Sensei's account talk

[A2Z1112]

Anything is possible but it is too early to tell. There is thin support under the SP indicies right now until it reaches 1310ish. Stronger support is at 1290ish. So the head could have a way to go before completing.

 

[Sensei]

Anything is possible but it is too early to tell. There is thin support under the SP indicies right now until it reaches 1310ish. Stronger support is at 1290ish. So the head could have a way to go before completing.

I agree. That's why I put that arrow down there between the 200 SMA and the long-term trend line. Today's looking bullish, but my thought is that it's going to be consolidation - working off the oversold condition. If this does turn out to be an inverse H & S, it's much larger than the one I circled from last year, so will take a longer time to play out, I'd guess.

 

[Sensei]

If we don't bounce today at the 200 day EMA, we might go down to 1277 - the 200 day SMA, and precisely where I bought in at the beginning of this year.

At 50/50 and no IFTs, it's not so much that I want the correction to end, as I want this month to end. Still another 10 trading days before I can buy again! Looking back at other pullback/corrections of the past year, most seem to rally off the bottom in the latter half of the month. That means the best I can do is hold. Looks like the average duration of the rallies is about 5-7 days. Hopefully I can sell at the end of a late May rally, and buy another dip in June.

 

[Sensei]

Not much to report since my last post. Still half in half out. The opening looks like it will be strong again today. I'd expect a down day soon to fake some people out, then another couple days up to around 1340. Still way too many frickin' days in May. I guess if we approach 1340, I'll think about selling in installments. Sound like a resolute plan? Hmm.

BTW, I have an order in for some BAC. While the rest of the market rallied yesterday, it dropped almost 3%. I ought to get a pretty decent price at the opening bell.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Not much to report since my last post. Still half in half out. The opening looks like it will be strong again today. I'd expect a down day soon to fake some people out, then another couple days up to around 1340. Still way too many frickin' days in May. I guess if we approach 1340, I'll think about selling in installments. Sound like a resolute plan? Hmm.

BTW, I have an order in for some BAC. While the rest of the market rallied yesterday, it dropped almost 3%. I ought to get a pretty decent price at the opening bell.

If you are out of IFT's how can you sell in installments. I assume you are saying something like going to 75%G and 25%S and then 100%G later?

 

[berline]

Even after you're out of trades for the month, you can still goto G as many times as you like. I Imagine that's what he was talking about.

If you are out of IFT's how can you sell in installments. I assume you are saying something like going to 75%G and 25%S and then 100%G later?

 

[jkenjohnson]

Even after you're out of trades for the month, you can still goto G as many times as you like. I Imagine that's what he was talking about.

I must be missing something. If you go to the G fund, don't you have to go 100% if you are out of IFT's?

 

[berline]

Nope...your first 2 IFT's count no matter what. Then, after that, you can goto G 28 more times if you'd like. Seriously...on a daily basis if that floats your boat. you can change to G only, as little as 1% at a time.

I must be missing something. If you go to the G fund, don't you have to go 100% if you are out of IFT's?

 

[Sensei]

I must be missing something. If you go to the G fund, don't you have to go 100% if you are out of IFT's?

Nope...your first 2 IFT's count no matter what. Then, after that, you can goto G 28 more times if you'd like. Seriously...on a daily basis if that floats your boat. you can change to G only, as little as 1% at a time.

Indeed. In fact, you can do <1% IFTs to any of the funds. For example, a couple days ago my TSP.gov account said that I had:

50.??% G, 1.01% F, 1% C, 44.75% S, 2.95% I.

So I did a rebalance so that I ended up:
49% G, 2% F, 1% C, 45% S, 3% I.

I'm thinking my next IFT would move about 10-15% from S to G. I hate to go all out, but as we get closer to June and new IFTs, I'll feel better about it.

 

[nasa1974]

Glad to see that some members still understand the <1% move.

 

[Sensei]

If the market is up today, the I fund ought to make back a lot of what it lost yesterday through FV. I think at the very least I'll dump my 3% investment in I. Might also shed about 10% from S.

According to Ocean's List, 41% of the herd is in S fund alone. Getting very bullish after having just bottomed.:worried:

 

[Sensei]

Disappointing start, but could really go either way from here. I moved about 9% to safety. Here's the new allocation:

57 - G
02 - F
01 - C
40 - S

God, let this month be over.

 

[polarbear]

Amen.

 

[Sensei]

IFT #6 coming down the pipe. Moved 5% more to G for the following allocation:

62 - G
02 - F
01 - C
35 - S

I'll probably stay this way until the first buying opportunity in June.

 

[Sensei]

I might have overlooked someone, but I see no one else on the AT with 6 IFTs for the month. Johnnyatc and Widget have 5. I think we deserve some sort of booby prize. :nuts: The Silver Sucker award, or something.

And if stocks go up early next week, I might just go for #7!

 

[Sensei]

Being out of IFTs as I am, I can't get back into the market until Monday. Nikkei bounced back from its lows of the day, and SPX futures are up right now. I sold half my stock allocation at 1340, and another 14% at 1320. I was kind of hoping for a buy in price below 1300, but don't know if that is going to happen. We could see 1320 today, and be right back to the 1340 area by the end of Friday. Or we could keep bouncing around in this vaguely ascending channel. June sucked last year, but looks poised to be a rally month this year. Whatever happens, I only get one chance to buy in this month, so I'd prefer not to screw it up.

 

[nasa1974]

Being out of IFTs as I am, I can't get back into the market until Monday. Nikkei bounced back from its lows of the day, and SPX futures are up right now. I sold half my stock allocation at 1340, and another 14% at 1320. I was kind of hoping for a buy in price below 1300, but don't know if that is going to happen. We could see 1320 today, and be right back to the 1340 area by the end of Friday. Or we could keep bouncing around in this vaguely ascending channel. June sucked last year, but looks poised to be a rally month this year. Whatever happens, I only get one chance to buy in this month, so I'd prefer not to screw it up.

May looked like it would be a rally month also and look what happened.

 

[polarbear]

April looked like it would be a rally month, but that got cut short quick. I wish these Euros would stop bickering and actually fix something. They just may, but not when you are waiting for it. Supreme Court on Obamacare in June will be interesting.

 

[bmneveu]

Being out of IFTs as I am, I can't get back into the market until Monday. Nikkei bounced back from its lows of the day, and SPX futures are up right now. I sold half my stock allocation at 1340, and another 14% at 1320. I was kind of hoping for a buy in price below 1300, but don't know if that is going to happen. We could see 1320 today, and be right back to the 1340 area by the end of Friday. Or we could keep bouncing around in this vaguely ascending channel. June sucked last year, but looks poised to be a rally month this year. Whatever happens, I only get one chance to buy in this month, so I'd prefer not to screw it up.

This morning is turning out to be a dive for the US markets. Does this change anything for you? S&P is just above 1300 right now. My emotions are on the fence. Don't know whether to be scared or to take advantage of the cheap prices!

 

[nnuut]

Calling a BOTTOM is almost impossible, waiting for confirmation of a turn around is the best method.