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Show-me Account Talk
- Thread starter Show-me
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Show-me
Well-known member
I should add nothing goes straight down. A bounce is due, but playing it will be hard.
100 C
350zCommTech
Well-known member
hessian
Member
Hey Show-me,
I'm sitting here all in "F" too, also wondering if there's a chance for recovery in any of C, S, I for Monday/Tuesday. Or, even if we're near bottoms yet - to buy in?
Checking other's moves today, here: http://www.tsptalk.com/tracker/tsp_user_record_all.php
Personally, I just don't see anything that would be the news for me to think were even near bottoms yet. Most technical resistances broke - VERY few holding (for now), and something needs to pull sentiment out of the gutter, too! The "I" chart is maybe so-so, but you know the "I" largely follows USMs - so what news here in the US could possibly turn this around?
My question is there anything happening that can hurt Bonds (the "F")?
- otherwise, I think its best to stay here, in F, at least until its chart says we've reached "overbought" here.
This sounds most resonable/rational to me.
\Appreciate any opinion/perspective additional that you have!
Much Thanks!
VR
Show-me
Well-known member
Show-me,
Whoops, your too quick for me!
Your right though, things can turn on a dime.
Best of Luck!
Sorry. I like bonds but they have had a great run, short term. I am playing a bounce in the C and will return to the F. I can't see myself staying in the C for more than 1-3 days.
Again, eat my shorts Tracy Ray.
Show-me
Well-known member
Show-me
Well-known member
You will do fine. Do your research and read, read, read. There are a ton of people here to learn from and a ton of links and other material that will help you. Don't expect it to happen over night. The more you work at it the better you will get and if you can't get in the groove use a buy and hold allocation.
Always get the 5% from the matching funds and fill up the Roth.
Good luck!
Show-me
Well-known member
At first I was going to spread out my play and diversify. I really wished I did. The dollar rallied back and the S is in the house of pain.
S fund has had 6 red candlesticks in a row, it is defiantly due a bounce. The C fund is in lock step and the I fund got spanked with a huge -FV. I should have played the diversified plan. Next time. lol
My reason for the C was simple, big multinational companies and not as volatile as the other two.
When was the last time the S fund had 6 red days in a row? July, after the top.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$EMW&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p51972347693
Now look at the C fund during the same period.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p51972347693
The C fund is REALLY due a bounce!!!
S fund has had 6 red candlesticks in a row, it is defiantly due a bounce. The C fund is in lock step and the I fund got spanked with a huge -FV. I should have played the diversified plan. Next time. lol
My reason for the C was simple, big multinational companies and not as volatile as the other two.
When was the last time the S fund had 6 red days in a row? July, after the top.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$EMW&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p51972347693
Now look at the C fund during the same period.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p51972347693
The C fund is REALLY due a bounce!!!
Show-me
Well-known member
Briefing is expecting only 2% to 4% gain for this year on the S&P. 
Now surly we can beat that even if they limit us to 2 IFT a month and if your contribution go directly to a equity fund you will get a additional two or three additional moves to the G fund.
Eat my short Tracy Ray! :nuts:
Getting the 5% matching funds and fully funding mine and my wifes Roth IRA's. Thanks for showing me the light Tracy! :ban:
Now surly we can beat that even if they limit us to 2 IFT a month and if your contribution go directly to a equity fund you will get a additional two or three additional moves to the G fund.
Eat my short Tracy Ray! :nuts:
Getting the 5% matching funds and fully funding mine and my wifes Roth IRA's. Thanks for showing me the light Tracy! :ban:
Show-me
Well-known member
From the STA:
January Barometer predicts years course with .754 batting average.
Every down January on the S&P since 1950, without exception, preceded a new or extended bear market, or a flat market.
S&P gains January's first five days preceded full-year gains 86.1% of the time, in election years, only years 1988 and 1956 have been wrong.
Things that make you go hummm.
January Barometer predicts years course with .754 batting average.
Every down January on the S&P since 1950, without exception, preceded a new or extended bear market, or a flat market.
S&P gains January's first five days preceded full-year gains 86.1% of the time, in election years, only years 1988 and 1956 have been wrong.
Things that make you go hummm.
hessian
Member
Show-me,
First a BIG thank you - I do continue learn (and gain) from folks like you. I have been all 100%F, since the 2nd Jan., so basically I was warm, safe, secure, and had expected - well guessed is probably a better word - the scenario on Friday since the technical analyses had most of the funds sitting "on-the-fence". No emotion was involved or in my decisions. BTW, I've learned alot about technical analyses, faster than likely anywhere else - just by watching Poolman's daily-videos (highly recommended for other learners).
