sniper's Account Talk

[Sensei]

Awesome, which base? Schofield? I did 6 years in the AF, and always tried to get stationed at Hickam but could never get the assignment, so I got out and been working as a GS civilian ever since. Doing IT work for the Geological Survey now, liking life a lot better, Hawaii is awesome, especially if you're a surfer haha.

We recently spent close to a week in Honolulu on our way back to Okinawa, and dropped by Kaneohe MCBH. Wow, the homes on base are spectacular for base housing! Msgts have big single unit homes, and the officers have palacial estates overlooking the bay. If only HI had DOD schools, that would be the place for me!

 

[sniper]

We recently spent close to a week in Honolulu on our way back to Okinawa, and dropped by Kaneohe MCBH. Wow, the homes on base are spectacular for base housing! Msgts have big single unit homes, and the officers have palacial estates overlooking the bay. If only HI had DOD schools, that would be the place for me!

Totally, Kaneohe MCBH is probably nicest base I've ever been to. Great surf spots with limited access, uncrowded even on good days! Schools over there aren't so bad, just stay away from Waianae and Kalihi lol.

The one crappy thing about Hawaii is the cost of property, it's a tad high lol

 

[sniper]

Rising channel vs. LT resistance, round 1... ding!

Staying bullish, the 12-month S&P chart showed me a LT continuation pattern that has broken to the upside. I think it keeps going in positive territory for at least another month.

 

[sniper]

Round 1 goes to the bulls!

 

[sniper]

End of Week Analysis, Aug 13-17

Finally, some action on the market! The last 2 trading days of the week saw above average volume, gaining over 100 points over the last few days. Nothing I would call high volume, but it's a start, and investors are gaining confidence in this rally. The charts are starting to look a little interesting.

The DOW crept over the resistance line of 13,250, so next week is the confirmation whether this is a breakout or fakeout. I can't be 100% convinced of a breakout until the next pullback tests the new high as resistance, which will probably happen sometime this week.



The Transportation Average (IYT) is looking promising, showing a continuation pattern of an uptrend on this 9-month chart.



The VIX was the most interesting reading to me. A ST downward wedge may be an indicator that may move up (bearish for the S&P) in the near-term, but a longer term trend is showing a possible descending triangle. Can the VIX go even lower? Quite possibly.



Well, I predicted a big move was coming last week, but it didn't happen. This week though, the picture is clear with the forces in action, that something has to be coming soon. The DOW is at a critical resistance level, and in my opinion, this week is big for giving us an indicator which direction it is moving in. Keeping my position in C/S funds for the upcoming week!

In my current stock portfolio, I took a major hit from Marvell's earnings report. I could have settled for an 8-9% profit, instead risked holding through earnings, and ended up losing 10%, a 20% swing. Rookie mistake, was hoping for the homerun instead of taking a guaranteed winning play. Greed got the best of me this time, and hopefully I learned my lesson for good. On a brighter note, OCZ ripped to 5.26 in a matter of days. I put a stop loss of 5.05 in to lock at least 10% profits on this trade.



I could never make much sense of OCZ's graph, but these are just some notes for fun.

 

[sniper]

Looks like a pullback today. Major swing, looked like the breakout was for real, then BAM! the bears step in and swing it -100 (and counting) in the other direction.

Keeping my eye on this one, watching for it to possibly test the 20 day SMA next @ 13,100.

OCZ pick a few days earlier seems to be ignoring the market, it's got a mind of its own. Opened a short position on facebook yesterday out of spite because they forced the "Timeline" template on everyone. It's more a small, fun play than a technically sound one, but it's winning so far

 

[sniper]

Holy FFFFF, as i wrote this OCZ just ripped by 40 cents, what the hell is going on haha.

 

[bmneveu]

I've been considering a short position in facebook because of all the shares being made available in bunches over the next year or so. Wish I knew about that sooner!

 

[sniper]

I've been considering a short position in facebook because of all the shares being made available in bunches over the next year or so. Wish I knew about that sooner!

haha, i was actually thinking of shorting it at its IPO date, but I didn't have the guts at the time, would have been really profitable! I doubt the forced move to timeline will make that much more of a push down, if any. I may cover it soon and settle for 4-5%, it was just a gesture to say FU to facebook haha.

 

[sniper]

settled for a 3.5% gain on the FB short, that play was more for fun than anything. OCZ stopped out at 5.55, i'll take a 20% trade anytime

DOW meeting 20-day SMA, a little pullback was to be expected, still holding my C/S position

 

[sniper]

20-day SMA held tough today, let the bull market continue

 

[sniper]

bounced nicely off the 20-day, formed a hammer. may see a bounce upward tomorrow

 

[sniper]

Why I sold OCZ, went back to chart reading basics lol (not really, just saw it on stocktwits and thought it was hillarious)

 

[sniper]

With an over 100pt selloff, I was expecting volume to be much higher. if the volume ends lower than yesterday's, it might be a sign that the pullback is running out of steam



djind chart shows a possible cup & handle trying to form (i believe i was looking at the 9-month chart when spotting it)

still holding c/s, possible exit it 12,900 support fails. hopefully it doesn't come to that, though!

 

[sniper]

I gotta admit, this was a nice picture but lol. Anytime you see headlines like this you can guess the next day is gonna be green

 

[sniper]

This week was a bit of a pullback week, finishing negative from monday to Thursday, then finally a relief rally of 100 pts on Friday. TSP account had a loss of 0.65% for the week.

The DOW recently was riding a rising wedge, so I was expecting a short term pullback, but holding my position in the C/S funds, predicting that the longer term return from waiting it out till the end of the month would prevail. Time will tell if that call was the right one!



The breakdown of the rising wedge rebounded shortly after crossing the 20-day SMA, on a 100 point low-volume rally. While low volume rallies usually concern me, this one actually was a good move because it didn't put the DOW in an oversold condition, indicating that this rally still may have room to move upwards. The DOW Transportation Average (IYT) closed flat today though, which does raise a concern.



I have to admit, it's taking some discipline to stick with the system and not react on gut instinct or emotion. A year ago, I probably would have moved back to the G fund after a 100 point loss, and especially after reading doom & gloom headlines like this from CNN.com, believing everything I hear on the news. Instead, the new system has me react mainly based on chart trends, eliminating (as much as possible), trades made due to the human emotion factor.

Where will the market take us next week? Who knows. A fed report is expected next Friday, and there has been a lot of speculation whether this will be the QE3 investors have been waiting for. Rumors of it possibly happening soon likely caused the rally today, and it may continue until the 31st. Correct me if I'm wrong, but 'holding' your position on the 31st, is that a lot like holding a stock through it's earnings report? I may be a chicken on this one and take a defensive posture on thursday (50-60% position in stocks) if the rally is strong up until that point. Reason being, if there is a lot of optimism riding through next week, there is a much greater potential of disappointment, and a disappointing announcement by the Fed could turn the market ugly in a hurry.

As for now, I'm maintaining my position of C/S. Have a good weekend all!

 

[sniper]

crap i just caught a typo but it won't let me edit my post. meant to say overbought not oversold in 2nd paragraph.

 

[sniper]

Another look at that same DOW chart, the recent movement could have been a breakout test of an earlier ascending triangle pattern.

the last couple weeks I was so fixated on that LT 13,250 resistance line that this one flew under my nose

 

[sniper]

S&P is showing strength, DJIA lagging but holding the 20-day.

overall flat, these flat days do the most to test my patience, even more so than down days

 

[burrocrat]

these flat days do the most to test my patience, even more so than down days

be careful what you ask for.