Silverbird's Account Talk

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I'll take that vacation...just kidding Steady.


US SEC Probes Subprime, Builders, Hedge Funds
http://www.cnbc.com/id/29791210

Oh...really? Finally? Can the Tailors of the Emperor's "clothes" finally get their comeuppance?
They are going to need the industrial vac for this cleanup job, put on the hazmat suits.
 
May have been posted before now
http://www.crisisofcredit.com/
An easy to understand Video on the credit crisis.
I love how everyone gets stuck holding a lit bomb at the end (except the broker, though he's out of business cause he can serve any more real estate loans).
 
That's just the way the bull likes to play - be afraid. The bull only wants those loyal participants to benefit. The SPX current 200 day MA is at 1031 - the coast should be clear by then and the market will have rallied over 30%. That's not too much to leave on the table.
 
Shrug, I figure I have 15 years to go, but at the same time I'm the main breadwinner. So I nibble. Still waiting for some transparency in dervitives and CDOs before I toss in something bigger than a ping pong ball, stocks still do not reflect the actual worth of the firms.
 
You may have it backwards - stocks are way undervalued in comparison to the fundamental strength of the companies they represent. But of course - you may be correct. The key is to already have a great position sitting in the portfolio when the next bull move comes. In all cases the market rebounded in as nearly a dramatic fashion as it fell. The advance/decline is the ultimate technical tool as it measures - here and now - what people are actually doing with their money. Monday there was a 41 to 1 on the upside.
 
WASHINGTON - Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner asked Congress on Tuesday for broad new powers to regulate nonbank financial companies like troubled insurer American International Group whose collapse could jeopardize the economy....

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29849068/
;) [this could be what I've been waiting for....lets see if Congress has the guts and the powers have teeth.]
 
Well, I guess I'll keep out of C for a bit...Ohhh, *special* investment vehicles. So special! :rolleyes: Lights are good, but only after the roaches have run.

--------------------------------------
http://www.time.com/time/business/a...=t0:a16:g2:r2:c0.0373443:b23695538&xid=Loomia
Tempted to Buy Bank Stocks? Better Think Twice

"....The biggest bad surprise for investors in bank stocks, though, could come from pools of so-called shadow assets that have been following around these banks for years. In the earlier part of this decade, banks set up a number of financing arrangements called special investment vehicles or variable interest entities. These arrangements each had different functions, but they were generally known as special purpose entities and they had the effect of keeping certain loans off bank ledgers.

A recent change in accounting rules means that banks are going to have to bring those loans back on their books by the end of this year. The biggest fear is that banks will start recording losses from these loans that investors weren't expecting. There's a second problem related to shadow assets: Regulators say that banks must hold capital equal to at least 5% of their assets to be considered healthy. Citigroup, to take one example, has about $850 billion in special purpose entities. That means to reincorporate those assets by the end of this year, Citigroup will have to come up with $42 billion in new capital — money that will have to come from Uncle Sam, which could further dilute the value of Citi's shares.

"The change in the way banks have to account for these special purpose entities will mean great danger for their capital ratios," says corporate accounting expert Robert Willens...."
 
Silverbird said:
Well, I guess I'll keep out of C for a bit...Ohhh, *special* investment vehicles. So special! :rolleyes: Lights are good, but only after the roaches have run.

--------------------------------------
http://www.time.com/time/business/a...=t0:a16:g2:r2:c0.0373443:b23695538&xid=Loomia
Tempted to Buy Bank Stocks? Better Think Twice

"....The biggest bad surprise for investors in bank stocks, though, could come from pools of so-called shadow assets that have been following around these banks for years. In the earlier part of this decade, banks set up a number of financing arrangements called special investment vehicles or variable interest entities. These arrangements each had different functions, but they were generally known as special purpose entities and they had the effect of keeping certain loans off bank ledgers.

A recent change in accounting rules means that banks are going to have to bring those loans back on their books by the end of this year. The biggest fear is that banks will start recording losses from these loans that investors weren't expecting. There's a second problem related to shadow assets: Regulators say that banks must hold capital equal to at least 5% of their assets to be considered healthy. Citigroup, to take one example, has about $850 billion in special purpose entities. That means to reincorporate those assets by the end of this year, Citigroup will have to come up with $42 billion in new capital — money that will have to come from Uncle Sam, which could further dilute the value of Citi's shares.

"The change in the way banks have to account for these special purpose entities will mean great danger for their capital ratios," says corporate accounting expert Robert Willens...."
Click to expand...
I've done lots of looking at books and even forensic accounting of company books, but never for banks, and I didn't know about the shadow asset problem. You're absolutely correct that this could be a whole other stumbling block for the recovery process. Thanks for bringing this out. Maybe I'm going to lighten up on my bank stocks. And I won't be in C Fund by the end of the year! Over 13% of the S&P consists of bank stocks. Wow, I hope that S Fund holds up better, because our only other chance is I Fund, and I don't want to be hoping that the dollar tanks so that I Fund is strong! :sick:

Thanks again for spotlighting this issue. The more we look, the more moldy this situation gets. What a bunch of garbage! :mad:

Lady
 
Another nibble into S Tuesday. New contributions and loan payments only no change from 100% G IFT.

