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- Thread starter Show-me
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Show-me
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 104
I still hate the F fund, but it did not hurt me to bad. What happened to the huge rally CNBC? Spin Meister's!
My stomach for risk is weak at best and there is a lot of data out this week. Fed minutes are coming out also.
One of the stocks on my watch list is BNI. Thanks Warren, you could have warned me.:blink: ACI and BTU have been on fire also. Get it........coal........on fire. :laugh:
Any way, while writing this S&P futures went red. As of now I will stay away from equities today. I am looking to buy back into the F fund if it falls again today.:blink: I want my 3 pennies back.
IMHO the Fed minutes will tell us what we already know. The Fed is watching inflation and economic growth. Inflation is on the rise and growth is slowing. How will the bulls spin this? They went from rallying on the possibility of a rate cut to rallying on no possibility of a rate cut because the economy may be slowing but is still expanding. Double speak!
Show-me
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 104
yuk
Fed minutes will be too late to make a decision.
If the market likes them and we rally big the OSM will likely follow tonight and a possible +FV could occur.
If the market does not like them and we plunge big the OSM will likely follow and a -FV could occur. Double whammy!
I think the risk is a bit much and I am sitting on 25% C fund so that will go back to the G fund today. Reasoning is if we rally big, I will bank my gain. If we tank big, more will likely come. If it is a flat day, I'm no better off in seeing the direction. Also PPI numbers come out so will the market get nervous over that.
Cob today
100% g fund.
Show-me
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 104
Fed Minutes
I'm not seeing the upside to the Fed Minutes. Basically inflation is rising. Labor cost are rising and they believe that should be off set by shrinking profit margins.:worried: All participant were expecting inflation to slow and it did not. The expect residential cost to moderate, but energy and food will continue upward. They also expect the economy to continue at the current pace or below it.:blink:
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=89100&postcount=458
The whole bet is on the PPI and CPI. If they come in HOT say goodnight. If they come in cool...........the bulls might be able to spin it. And if it comes in "on target" it still means it is rising. The market expects 0.7% PPI and 0.2% Core PPI. The market expects 0.6% CPI and 0.2% Core CPI.
vectorman
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 21
Re: Fed Minutes
Cause and Effect...the country has been struggling with high energy costs for over a year now. I wonder how much of a time delay there will be when the higher costs of energy is fully passed on by companies? You can only lay off so many workers, and cut costs to bare bone, before the company is finally forced to pass on more of those costs to the consumer ( who for the majority is living on credit cards and not saving any money for now nor retirement).
Griffin
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 50
Re: Fed Minutes
That is a good point. I think a lot of folks wanted to believe the energy cost spike of last year was just that and would receed. I don't think people seriously expected those prices to become the norm. The spike served to open Americans minds to the concept of paying European prices for energy.....now the energy companies are going to exploit that opportunity.
Show-me
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 104
The news has not been good but the market is moving forward. Even in the Fed Minutes they spoke narrowing profit margins, higher inflation, and moderate to slowing growth. I have been on the wrong side so much I am to the point I need a vacation.
Some of these new guys are on a tear. I may just follow them. My emotions are completely controlling what I do and the market is doing the opposite.
I would like to see one more big dip so that I'm not alone!!!!!!!!!:laugh:
Good luck everyone and have a nice weekend.
Show-me
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 104
O what have I done.
Well I thought I would catch a little cream that spilled out of the cup. No such luck! How serous is the sell on the news followed by Yahoo's earnings.
CPI core may have moderated, but that does not reflect Marchs PPI increase. You do not see how you can exclude food and energy to get the feel good core number. We don't pay for out good "excluding food and energy".
One thing I did notice is the (NSA) Not Seasonally Adjusted CPI rose 0.9% in March. That is tied with April 2006 CPI for the all time high reading since January 1997. I'm not totally sure what that represents, but it is interesting that it is so high. Are we focused on what they want us to be focused on?
http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpifaq.htm
The CPI represents all goods and services purchased for consumption by the reference population (U or W) BLS has classified all expenditure items into more than 200 categories, arranged into eight major groups. Major groups and examples of categories in each are as follows:
- FOOD AND BEVERAGES (breakfast cereal, milk, coffee, chicken, wine, service meals and snacks)
- HOUSING (rent of primary residence, owners' equivalent rent, fuel oil, bedroom furniture)
- APPAREL (men's shirts and sweaters, women's dresses, jewelry)
- TRANSPORTATION (new vehicles, airline fares, gasoline, motor vehicle insurance)
- MEDICAL CARE (prescription drugs and medical supplies, physicians' services, eyeglasses and eye care, hospital services)
- RECREATION (televisions, pets and pet products, sports equipment, admissions);
- EDUCATION AND COMMUNICATION (college tuition, postage, telephone services, computer software and accessories);
- OTHER GOODS AND SERVICES (tobacco and smoking products, haircuts and other personal services, funeral expenses).
The CPI does not include investment items, such as stocks, bonds, real estate, and life insurance. (These items relate to savings and not to day-to-day consumption expenses.)
For each of the more than 200 item categories, using scientific statistical procedures, the Bureau has chosen samples of several hundred specific items within selected business establishments frequented by consumers to represent the thousands of varieties available in the marketplace. For example, in a given supermarket, the Bureau may choose a plastic bag of golden delicious apples, U.S. extra fancy grade, weighing 4.4 pounds to represent the Apples category.Re: Solar
Assuming he is right again, regarding the market top on April 19 (tomorrow), this would be consistent with the signals picked up by the ebbtracker. In effect, the ebbtracker is in the I fund today and tomorrow, and on Friday it will be in the G fund.
Sky, can you find out more information regarding Nenner's prediction. Also, how well does your experience with the I fund gives you confidence (if any), that the drop in the dollar versus the Euro will cushion the drop in the EFAE? Any other opinions are also welcome. A trader at Bloomberg TV is waiting to see if buyers come in or not after the 1st hour of trading. Best wishes to all!
FundSurfer
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 39
Quiet on the sun. Not much solar activity going on.
Show-me
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 104
I'm not sure what he uses he was very vague of course. I focused in on "solar cycles".- Status
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