Show-me Account Talk

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Show-me said:
Ok I decided to chase the I fund.
Click to expand...

For once I feel good about my decision. I hope to rotate into U.S. equities unless they rocket up again tomorrow. I am somewhat disappointed that I do not have the stomach for risk that I had last year. If I would have thrown caution to the wind I would have done quite a bit better.

On a personal note, I had a epiphany tonight. Not only am I bearish I must be a professional cynic. So use extreme caution when visiting here, it will get deep at times.
 
I will add that it does look like a resistance point. Thursday I will IFT out. No 3 day weekend in limbo for me. I may peel some off today.

One thing the did catch my attention yesterday was the hurricane prediction of 17 named storm. I think last year was indeed a fluke and we will pay the piper this year. Got OIL!
 
I read recently that an unusual number of dust storms in the Sahara last year reduced the number of hurricanes. Dust in the atmosphere over the Atlantic cooled the water. Consequently, last year could have been a fluke.:(
 
Let's hope this season is benign!

rokid said:
I read recently that an unusual number of dust storms in the Sahara last year reduced the number of hurricanes. Dust in the atmosphere over the Atlantic cooled the water. Consequently, last year could have been a fluke.:(
Click to expand...
 
Oooooookay now! Temperatures have went from upper seventies to the lower forties for daytime highs. Lows have went form fifties to lower twenties. My peach, pear, and apple trees are all in bloom. Say goodbye to the cruel world little blossoms.:(
 
FundSurfer
Here is an example!
Substitute [ for (open bracket) and ] for (close bracket).
(open bracket)URL="http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?p=87773#post87773"]Spaf's Account[/URL(close bracket)
 
Cynic at large. Jobs report spin!

Disclaimer: You better not come here if you were looking for a warm fuzzy comment. You have been warned.

Here is how I feel. They will probably be revised down next month. Talking heads were spinning this hard this morning. No number would have been bearish to the talking heads.

They went as far as to show a chart of the past six or so Good Fridays when jobs numbers came out. One had the following Monday up over 100 points on the Dow and those "jobs numbers" came in below expectation all other were down days. The spin was that was a fluke, different scenario, blah, blah, blah. This time its different. O'wait, chance of a rate cut just went out the window, but that's OK now because ........................we need to spin the other way.

Here is one of the video links for CNBC. I could not get it to work. Huh, curious!
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=243817821&play=1

Inflation is the key and inflation is rising. Those guys were all over the board trying to spin this to a bullish sentiment. LOL

"Employment increased in construction, retail trade, and health care. Average hourly earnings rose by 6 cents, or 0.3 percent, over the month." http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

Table B-1 on page 17 of the report tells a different tail. Course, I'm a cynic. Look at the Residential Building, Manufacturing, Production Workers, and anything after Durable Goods. All loosing jobs. Only areas gaining jobs are energy/mining (surprise), retail (seasonal for spring), health care (boomer's), and nonresidential building/heavy construction.

To me it looks like housing is still weak and is being felt all the way down. Clark Howard was on this week claiming it is the best time to be a rental landlord. Now is your time, rent is on the rise and more people will not be able to buy because of the tightening of the sub-prime standards. Rent is a CPI component and has been one of the biggest gainers after energy and food.

Manufacturing base is declining fast. I live in NE Missouri and an auto parts maker announced it will be closing its doors this fall due to the US auto market problems. Last fall they sent 120 jobs to Mexico.

Oil will continue to rise as demand keeps going up and our refineries are strained now. Major oil field production is declining. See Cantarell oil field.

Fruit, nut, and vine crops will take a beating this year with the freeze and the pollination problems with the Honey Bees. All protein foods will rise due to corn prices and ethanol.

Enough moaning for one night.
 
Re: Cynic at large. Jobs report spin!

Show-me said:
Here is how I feel..............
Click to expand...

Well that explains that...and the 50G, 50F!................:D

I kind of grade the market in degree of risk. An established trend up is fairly low risk. A trading range would be moderate risk. A volatile trend like we have now is fairly high risk. Making advances on low volume gets me suspicious...:suspicious:

Oil is very high, we know what it can do to the market!

Since TSP Timing is published in the tally, it's not to hard to see that Rev. Shark is being very cautious.

In Spaf math: The L2020 fund matches the Total US Market returns (#64 on rokids Tally). In Demographics 58% of us are over age 46. Thus to go higher than 65% stocks, places the majority above the mid risk level, in a moderate risk market. In a high risk market the percentage gets reduced. Thats the reasons I see the cautions.

See ya at the pad!

Frog.gif


Rgds!
Spaf
 
All I can say is remember this is a recognition wave where 3rd waves are when the majority throw in the towel as they discover that the trend is undeniable, especially in the face of all the bad news. There hasn't been a move below the MCSUM zero line now since last August. We've been in an accelerated uptrend now for the better part of nine months, you have to go back to the 1950's to possibly see such action and the 1950's was an Elliott third wave for much of the decade. Of course you won't agree, but with the NYAD and RA (ratio adjusted) NYAD now taking out the high points of that same advance higher (1959), Elliott methodology suggests that this is a degree higher (stronger) third wave than that of the 1950's. Hold your towel along with many others - I'll be watching for the moment. Until then fundamentals and technicals will not work - this is a liquidity driven market.

Dennis - permabull #1
 
Looks like there is no stopping this rally DOW is in M&A, Buffet bought 10% stake in BNI, and oil is falling. Gas is rising due to winter to summer switch over. If oil continues down I will be buying some oil stock for the summer driving/storm season. One thing is that demand continues to go up and production is leveling off or declining in some of the largest fields.

Going to the I fund for one day for now.

I hate the F fund.
 
The I fund is the only chart to have broken out to new highs. The top of the trend channel looks to be about 80 on the EFA. Thats about 2% or so. I'm tempted to play the I also. But, I'm also worried that a short term pullback may happen. Markets are overbought. What is your reason to go into I fund?
 
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