Show-me Account Talk

[Show-me]

The Week Ahead

Last Update: 31-Jul-08 15:41 ET

The big item next week is the FOMC policy announcement, slated for Aug. 5 at 2:15 ET. It is widely expected that the fed funds rate will remain unchanged at 2.00%, which leaves the policy directive as the main point of interest.

The Earnings Calendar is packed with more than 700 companies, although most are smaller names. Some of the larger firms include Archer Daniels Midland (ADM), Cisco Systems (CSCO) and Procter & Gamble (PG).

Market participants will get some insight into the state of the U.S. economy with the release on Monday of the personal income and spending report for June, and the ISM services report for July, released on Tuesday. Take a look at Briefing.com's Economic Calendar for more information.
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Monday, August 4:

• Earnings: Dish Network (DISH), Humana (HUM), Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), Anadarko Petroleum (APC)
• Economic Data: Personal Income and Spending (June)... Factory Orders (June)
• Events: None
• Conferences: IBC Life Sciences Drug Discovery & Development of Innovative Therapeutics Conference... Pacific Crest Securities Tech Conference... Marcus Evans Management for Power Plants Conference
• Fed Speakers: None

Tuesday, August 5:

• Earnings: Archer Daniels Midland (ADM), Charter Communications (CHTR), Duke Energy (DUK), MGM Mirage (MGM), Molson Coors Brewing (TAP), Procter & Gamble (PG), Cisco Systems (CSCO), Computer Sciences (CSC), News Corp (NWS.A), Whole Foods (WFMI)
• Economic Data: ISM Services (July)
• Events: FOMC Policy Statement (2:15 ET)
• Conferences: BMO Capital Markets Focus on Healthcare Conference... IBC Life Sciences Drug Discovery & Development of Innovative Therapeutics Conference... Pacific Crest Securities Tech Conference
• Fed Speakers: None

Wednesday, August 6:

• Earnings: Blackstone (BX), Dean Foods (DF), Freddie Mac (FRE), Marsh McLennan (MMC), PG&E (PCG), Qwest (Q), Sprint Nextel (S), Time Warner (TWX), Transocean (RIG), AIG (AIG), Companhia Vale Do Rio (RIO)
• Economic Data: Consumer Credit (June)
• Events: American Express Semiannual Analyst Meeting... Weekly Crude Inventories (week ended Aug. 2)
• Conferences: RBC Capital Markets 2008 Technology, Media & Communications Conference... BMO Capital Markets Focus on Healthcare Conference... IBC Life Sciences Drug Discovery & Development of Innovative Therapeutics Conference
• Fed Speakers: None

Thursday, August 7:

• Earnings: Cardinal Health (CAH), Con Edison (ED), DirecTV (DTV), Williams (WMB)
• Economic Data: Pending Home Sales (June)... Weekly Jobless Claims (week ended Aug. 2)
• Events: None
• Conferences: Banc of America Securities Specialty Pharmaceuticals Conference... RBC Capital Markets 2008 Technology, Media & Communications Conference
• Fed Speakers: None

Friday, August 8:

• Earnings: Edison International (EIX), Windstream (WIN)
• Economic Data: Preliminary Productivity (Q2)... Wholesale Inventories (June)
• Events: None
• Conferences: Banc of America Securities Specialty Pharmaceuticals Conference
• Fed Speakers: None

--Ryan McShane, Briefing.com

 

[Show-me]

Dish Network and DirectTV will tell how the consumer is doing.

 

[Show-me]

My quick two cents. I see a very short term double top in the spy, sso, and uyg. I see skf and sds at support with the same double only double bottoms, as you should a inverse fund.

Personal view is that bank ain't out of the wood yet. Small bank in FL took over by FDIC. Not much press on that one. Jim Cramer calls the bottom..............what a idiot. Consumer is still strapped for cash and is what fuels our economy.

Earnings season spins the best out of the market then whack back down we go. Fed speaks, storm in gulf, election, etc.

So as my personal quick favorites for the week I like SKF, SDS, ACI, SLV, and SU. Where protection it can get ugly out there. STOPS!

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SKF&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p26694867262

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SDS&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p26694867262

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ACI&p=W&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p02164336979

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p26694867262

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SU&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p26694867262

 

[Corepuncher]

Consumer is still strapped for cash and is what fuels our economy.

Earnings season spins the best out of the market then whack back down we go. Fed speaks, storm in gulf, election, etc.

I can't disagree, except I think the strapped consumer will not be seen until all these rebate checks are done being spent. Same with gas prices, people can just put it on thier credit cards for now. Worry about it later. All this seems like it should take some time to play out. Therefore, if we do rally soon, it could be a slow death. I'm predicting October for some more fireworks. For now, I'll go all in on stocks with my remaining 30% if we can hit < 1240.

 

[Show-me]

I forgot to change my signature but the tracker is correct. Signature is correct now.

 

[Show-me]

Roth: Limit order ACI @ $46.75 and CCJ @ $31.20 Probably will not get filled buy why not low ball the market every now and then. Both are at or below the 200 dma and due a bounce.

