looking good). My girlfriend will kill me if I spend any time during our trip looking at the stock market, but there's no way I can do that if my money's not in cash :laugh:. Under normal circumstances, I would probably protect my gains if the S&P failed to hold 1400, as that looks like the most significant resistance point in the last month's time.
sniper
Active member
tbh, not as much activity as I've been used to seeing. Then again, I don't spend much time at touristy places where they'd be like Waikiki or Ala Moana. But there are more japanese surfers in the water this year, maybe they're starting to get into less expensive hobbies than shopping haha.
Some early observations today...
- Small cap (RUT) breakout confirmed. Price target 870-880 based on depth of cup and handle pattern.
- S&P breakout if it holds 1420, confirmation tomorrow?
- Surprised there was no volume spike in the market after a move like today still.
For fun I joined Wall Street Survivor, my first move was a pretty good one so far, not bad for 1 day :laugh:, now if i just had some real money to play with
Attachments
sniper
Active member
Here's the last charts I'll post until the 17th (return from vacation). Things are looking bullish in the short term.
SPX breakout over April high, a nice cup& handle completed. Look for confirmation tomorrow if it stays above that long resistance point.
DJIND looking poised to breakout of a similar pattern. Coffee anyone?
VIX is currently testing its old breakout out of the rising wedge. Keep an eye on this, if it fails to hold its breakout level, it could be bulls on parade. if not, the rally could run out of steam.
While things are looking bullish so far, exercise caution, if the SPX / DOW reverses in the next 2 days, failed breakouts usually = wicked downside. There is still the last hour in the trading day, and usually I post charts at the end, but I've gotta get going. Hasta luego!
SPX breakout over April high, a nice cup& handle completed. Look for confirmation tomorrow if it stays above that long resistance point.
DJIND looking poised to breakout of a similar pattern. Coffee anyone?
VIX is currently testing its old breakout out of the rising wedge. Keep an eye on this, if it fails to hold its breakout level, it could be bulls on parade. if not, the rally could run out of steam.
While things are looking bullish so far, exercise caution, if the SPX / DOW reverses in the next 2 days, failed breakouts usually = wicked downside. There is still the last hour in the trading day, and usually I post charts at the end, but I've gotta get going. Hasta luego!
sniper
Active member
First day in almost a week where I have 3g reception and looks like the market is still going up. as much as I hated pulling money out of S during an uptrend, I knew it was the only way to enjoy my vacation. Congrats to all stilp making mone, cantwait to get back to some market action
- sniper from some bathroom stall in bend, Oregon
- sniper from some bathroom stall in bend, Oregon
RealMoneyIssues
Well-known member
First day in almost a week where I have 3g reception and looks like the market is still going up. as much as I hated pulling money out of S during an uptrend, I knew it was the only way to enjoy my vacation. Congrats to all stilp making mone, cantwait to get back to some market action
- sniper from some bathroom stall in bend, Oregon
I can tell from your typing you're on a smart phone touch screen... sometimes my wife's texts are hilarious from hers...
BTW, you give a new meaning to "sniping"...
sniper
Active member
Haha well there's no aiming required
Looks like I lost out on a big week! The charts were lining up for a huge buy signal, but I avoided stocks because I was on vacation during that time without any kind of internet access. Did I do the right thing? I know the risk involved with failed breakouts and so I figured I'd cut a profit and enjoy my vacay without wondering what the market would be doing when I'm in the boonies without internet access.
Basically getting back into G because of a vacation = move out of fear or the smart thing to do? On my stock positions I just put in stop losses, so my portfolio went up big (basically the entire thing is long positions in TNA, SPXL, UPRO), but damn the TSP for not having any sort of stop loss option.
Anyway this rally is looking like sky's the limit. I wouldn't be surprised if we could be seeing the Dow Jones over 14k again, hell we could even be seeing 15k. I'll take a closer look once I get some rest, back from the trip and I'm too tired to do charts :laugh: Though it looks like the cup & handle breakouts I charted on the dow & S&P held, and they are giving me some price targets that are looking to smash all-time highs
Looks like I lost out on a big week! The charts were lining up for a huge buy signal, but I avoided stocks because I was on vacation during that time without any kind of internet access. Did I do the right thing? I know the risk involved with failed breakouts and so I figured I'd cut a profit and enjoy my vacay without wondering what the market would be doing when I'm in the boonies without internet access.
Basically getting back into G because of a vacation = move out of fear or the smart thing to do? On my stock positions I just put in stop losses, so my portfolio went up big (basically the entire thing is long positions in TNA, SPXL, UPRO), but damn the TSP for not having any sort of stop loss option.
Anyway this rally is looking like sky's the limit. I wouldn't be surprised if we could be seeing the Dow Jones over 14k again, hell we could even be seeing 15k. I'll take a closer look once I get some rest, back from the trip and I'm too tired to do charts :laugh: Though it looks like the cup & handle breakouts I charted on the dow & S&P held, and they are giving me some price targets that are looking to smash all-time highs
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