Show-me Account Talk

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At this point I have to say the trend is your friend. I have really struggled YTD due to my emotions about the state of the market I see weakness in the market, but the market has shrugged it off and rallied. Sooooo, time to get with it.

STA is bearish tomorrow so I will IFT tomorrow into equities. C and S fund are the most likely funds I will buy. I fund is scaring me a bit because of the USD. USD has taken a sever beating and needs a rest. On the other side of it is the fact that a rally in the USD plus a weak day in OSM might make a nice buying opportunity to hold.

Some ED out this week consumer confidence and existing home sales Tuesday. Durable goods and new home sales Wednesday.

Still holding my SLV and finally bought my USO below $50. Now oil can go down. LOL :D

Good luck and good trading.
 
Now if this isn't step'n into it, I don't know what is. LOL Make or break Wednesday. NEW home sales and durable goods. Read a piece about durable goods that said the would be higher due to aircraft sales. Not very good news for housing.

Early to work today. Good morning, good luck, and see ya!
 
The beige book could be a bucket of cold water on what looks to be a fairly hot day. I'm expecting dow 13K today, but the euphoria to be short lived. The rest of the week is going to be the battle between inflation and earnings. Even if the numbers come in on target on Friday, your looking at low GDP and high inflation. Monday's reports have the making for the second hit of a one/two punch for the bears. I probably will go penny pinching this week - probably COB today, if today has an explosive morning.

Show-me said:
Now if this isn't step'n into it, I don't know what is. LOL Make or break Wednesday. NEW home sales and durable goods. Read a piece about durable goods that said the would be higher due to aircraft sales. Not very good news for housing.

Early to work today. Good morning, good luck, and see ya!
Click to expand...
 
Hi Griffin,

Busy day and I am getting my second wind.

I could not take it, but I left some seed money in the S fund. My plan was to rotate to the I fund, but +FV had me concerned. I keep telling myself "capital preservation". LOL I'm almost dead last on the tally.:rolleyes: So as of now I am 75/25 G/S. I stayed with my S fund because it has been lagging a bit.

High inflation is still a great concern as is slowing growth. The "core inflation" debate is difficult. The FED and the market like to reference "core inflation" number as a base line, but the fact is we have to pay for the full meal deal. Energy and food are two of our biggest expenditures as consumers. Now PCE inflation is another story.

My feeling is that OIL will climb again. Can't get the "supply and demand" thing out of my head. India and China growth. More demand and production (supply) slowing on major oil fields. Oil has to be a winner in the future along with food and fresh water.

I am not thinking like a market trader this year. My emotions are tired up in the high inflation, sub-prime, and moderating growth data. There will be time for those things after the market tops. I needed to be thinking about earnings, momentum, and the trend until the trend changes.

I guess I torn. Gotta go! On the run again.
 
Hello Show Me and Griffin:

Just a note that I'm not making stellar advances in my TSP account this year either (Up 1.38% whoppee). I have been very bearish since the beating I took on Feb 27th. So now, capital preservation is the main goal, and making a reasonable return is goal 2.

Relative to the economy, I remain concerned about the a stronger Yen, inflation (core or otherwise), GDP, the fall from grace of the American automotive industry, and our illustrious housing market. I'm actually also concerned about what appears to be troublesome weather patterns that appear to be impacting productivity and supply. On the international front, I remain concerned about Iran, Al-Queda, and the continuing drain of Iraq on our economy.

I keep looking for good news here at home, new industrial investment, new technologies, but there doesn't seem to be alot of exciting high tech out there, except maybe in the alternative energy sector. China, the Asian and European economies seem to be a better strategic position currently. In a nutshell, things are out of balance from my humble perspective. That's why I'm sitting 87G, 10F, and 1C,1S,1I. I'm not seeing the leadership or action to regain American prominence. This is very concerning. And then there's the market which is making no sense to me these days...Gee whiz..

