Show-me Account Talk

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I just had that happen with ELN (Elan) going from $35 down to $10 so of course I bought more at the lower prices to even out my break even point. With 295 individual stock positions I'm bound to hit a looser occasionally. Sold off my GW (Grey Wolf) to double down and buy the Elan.
 
heehee Had to come over here cuz it was a little hot in the Birch thread, damn politics. That's OK, I still luv ya (like a brother) even when ya don't feel like fight'n. LOL

BTW, not to rub salt in your wounds, but you and I are screwed no matter what. Who ever is next, will HAVE to raise taxes. That's one position I would long, long term.

See ya I got to go plant some very large trees in my yard.;) ya
 
Great timing.

I was actually wanting to bring up this segment about the risk vs reward.
I thought it was a great point for those not currently invested to ponder,
before jumping in.
 
The IFT limit really screws with us as far as calculating risk/reward! It could be so much easier.

So what it really boils down to is your time horizon and risk tolerance.

For me, I want to play the intermediate term moves on the scale of weeks and months. If I had unlimited IFT's, I would have sold maybe 50% of my stocks today in hopes that we would test the 1260's within the next few days where I could buy again. Instead, I made myself sit tight because I have to think ahead to 3 weeks from now. I think that somewhere in there, we will have another 2-3 day rally that will push us into my target 1320 range, at which time I will move a sizable portion of my balance into the G fund. I must admit, the charts over the past couple weeks look bullish indeed, but then you have that giant downturn from May to July staring you in the face every time you look at a chart and moving average.

Here are the targets for upside in this rally I have heard over the past few days. I heard 1320, a couple 1350's, and a 1380. I heard someone say 4-6% more, and another 7-8% more = 1330-1380. My preliminary target was always 1320, so on the "low" side of all those estimates. You also have the P&F charts showing a 7% gain to 1380.

My guess will be a closing high of 1360. Doesn't look like the 200 day SMA is gonna get much above 1380...and no way we pierce that, IMO. There is a possibility that the 20 SMA will cross over the 50 SMA, because the 50 goes way back into that rally and it will be moving down for quiet a while. We may get an extra leg up after the 20/50 crossover, if it does indeed happen.
 
Tom has set forth charts and indicators which reflect uncertainty as to whether we have really reached the bottom. If we get an upside in an ascending triangle, and then a pull-back, we might be better off by holding still, instead of going to G and not being able to buy until September. We might be better riding this out, considering that oil has dropped to manageable levels and the USD has strengthened a bit. Moreover, the histeria over the China Olympics could offer a positive upside scenario. All of this is speculation and the consideration of possibilities. Liquidity, optimism, and positive emotions might rule at this time!
 
Futures took a turn on Walmart. Oscar vid - Rule: "See a double top, sell a double top." "Top, top, drop."

 
Show, I love Oscar. He's like a guy from the old neighborhood.
Double Top, Ascending Triangle, Head&shoulder Patterns !
Which way to turn ! Conflicting messages throughout the
entire bunch. Whats your thoughts, if you have a minute ? :confused:
 
squalebear said:
Show, I love Oscar. He's like a guy from the old neighborhood.
Double Top, Ascending Triangle, Head&shoulder Patterns !
Which way to turn ! Conflicting messages throughout the
entire bunch. Whats your thoughts, if you have a minute ? :confused:
Click to expand...

I still think his larger head and shoulders pattern is a very poor likeness of one!

Top top drop? I see Top, Top, Top, and lower drops, drops, drops.:cheesy:
 
You know I love the ol Omni guy and all, but everytime that guys sees a chart, he sees a head and shoulders. He probably sees them in the clouds too. :toung:

But seriously I do have to say one thing about the guy. He's one of the few who post videos BEFORE the market opens. So kudos to him because most everyone else post videos after the market closes.
 
squalebear said:
Show, I love Oscar. He's like a guy from the old neighborhood.
Double Top, Ascending Triangle, Head&shoulder Patterns !
Which way to turn ! Conflicting messages throughout the
entire bunch. Whats your thoughts, if you have a minute ? :confused:
Click to expand...

Most of the folks I follow are short term anything goes, intermediate and long term bearish. They are playing the short term bear market rallies.
 
Corepuncher said:
I still think his larger head and shoulders pattern is a very poor likeness of one!

Top top drop? I see Top, Top, Top, and lower drops, drops, drops.:cheesy:
Click to expand...

Corepuncher,

I see the triple top too. I will post a S&P cart the shows the H&S better. Different views of charts reveal different things to me.
 
JTH said:
You know I love the ol Omni guy and all, but everytime that guys sees a chart, he sees a head and shoulders. He probably sees them in the clouds too. :toung:

But seriously I do have to say one thing about the guy. He's one of the few who post videos BEFORE the market opens. So kudos to him because most everyone else post videos after the market closes.
Click to expand...

I will post a good chart.
 
I know this is of topic of TSP but I can't help it. They torpedoed my TSP and I have to have a way to make money. Stop me if you can't take it.:nuts:


OK, here is a chart I like for a buy. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p92031831321 What do you guys think? I see a beautiful seasonal chart that this ETF dips below the 200 dma for a month to two months around the same period of the year, July, Aug, Sept.. It then rallies to the end of the year 50% to 100% gain from bottom to top, roughly. It also correlated with the US dollar index which is up above the 200 dma.

To me it is way early but with the USD index above the 200 dma and silver below the 200 dma that combination makes for a high probability intermediate trade over the next few months. Set it and forget it.

Our financials are severely broken and Meridith Whitney had alot to say after the American Express meeting. Also the ARM loan with the introductory teasers will start showing up next year. BIG LOAN DEFAULTS TO COME WITH THOSE. :sick: Read the WSJ. Fannie and Freddie hold a ton of those **** loans and there is now way the tax payer can bail them out. States are sue bank about the frozen investment, auction securities. Big fines and big buy backs mean less capital to put to work and the need to raise more capital from investors. http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080807/citigroup_investigation.html

So I see the dollar falling and silver rising. Silver has lagged gold for a long time too. Tell me what you think.
 
Show-me, I track SLV and agree with your outlook for it. I think it will need another month to find a bottom and base out before heading up. Prechter feels gold can go down to $600 so SLV could go quite a bit lower. Depends on oil and the US$. I think oil can move lower here maybe to $100?, dollar can move up.
Have been making money with USD and DUG in my IRA. I really like USD which looks to have very good upside potential. I started buying it around 42 and plan to buy more on the dips. DUG can move higher if oil keeps falling so it still has potential. Here's14U.:)
 
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