Show-me Account Talk

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Show ... I think your analysis is spot-on. People are looking at core-inflation, etc ... but of course they eliminate food and gas from those figures, which is what is eating everybodies lunch right now. Grocery prices are spiking due to a double whammy from increased fuel costs and the growing interest in ethanol (it's amazing how much corn is in everything). I think that the US consumer is going to be tightening their collective belt for some time to come and the markets are going to see that eventually.
 
I can't make a good prediction with a noon cut off. If today closes down I feel tomorrow will be up and if we close up, tomorrow will be down.

The S&P has a trend of alternating green and red days in a down trend.

I is very, very, very, risky at this point.
 
Show-me said:
I can't make a good prediction with a noon cut off. If today closes down I feel tomorrow will be up and if we close up, tomorrow will be down.

The S&P has a trend of alternating green and red days in a down trend.

I is very, very, very, risky at this point.
Click to expand...

I was sort of thinking I is less risky than C. Some built in hedges, like the dollar strength, and assumably less exposure to U.S. domestic problems??
 
50C
50S

Still way oversold and S is down 8 in a row. Throwing my dart because who knows what will happen after the cut off. Eat my short Tracy Ray.
 
Show-me said:
I can't make a good prediction with a noon cut off. If today closes down I feel tomorrow will be up and if we close up, tomorrow will be down.

The S&P has a trend of alternating green and red days in a down trend.

I is very, very, very, risky at this point.
Click to expand...


I'm going to hold my position today. No Change. NASDAQ is breaking below a critical 2500 level and S&P is also at a critical level. A close at or below these prices is going to be very bad technically. Yesterday's vid would show you this. :cool:
 
Poolman, I watched the vid and the odds of the S fund play in increasing in my favor. I'm scared and willing to take the pain.
 
Re: In my head.

Show-me said:
My quick two cents. Charts are ugly and we are due a bounce. My one day play may get stretched into two days because Tuesday is the last day of the First Five Days of January (FFDJ) indicator.

Looking back since 1950 we have had 22 down FFDJ weeks with a average of -2.01% for those.

Right now we are -3.9% on the S&P 500.

Only ONE YEAR was worse than we are right now at -4.7% in 1978 and the next closest was -3.4% in 1962. The next closest was -2.9%, now my point is that the odds of this FFDJ period of finishing as the second worse or the absolute worst period since 1950 has got to be pretty high.

Next, last year we had a similar set up. Only three trading days and the market went down. The next week up. Minor, but similar.

AGG or the F Fund. Has had one heck of a run and is due a rest. Just like last February. AGG goes up, SPY goes down. SPY goes up, AGG goes down. AGG is set up for a little rest and SPY is set up for a little bounce. How long?
Click to expand...


Remember this? We broke the record as the ABSOLUTE WORST FREAK'N FIRST FIVE DAYS OF JANUARY SINCE 1950!!!! Hold this Ms. Ray! Is it worse or worst? Aww crap, anyway I will do some long term analysis this weekend and we are getting close to a buy and hold spot. S&P down -5.4% I think.

AGG is way overbought and S fund is way oversold. Eight days in a row to the down. Nice set up!

PPT is setting in the wings. The technicals are way oversold for the S and C fund.

Now, how long do we hold? One day? Two? Three? We are set up for a nice shot at a profit, but do NOT BE CONFUSED I AM NOT BULLISH AT THIS POINT.
 
Re: In my head.

Show-me said:
Remember this? We broke the record as the ABSOLUTE WORST FREAK'N FIRST FIVE DAYS OF JANUARY SINCE 1950!!!! Hold this Ms. Ray! Is it worse or worst? Aww crap, anyway I will do some long term analysis this weekend and we are getting close to a buy and hold spot. S&P down -5.4% I think.

AGG is way overbought and S fund is way oversold. Eight days in a row to the down. Nice set up!

PPT is setting in the wings. The technicals are way oversold for the S and C fund.

Now, how long do we hold? One day? Two? Three? We are set up for a nice shot at a profit, but do NOT BE CONFUSED I AM NOT BULLISH AT THIS POINT.
Click to expand...


Very Good Analysis ShowMe, I could not have said it better. Hopefully we can be on the right side of the fence for a nice bounce. I personally think this market will see march Lowe's but we will have some nice 1 or 2 day bounces along the way.

The Sub Prime mess took three years to develop until it became clear that "Yes" We have a major problem. It will effect every sector of the market emotionally and financially.

We are approximately five month's into this mess since it became obvious there is a problem. IMO We have a long way to go. Watch those land mines out there and it is OK not to go 100% into any 1 fund on your IFT unless to the G - Fund. Be careful out there, Smart Money will win the Race. :)
 
More "house of pain" ahead. How bad is it when Bear Stern's has not had a losing quarter in, I think, 80 years until last quarter. BAM!!!
 
Re: In my head.

poolman said:
Very Good Analysis ShowMe, I could not have said it better. Hopefully we can be on the right side of the fence for a nice bounce. I personally think this market will see march Lowe's but we will have some nice 1 or 2 day bounces along the way.

The Sub Prime mess took three years to develop until it became clear that "Yes" We have a major problem. It will effect every sector of the market emotionally and financially.

We are approximately five month's into this mess since it became obvious there is a problem. IMO We have a long way to go. Watch those land mines out there and it is OK not to go 100% into any 1 fund on your IFT unless to the G - Fund. Be careful out there, Smart Money will win the Race. :)
Click to expand...
800 on the s&p coming soon for all longs...this big ol BEAR is gonna have his day in the berry patch....swell time for the shorts....our day has come.....
 
Steadygain said:
Show Me - losing is something I'm not use to and I have to admit the past few months have been terrible for me. Fortunately I did end the year with my original goal, but just barely. In previous years I would go 100% G Fund after meeting my goal - and subsequently missed out on some incredible rallies. To some degree I think joining the MB in 10/07 may have caused me to take a bigger risk - in hopes of showing how easy it can be to accurately assess the Markets. For the past 3 months no one has done better in this bizarre climate than you - whereas before this I did really well - but now I am at a loss and will follow your lead. I really appreciate you making your ITFs known and am encouraging others to watch you closely.

My sincerest gratitude for all you do.
Click to expand...

Thank you! Bizarre climate, you are correct Sir. Hang in there!
 
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