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Food inflation.

Food inflation.........

"Costs have surged for fuel and petroleum-based products and for the corn used to feed dairy cows, a side effect of increases in the production of ethanol."

Milk Prices Expected to Rise 9 Percent
Friday March 30, 4:06 am ET
By Genaro C. Armas, Associated Press Writer With Dairy Farmers Feeling the Pinch, Consumers Expected to Pay More for Milk This Fall

STATE COLLEGE, Pa. (AP) -- Celesta Powell buys four gallons of milk every week for her four children, and even with milk prices expected to rise, she says she has no plans to cut back.
"You can't look at cutting your kids back on milk," she said after loading several bottles of milk from Meyer Dairy store into her minivan recently. "What are you going to give them, soda?"
Dairy economists predict the retail price of milk could rise as much as 30 cents per gallon -- a 9 percent jump -- by fall. The reasons include rising fuel and feed costs for farmers and increasing demand for milk products around the globe.
The average retail price of whole milk could rise to $3.35 per gallon by October, up from $3.07 in January, said Ken Bailey, an agricultural economist at Penn State University who specializes in the dairy industry.
A U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast also predicts an increase in the price that processors pay to farmers for raw milk. That is typically an indicator that the retail price of milk also will rise.
Yet seesawing milk prices seem to have little effect on the buying habits of consumers like Powell, who has a growing 6-year-old.
When the average price of milk rose 19 percent in the spring of 2004, milk purchases declined less than 4 percent, said Stephanie Smith, a Denver-based nutritionist and spokeswoman with the National Dairy Council.
 
Re: Food inflation.

Show-me said:
"You can't look at cutting your kids back on milk," she said after loading several bottles of milk from Meyer Dairy store into her minivan recently. "What are you going to give them, soda?"
Click to expand...

Im glad that she is taking this position. I read an article recently where this trade is being made--in part because soda is cheaper. Anyone see the movie Idiocracy?
 
Mine get milk or water. Anything else and it's a race to see who can drink the last one.
 
Re: Food inflation.

Show-me said:
Food inflation.........
.....Yet seesawing milk prices seem to have little effect on the buying habits of consumers like Powell, who has a growing 6-year-old.
When the average price of milk rose 19 percent in the spring of 2004, milk purchases declined less than 4 percent, said Stephanie Smith, a Denver-based nutritionist and spokeswoman with the National Dairy Council.
Click to expand...
I don't recall the price of milk in the 60's - I do remember the $0.90/hour job & 3 kids. They didn't notice the difference when reconstituted dry milk was mixed with the whole milk, equal parts. ...well, at least they drank it & didn't complain.
 
EWGuy brought up a good point this weekend that was to close to home for me to see..................Honey Bee's! The beekeepers hive have been getting decimated recently. Some loosing up wards of 90% of their hives. Most of these hives have a specific purpose in the industry pollinating fruits, nuts, and vine crops. With out these bee's those crops will be extremely hurt. Thousands of bee hives are loaded on trucks and place in orchards to pollinate crops every year.

Honey Bee's were hit with two different mites in past years that knocked the hive population down 50%, they were starting to recover. One mite was a (can you believe this) tracheal mite that suffocated the bee and the other was a mite that feed off of the larva. My hives were completely wiped out. The drug/poison protocol was similar to chemotherapy. Poison the hive just about to the point of killing it in hopes of killing the mite first. The other was simple Menthol. Problem is that Bee's rob weak or dead hives of their honey and they would pick up the mites from those hives and bring'em back.

I had been building up my hives as a retirement project. Wild swarms would use my old hive bodies as new homes. After they get strong I would "split" the hive to prevent overcrowding/swarming. I have struggled much in building them back up. Winter kill took a toll in past years, but now I wonder.

This is a SERIOUS economic problem for producers. Orange Juice futures anyone?
 
I will continue to stay on the side for the most part. May look for a one or two day play this week depending on morning action. Not much ED, but the S&P is sitting right between the 20 and 50 dma. Support one way, resistance the other. M&A activity may prop up the market yet again.

Good luck everyone! :D
 
Show-me..........Yes, an interesting and serious problem with this Bee thing for sure. I was reading a bit on it and did not realize just how much of a problem this has been recently.

This can't be easy with you yourself being involved with all this either.

I would hope you can recover from this and it does not create an even more serious problem with all the producers that depend on Honey Bee's.
 
Funny you bring this up. I have an uncle with a grove and he can't get bees to his grove. He's had wild bees but he doesn't think there are as many as usual. He mentioned the mite problem. Last year his yields were average but the citrus industry has more problems than just bees right now. The hurricanes in FL spread a citrus canker all over the state.
 
Wolverine said:
Show-me..........Yes, an interesting and serious problem with this Bee thing for sure. I was reading a bit on it and did not realize just how much of a problem this has been recently.

This can't be easy with you yourself being involved with all this either.

I would hope you can recover from this and it does not create an even more serious problem with all the producers that depend on Honey Bee's.
Click to expand...

For me it is just a hobby, four hives and just a few pennies involved. I have been in beekeeping since my pre-teen years just for fun and personal use. On the whole, it is a huge problem that the public does not realize.
 
Trader Fred is predicting a huge day, Robo's guy is predicting a huge day, and I got a itch! :nuts:
 
Show-me said:
Trader Fred is predicting a huge day, Robo's guy is predicting a huge day, and I got a itch! :nuts:
Click to expand...
Yeah and I know why, I'm in the "G" fund tomorrow. I thought the Robo guy said it could go either way?:confused:
 
Show,:)
It could break either way. In my case, I prefer to play this conservatively because it is harder to make a comeback from a big drop, than to preserve capital and wait for economic imponderables to clear up. Remember the rule of thumb (which I myself forgot exactly how it works --- something like if you lose 50%, you have to make up 100% just to get back to even). Anyway, I am sure you understand what I mean. Maybe Friday???

Show-me said:
OSM up big and USM future looking good! Is this our big move?
Click to expand...
 
OK now, read Tom's and Fred's comments the morning and I'm in! Going to go 50G/25C/25S because I fear a big +FV in the I fund if the market rockets up. No more big ED this week and we need some gains. At first I was going all in, then my conscience got the best of me. I still feel we will have some volatility and weakness toward the middle of the year, but a opportunity has risen an I need to make some money. Depending on how greedy I feel before the deadline may change my conservative thinking.
 
Here is a link to my local Bee shop. Look at the lower left margin, a link to the importance of Honey Bee's to the Almond industry. I have not read it yet but will. Also this companies puts out a great magazine for beekeepers. I just bought my subscription again.
http://www.dadant.com/
 
sponsor said:
Show,:)
It could break either way. In my case, I prefer to play this conservatively because it is harder to make a comeback from a big drop, than to preserve capital and wait for economic imponderables to clear up. Remember the rule of thumb (which I myself forgot exactly how it works --- something like if you lose 50%, you have to make up 100% just to get back to even). Anyway, I am sure you understand what I mean. Maybe Friday???
Click to expand...

Your post slipped in on me, but you are correct and my conviction is waining. :worried: I will wait until the dead line to make a final decision.
 
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