Sensei's account talk

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just seen something on PBS last night about the great stock market crash in the 1900's and back then a guy i think named Durant had alot of influence on the market so when it started to crash he kept putting his billions back into it to save it and well he died brike and just before that he filed bankruptcy and claimed his worth at $250.00, the value of the clothes on his back. back then they also said that one man or company should not have that much financial strength to be able to manipulate the market. i think the program was NOVA.
 
Looks like a bounce around the center line, go nowhere kind of day. Will allow the 20 day MAs to rise up a little. Hohum. Going to bed now. Nighty night.
 
Here's a crack at technical analysis. Inside the circles are "W" formations. Go back to Nov-Dec 2010 (first white circle), we saw a very similar formation which turned out to be consolidation at about the half-way mark of the bull market uptrend. The 20 day SMA never dipped below the 50 day.

The magenta circle shows another "W" that turned out to be a precursor to last summer's crash. The important difference was that the magenta one happened during a downtrending market in which the 20 day was below the 50 day.

The most recent "W" almost took the 20 below the 50, but seems to have recovered just in time. I know that past performance is not a guarantee of future results, and we're about to go into May, when you're supposed to sell and go away. But the overall picture looks more bullish than bearish to me. As Bquat would say - "Contrary opinions welcome".
:)

SPX 2012_04_28 (2).png
 
Ocean's List has the herd at roughly 48/51 GF/CSI. Lots of people hitting the deck in the last couple days. I expect another moderately down day, kissing the 20 DMA and shaking off the weak bulls, then up we go.
 
Sensei said:
Ocean's List has the herd at roughly 48/51 GF/CSI. Lots of people hitting the deck in the last couple days. I expect another moderately down day, kissing the 20 DMA and shaking off the weak bulls, then up we go.
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Have you factored in Friday's upcoming jobs data report? If it's negative, it will be a game changer.
 
jkenjohnson said:
Have you factored in Friday's upcoming jobs data report? If it's negative, it will be a game changer.
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Nope. I'm trying to base my decisions solely on what I see in the charts. Not that I don't believe that news and data can have an impact on the market, but I find that following that kind of stuff leads me to make emotional decisions. I see others on this board getting PO'd all the time because the market doesn't do what it's "supposed to do". So I'm trying to put blinders on to that. We'll see how it goes.
 
Sensei said:
Nope. I'm trying to base my decisions solely on what I see in the charts. Not that I don't believe that news and data can have an impact on the market, but I find that following that kind of stuff leads me to make emotional decisions. I see others on this board getting PO'd all the time because the market doesn't do what it's "supposed to do". So I'm trying to put blinders on to that. We'll see how it goes.
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Makes sense.
 
Sensei said:
How about this? Too much wishful thinking perhaps?
View attachment 18722
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Um, yes, too much. Expectations of reaching the channel, at a steeper rise isn't realistic; however, nothing is impossible with the manipulation of the market. With that said, I would suspect that they would wait for glorious improvements in the market (like this) to later in the year... probably mid-Sept...
 
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Ah, Bill Clinton jokes. Good times. :D

Was I the only one who couldn't access this site for the first hour or two of the trading day? I gave up and went to bed.

Obviously my ascending channel was a result of my hopium addiction. The symptoms remain, though, as I am now seeing a bull flag. I'd revise my upside target to about 1420-1428 - around the previous highs. I don't think we'll make a new high though. The 20 day SMA just crossed below the 50. The EMAs are still holding up, but I think the cross in the SMA is a sign that this bull market is no longer impervious. So short-term bullish, intermediate term bearish for me.
 
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