Reason I'm posting is because of your post, quoted above. It took me back a bit (again no emotion involved). But it especially made me wonder, why, as all the charts I so vehemently found objectionable, and obviously apprehensive - would look to "long-experienced" folks, like yourself, seeing the same technicals, as "opportunity"?
I caused me to, re-evaluate my paradigms! I can't say I'm fully charged, and ready to jump in, but I'm certainly looking at things differently as a result. One observation I have, is to note that the historical "Seasonality" hasn't seemed very reliable, as has much (to me anyway), in this market lately - its more often seemingly gone opposite to what has been "normal" in past. I'll have to see what Monday brings (my only choice now).
Thanks again showing us, what at least to me, has been an "alternate" perspective!
VR
Last edited:
Show-me
Well-known member
In my head.
My quick two cents. Charts are ugly and we are due a bounce. My one day play may get stretched into two days because Tuesday is the last day of the First Five Days of January (FFDJ) indicator.
Looking back since 1950 we have had 22 down FFDJ weeks with a average of -2.01% for those.
Right now we are -3.9% on the S&P 500.
Only ONE YEAR was worse than we are right now at -4.7% in 1978 and the next closest was -3.4% in 1962. The next closest was -2.9%, now my point is that the odds of this FFDJ period of finishing as the second worse or the absolute worst period since 1950 has got to be pretty high.
Next, last year we had a similar set up. Only three trading days and the market went down. The next week up. Minor, but similar.
AGG or the F Fund. Has had one heck of a run and is due a rest. Just like last February. AGG goes up, SPY goes down. SPY goes up, AGG goes down. AGG is set up for a little rest and SPY is set up for a little bounce. How long?
No ED tomorrow and lite Earnings. OSM should be bloody and EZ and FTSE should get a nice set up for a +FV if they finish weak and we finish strong.
I may pull 50% off of the table tomorrow and reevaluate for Tuesday. Then again I may go all if the market looks real good. All of the Fed Speakers, ED, and Earnings have me a little spooked for the rest of the week. We have two on Tuesday.
Now you know what little is in my head. lol Good luck and Tracy Ray eat my shorts.
My quick two cents. Charts are ugly and we are due a bounce. My one day play may get stretched into two days because Tuesday is the last day of the First Five Days of January (FFDJ) indicator.
Looking back since 1950 we have had 22 down FFDJ weeks with a average of -2.01% for those.
Right now we are -3.9% on the S&P 500.
Only ONE YEAR was worse than we are right now at -4.7% in 1978 and the next closest was -3.4% in 1962. The next closest was -2.9%, now my point is that the odds of this FFDJ period of finishing as the second worse or the absolute worst period since 1950 has got to be pretty high.
Next, last year we had a similar set up. Only three trading days and the market went down. The next week up. Minor, but similar.
AGG or the F Fund. Has had one heck of a run and is due a rest. Just like last February. AGG goes up, SPY goes down. SPY goes up, AGG goes down. AGG is set up for a little rest and SPY is set up for a little bounce. How long?
No ED tomorrow and lite Earnings. OSM should be bloody and EZ and FTSE should get a nice set up for a +FV if they finish weak and we finish strong.
I may pull 50% off of the table tomorrow and reevaluate for Tuesday. Then again I may go all if the market looks real good. All of the Fed Speakers, ED, and Earnings have me a little spooked for the rest of the week. We have two on Tuesday.
Now you know what little is in my head. lol Good luck and Tracy Ray eat my shorts.
Steadygain
TSP Elite
Show Me - losing is something I'm not use to and I have to admit the past few months have been terrible for me. Fortunately I did end the year with my original goal, but just barely. In previous years I would go 100% G Fund after meeting my goal - and subsequently missed out on some incredible rallies. To some degree I think joining the MB in 10/07 may have caused me to take a bigger risk - in hopes of showing how easy it can be to accurately assess the Markets. For the past 3 months no one has done better in this bizarre climate than you - whereas before this I did really well - but now I am at a loss and will follow your lead. I really appreciate you making your ITFs known and am encouraging others to watch you closely.
My sincerest gratitude for all you do.
My sincerest gratitude for all you do.
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