 

[Show-me]

Roth ACI 46.75 CCJ 31.86

 

[Show-me]

McCain Calls to Build 45 Nuclear Plants


McCain Attacks Obama's Energy Policy to Sway Key Voters

By RON CLAIBORNE

Aug. 5, 2008—

After dueling for days with Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., over whether to allow offshore oil drilling and how much to inflate tires, Sen. John McCain today turned the discussion nuclear.
The Arizona Republican toured the 20-year-old Enrico Fermi Nuclear Plant near Detroit today in a campaign effort to portray himself as an energy problem solver. McCain used the visit to the plant to highlight his call to build dozens of new atomic power plants in the United States and to distinguish himself from his likely Democratic opponent.
"I proposed a plan to build 45 new nuclear plants before the year 2030. And that would provide 700,000 jobs for American workers," McCain told the crowd of reporters that gathered at the plant.
McCain said he believes nuclear power is a viable way to produce electricity and decrease America's reliance on foreign oil. Some experts agree.
"The 40 or so power plants are consistent with some of our analysis and what would be required to the next 20 to 30 years to provide electricity at a reasonable cost," said Chris Larsen of the Electric Power Research Institute.
McCain accused Obama of opposing expanding the use of nuclear power.
"Sen. Obama has said that expanding our nuclear power plants 'doesn't make sense for America,'" McCain said. "He also says no to nuclear storage and no to reprocessing. I could not disagree more."
However, Obama does not completely oppose more nuclear power plants. Instead, he favors going forward only at a time when it's proven that it can be done safely. McCain said that the time is now.

http://www.abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/story?id=5518964&page=1

 

[Show-me]

Crazy talk, while I own CCJ and ACI. Crazy!

 

[Birchtree]

Arch Coal placed an intraday low today of $45.61 down $2.90 before a little turn around.

 

[Show-me]

I'm not a believer yet. Triple top on the S&P. I will wait. It is interesting that the 20 dma is providing a conduit for the S&P to ride on.

 

[ebbnflow]

Roth: Limit order ACI @ $46.75 and CCJ @ $31.20 Probably will not get filled buy why not low ball the market every now and then. Both are at or below the 200 dma and due a bounce.

Hi Show-Me! I got curious because I remember shorting Arch Coal (ACI) way back on July 25. I got the idea of using a spreadsheet program to track individual stocks and see how it did everyday with each of the ebbchart patterns. Anyway, I checked and dug up the chart I posted on my webpage. Here it was:

Sorry for the late warning. The chart shows that ACI had a change of trend in 2008 and lost -12.38% with pattern 5 on tap. Shorting this stock would have been great. ACI was -3.32% and CENX (might as well put it up) was -5.12% for the day.

I didn't short any of these stocks again, but I did short one stock -- Anadarko Petroleum (-1.92%) and went with five other stocks long. Glad to see you doing well with your Roth.

-- ebb

 

[Show-me]

Arch Coal placed an intraday low today of $45.61 down $2.90 before a little turn around.

I got it at $46.75 and need that big coal rally/bounce. Seasonality is working against me but from the chart analysis sez it is due a bounce. I hope that bounce was not yesterdays intraday move.:worried:

 

[Show-me]

Hi Show-Me! I got curious because I remember shorting Arch Coal (ACI) way back on July 25. I got the idea of using a spreadsheet program to track individual stocks and see how it did everyday with each of the ebbchart patterns. Anyway, I checked and dug up the chart I posted on my webpage. Here it was:

Sorry for the late warning. The chart shows that ACI had a change of trend in 2008 and lost -12.38% with pattern 5 on tap. Shorting this stock would have been great. ACI was -3.32% and CENX (might as well put it up) was -5.12% for the day.

I didn't short any of these stocks again, but I did short one stock -- Anadarko Petroleum (-1.92%) and went with five other stocks long. Glad to see you doing well with your Roth.

-- ebb

Thanks, Ebb!

I do not plan to hold very long. I am just going of off the chart analysis that it is due a bounce and then I'm out. Coal stock tend to due bad this time of year.

 

[Show-me]

Roth: SOLD ACI 50.0901

 

[luv2read]

nice profit.

 

[anthony]

On the topic of coal ... I bought WLT last year at $27/share. After it went to ~$115 I planned to make my exit, but it's been on a rollercoaster ever since, oscillating between $85 and <$110.

So, unfortunately each time it dips I hold on and then place a limit order on the high end. Just hasn't hit my LO yet.

So, why do coal stocks tend to do poorly this time of year? Not as much need for coal in the summer for electricity generation?

 

[Show-me]

nice profit.

Thanks luv2read!

 

[Show-me]

On the topic of coal ... I bought WLT last year at $27/share. After it went to ~$115 I planned to make my exit, but it's been on a rollercoaster ever since, oscillating between $85 and <$110.

So, unfortunately each time it dips I hold on and then place a limit order on the high end. Just hasn't hit my LO yet.

So, why do coal stocks tend to do poorly this time of year? Not as much need for coal in the summer for electricity generation?

Hi anthony,

Your close but not in sync. The big demand is in the summer. Coal runs up before summer on speculation of electricity demand during the cooling season, hot weather plus air conditioning. It dips during cooling season because of speculation of less demand for the coming fall.

Just remember all of the news stories about the power grid going down because of peak demand in the summer. The trick is to board the coal train before the news is reporting about peak demand of electricity.

 

[Show-me]

Roth: cash

Love that compounding effect, up 52.9% YTD in the Roth. I really need to stop trading individual stocks as the risk is tremendous compared to a ETF. One bad piece of news on a individual stock could wipe you out.