FS
 
The market is omipotent and can see 12 months into the future - you better start DCAing in or you'll be behind the next eighteen months. Capital appreciation is paramount - forget capital preservation for awhile. Just my humble opinion. Snort.
 
Birchtree said:
The market is omipotent and can see 12 months into the future - you better start DCAing in or you'll be behind the next eighteen months. Capital appreciation is paramount - forget capital preservation for awhile. Just my humble opinion. Snort.
Click to expand...

Birch,

You may be correct, but I can't sit still like you. Look at it this way......you need guys like me so you can make money when I take a beating. :nuts:
 
Watch for the English to show up this summer to view the golden arches to the western frontier. The Chinese will be close behind them as well.
 
Well.....yea, look at that exchange rate. Bring'em on, we need those Sterlings and Won to fuel the service sector. We got noth'n in manufacturing.
 
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I'm glad I went against my emotions and left some seed in the S fund. I expressed some concern about the USD being oversold in post #82 and it looks like it is trying to make a little run this morning. It may not be substantial, but it will dilute the I fund gains.

I'm not sure what to do from here.

Good morning, good luck, and have a nice day! :D
 
I would offer my prescient suggestion that you find the courage to get on the train - it's leaving the station. You don't want to miss the next 1000 points - could be detrimental to your bottom line if you swim against this tide. If a correction comes along I'll absorb the beating and take opportunity of once again lower prices, but I'm not waiting around for the downside that may not come. I've got a 10% insurance policy sitting in the I fund in case we get another blind side. I still think Feb-March was a V bottom. Snort.
 
Birchtree said:
I would offer my prescient suggestion that you find the courage to get on the train - it's leaving the station. You don't want to miss the next 1000 points - could be detrimental to your bottom line if you swim against this tide. If a correction comes along I'll absorb the beating and take opportunity of once again lower prices, but I'm not waiting around for the downside that may not come. I've got a 10% insurance policy sitting in the I fund in case we get another blind side. I still think Feb-March was a V bottom. Snort.
Click to expand...

How did I know you were going to say that. :toung: ;) :D
 
Monday is going to be a big day. With GDP at 1.3%, the markets on a bull run and it being the end of the month I don't think we will see a huge decline today. More like everyone will be holding their breath for Mondays data.

Data is slowly showing the real picture.
 
Hello:

First, thanks for your advice and pointers. I get it that I'd better do "something" to preserve my capital and grow it.

Being a retired fed I thought I knew a lot of acronyms. but I've continued to learn new ones every day since I've joined TSPTalk :worried: ...I hear such mental antics are good for the synapses..but please enlighten me..What does "DCAing" mean?:confused: The best I can come with is "Distributed Cash Allocation".:rolleyes:

Remember the old adage, there are no stupid questions, there are only stupid people asking questions..

Be Gentle..:D

FS
 
No problem. DCA is Dollar Cost Averaging. Long term when you buy at a regular time interval (like every pay day) you get the advantage of averaging the cost of the share price on the way up and down.
 
Here is the web dictionary version.

Investing a set amount of money, at regular intervals, over a long period of time. The investor could gain an advantage from rises and falls in the investment prices over a period of time by buying more when the price is low and less when the price is high.

 
Thanks Show Me. I also appreciate SPAF's thoughts on this. When I began this discussion, Birchtree offered the following advice:

The market is omipotent and can see 12 months into the future - you better start DCAing in or you'll be behind the next eighteen months.

OK, I now understand the concept of DCAing (thank you). But if I accept the idea that the market can see 12 months into the future, it can mean only one of three things (a) the game is totally rigged and we all follow Birchtree (since he knows the people to know or at least the information to know) or (b) the game is substantially rigged (that I can get a handle on), or (c) Birchtree was just making a emotional plea to one of the uncoverted.

Until this correction gets resolved, I sticking with (c). Just call me a "stick in the mud" with feeble gains in 07 but I'm going to wait through May to see if this correction occurs, and then jump in when prices are down..I hope that works..but I've been wrong on this since I retired in November.

My thanks to you all for your advice and comraderie.

FS
 
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