I still have some trust in business. Not so trusting of the financials yet.
 
WHooo HOOO finally!!! If finance gets rid of the fog quickly, the second half starts looking much better...

=======================================
Credit default swaps (CDS) are getting a long-overdue overhaul today.
If all goes well, CDS will have greater transparency, better pricing, and be fully collateralized. More needs to be done, but this is an important first step for an industry that is trying to clean up its (much-sullied) act.....

What's changed today: how the single name CDS will trade.
1) The pricing which is paid on a quarterly basis will be standardized. The upshot of all this is that the CDS will begin trading more like the underlying bonds of the companies, in the sense that there will be standard coupons.
2) From now on they will be cash settled in a single auction. The industry has agreed to hold an auction immediately after the "default event" which would determine the pricing of the underlying defaulting bonds.
This is a critical change, because in the past, you might have to wait until the bankruptcy was completed before you got your money. The creditors would argue with the company, and endless disputes occurred.
An immediate auction settles the matter quickly.
......


http://www.cnbc.com/id/30111304/site/14081545

Sheesh, this is important, do I have to accidently catch Kudlow to get this news???
Might even think about *buying* some of these, now that the risk and gain are a lot clearer.
 
Nibble nibble, another little bit of paycheck into S cause the stock market wonkin' cause it feels achy and thinks it MAY have the flu, cmon, that's silly, CDC is just doing what its supposed to do. Goes into effect tommorow, I expect the market to still be checking its thermometer. :rolleyes:

No C, I trust business further than finance. The IFT's still in G -- we're still in the doldrums.
 
Dither dither, wasn't sure if I wanted to keep my new contributions in S, need to do some work....
Oh, look what time it is...I guess my new contributions are :embarrest: 100% S.
 
the dollar will tank

XL-entLady said:
I've done lots of looking at books and even forensic accounting of company books, but never for banks, and I didn't know about the shadow asset problem. You're absolutely correct that this could be a whole other stumbling block for the recovery process. Thanks for bringing this out. Maybe I'm going to lighten up on my bank stocks. And I won't be in C Fund by the end of the year! Over 13% of the S&P consists of bank stocks. Wow, I hope that S Fund holds up better, because our only other chance is I Fund, and I don't want to be hoping that the dollar tanks so that I Fund is strong! :sick:

Thanks again for spotlighting this issue. The more we look, the more moldy this situation gets. What a bunch of garbage! :mad:

Lady
Click to expand...


Count on it, the 10yr treasery is on the move up to entice buyers..over a point, over last year at this time, decupaling by other countrys will leave us as a beach warmer not a player in coming/next world econmey. dont worry your/are China overloards speak english so will all understand are housekeeping duties or are kids will:sick:
 
Bah. Maid Services do NOT do well in China. They do well in places like Saudi Arabia, where you have a lesuire class with lots of money, and the belief that certain jobs are below their station. What we need to watch from China right now is shoddy, desperately manufactured goods. Electronics industries are reporting increases in counterfeit and "pulled" (pulled off of old boards and soldered onto new boards) components. Although it appears some manufacturing is coming back to the U.S. due to the decrease in quality control :cool: the lack of a base to come back to is a huge hurdle to bringing it here.

What do we have to fear? No jobs, consumers here have no money, no manufacturing to export, overseas savings but not spending, and stuff on the store shelves built overseas with no products standard from materials that fell off the truck. These are my fears, not the Chinese trying to make us into their personal domestic services labor force (or the Saudi's for that matter), at least that's a JOB.
 
Silverbird said:
Bah. Maid Services do NOT do well in China. They do well in places like Saudi Arabia, where you have a lesuire class with lots of money, and the belief that certain jobs are below their station. What we need to watch from China right now is shoddy, desperately manufactured goods. Electronics industries are reporting increases in counterfeit and "pulled" (pulled off of old boards and soldered onto new boards) components. Although it appears some manufacturing is coming back to the U.S. due to the decrease in quality control :cool: the lack of a base to come back to is a huge hurdle to bringing it here.

What do we have to fear? No jobs, consumers here have no money, no manufacturing to export, overseas savings but not spending, and stuff on the store shelves built overseas with no products standard from materials that fell off the truck. These are my fears, not the Chinese trying to make us into their personal domestic services labor force (or the Saudi's for that matter), at least that's a JOB.
Click to expand...

Thanks Silverbird,

I really enjoy your little look inside your world that we're allowed to see. It really helps gettin the real poop, especially when you hear so much cheerleading on TV.

CB
 
Ok, I'm putting in a little more nest material before I get too used to the stimulus increase in my biweekly pay. Contribution increase from 5 to 6 percent. Trying to get closer to my goal of an average 7 percent a year past the 5 percent for matching.

Yes, I know, I'm supposed to spend it.:toung: But it's only part of the increase, and I like a well-lined nest. Especially lined with *tax deffered*.
 
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