Sensei's account talk

[weatherweenie]

My wife and I decide that this summer, on our trip back to LA, we want to do a little side trip to Vegas. Treasure Island has a $79/night special, and looks like a good place to take kids. So I start to make the reservation, and there's a disclaimer as I proceed telling me that there is a $25+tax/night "resort fee" on top of the regular 10% tax. Is this the latest scheme to veil price hikes? Like when airlines advertise a low price, then tack on a "gas tax". Just friggin' raise prices and chalk it up to inflation, for godsake. Ridiculous.

Check out South Point. They are south of the strip, but it is a very nice property. I'm not sure if they charge a resort fee, or not.

 

[Sensei]

Check out South Point. They are south of the strip, but it is a very nice property. I'm not sure if they charge a resort fee, or not.

Looks like a nice hotel. My wife has her preferences though, and it's all about keeping the boss happy. I think she found something to her liking.

Today looks like we'll be headed back down. The bulls around here were talking about a "V", but I usually see "W" patterns. I'm thinking we'll go back down to test the 50 day, then head back up to the 20. My hope is that we'll break through to the upside and hit a new high. Then I'll be glad to sell. Of course, things never go the way I envision them. So, whatever.

 

[Sensei]

I might be wrong, but I think there have been ups and downs (mostly downs) of 1% or more in each of the last 5 trading days, and 6 of the last 7. I don't like that sort of volatility.

Today closed right at the 50 day EMA (S&P). Good place to bounce. But every dingleberry with an internet connection can see that, so we'll probably go lower. I'm still in...

 

[Sensei]

Stocks are really getting beat down. The SPX 50 day is now looking like overhead resistance. The Nasdaq is taking a fat dump. And the S fund is lagging hard today. I think we'll keep going down until the 20 day sinks below the 50 day, then we'll get a rally. I'll be holding until that time comes.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Stocks are really getting beat down. The SPX 50 day is now looking like overhead resistance. The Nasdaq is taking a fat dump. And the S fund is lagging hard today. I think we'll keep going down until the 20 day sinks below the 50 day, then we'll get a rally. I'll be holding until that time comes.

It's all been on mostly low volume though.

 

[Sensei]

Little sideways day with tails above and below. Could either be the end of the pullback (see the mini-pullback in late January), or consolidation before a bigger drop (look back to November or, gulp, summer ). From a bullish perspective, if we were to bounce here, there would be a really clean "W" in the chart.

 

[Sensei]

So which do we like, EMA or SMA? If you're an SMA man, like me, then you'll be displeased to know that the DAX is - as I type - experiencing a 20/50 death cross, with a lot of open space below before hitting the 200. If, however, you are an EMA man - as is our fearless moderator - then the 20 is still holding just above the 50, with the 200 representing support just a little to the south.

It seems to me, from other bull market tops I've looked back at, that a common pattern is to see a relief rally shortly after the 20/50 death cross. The S&P still has a way to go, but I think it's on its way. I might move 50% to safety today...

 

[Sensei]

I can't for the life of me figure out which way we are headed, so I'm going:

50 G
20 C
25 S
05 I

I'll ride the fence and lose one leg rather than stand on the wrong side and lose both.

 

[Sensei]

Trying to step back and get the big picture. Here's the S&P 2 year chart. If we go up and break the 20 day SMA, I'd say the Head & Shoulders is out of the picture. That would be my all clear signal to buy back in 100%. If we drop below the 50 day SMA, the H&S would appear to be in play and I'd wait on the sidelines to re-enter at a lower price.

For reference - sold 50% at SPX 1385.

 

[Sensei]

Looks like there was about a 1% shift to cash/bonds on the total tracker. The ratio appears to be 36/64 G&F/C,S,I. It's been holding around 35/65 for the entire week. I'd like to see a sharp move down that triggers some selling to about 50/50. Then I'd feel comfortable about jumping back in 100%. I think a lot of people are riding this pullback out, expecting the bull run to resume and erase the recent losses. Can't wait to find out.

 

[Handballer]

Philip Humber threw the 21st perfect game in major league history Saturday, and the third ever for the White Sox, beating the Mariners in Seattle, 4-0

 

[Sensei]

Philip Humber threw the 21st perfect game in major league history Saturday, and the third ever for the White Sox, beating the Mariners in Seattle, 4-0

I saw - pretty amazing. The first question that came to mind was, "Who's Philip Humber?" I looked up his stats and saw that he's a 30 year-old journeyman of sorts. We'll see if he can follow it up with a solid season.

 

[Sensei]

Just scoping out Ocean's List and the recent IFT's on the AutoTracker. People seem to be throwing their money at the weakness. The herd remains largely unchanged. Dangerous complacency.

I've never been happier to lose 0.57%. I actually moved up about 20 slots and cracked the top 100. :cheesy: Sticking with my 50/50 position for another day.

 

[Striken7]

I've never been happier to lose 0.57%. I actually moved up about 20 slots and cracked the top 100. :cheesy: Sticking with my 50/50 position for another day.

I feel the same about my 0.59% loss. Unfortunately my only options left for April are into G, so I for one am hoping for more weakness for another week.

 

[Sensei]

I had one more IFT, so I used it to go all in. We'll see what price the S&P closes at, but I got my 50% out at 1385, and as of now it's still about 10 points below that. I'm encouraged by the retaking of the 50 EMA. I'm betting we take down the 20 while we're at it this week. If I'm wrong, I can bail and get back in in May.

New allocation:
95 - S
05 - I

I feel the same about my 0.59% loss. Unfortunately my only options left for April are into G, so I for one am hoping for more weakness for another week.

As long as you hold your core position, you'll be OK. New IFTs are right around the corner, and May ought to offer some trading opportunities if you are good at timing. (BIG "if", right?)

 

[Sensei]

Does it not look like the last 5 trading days have created a downward channel - more like a bull flag than a bear flag? I'm seeing a "W" in the making, but usually as soon as I say that, the market goes the other way. :embarrest:

In the name of future reference, I bought back in at SPX 1372. 13 points lower than I sold. Clinging to double digits at 99 on the tracker. Anyhow...

 

[jkenjohnson]

I had one more IFT, so I used it to go all in. We'll see what price the S&P closes at, but I got my 50% out at 1385, and as of now it's still about 10 points below that. I'm encouraged by the retaking of the 50 EMA. I'm betting we take down the 20 while we're at it this week. If I'm wrong, I can bail and get back in in May.

New allocation:
95 - S
05 - I




As long as you hold your core position, you'll be OK. New IFTs are right around the corner, and May ought to offer some trading opportunities if you are good at timing. (BIG "if", right?)

I think you made a smart move. I started to do the same thing but just could not do it with all the Europe and Asia news floating around.

 

[Sensei]

I think you made a smart move. I started to do the same thing but just could not do it with all the Europe and Asia news floating around.

Well, England's in a recession, S&P is downgrading India to junk, mad cow disease is threatening U.S. beef exports throughout the world, and the DAX just dove about 0.3% in the last 5 minutes. What could go wrong?

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Well, England's in a recession, S&P is downgrading India to junk, mad cow disease is threatening U.S. beef exports throughout the world, and the DAX just dove about 0.3% in the last 5 minutes. What could go wrong?

Nothing, AAPL is up... the World has been saved.

AAPL

AAPL

AAPL

 

[jkenjohnson]

Nothing, AAPL is up... the World has been saved.

AAPL

AAPL

AAPL

As Apple goes, so goes the market. Not my saying.