Sensei's account talk

[Sensei]

I woke up to the pleasant surprise of seeing the S-fund up over 0.7%. S&P dipped down very close to the 20 day EMA. I hope that's good enough - and Bquat detected what appears to be a bull flag. The DAX and Dow Transports, however, are caught in a very tight channel between the 20 and 50 EMAs. I obviously hope they break up and the rally continues, but can't get too bullish yet.

Weekend. Spring is here. Don't worry, be happy time.

 

[Sensei]

I can't remember if I saw it on Yahoo or WSJ, but over the weekend I read an article on how there were a record number of short options at the end of last week, and that "industry leaders" were betting on this being a top. Makes sense, then, that if mainstream media is reporting it, that the market would bolt upward on Monday. I was hoping we'd see more short covering today, but Europe looks like short-covering was met with profit-taking. Now it's anyone's guess where we'll go. We definitely have some daylight between the SPX price and 20 day MAs again. Hopefully this time we'll just move sideways for a few days. I think we've now had 2 tests of the 20 days during this bull market. If the third time's a charm, maybe it will spell a top.

For now, I'm going back to my strategy of holding until a confirmed close below the 20 day.

 

[Sensei]

The charts on WSJ seem a little unreliable today. Guess I'll have to check some other places.

 

[jkenjohnson]

After our market stalled, the Nikkei just stood up and flipped the bird. Up another 1.64%, the day after being up 2.36%. I hope we take its cue.

Futures were looking good earlier.

 

[Sensei]

Futures were looking good earlier.

After I wrote that, I clicked on the Nikkei at WSJ, and it then showed it being down -0.71%. Disregard what I said. Still, Europe looks like it's battling to stay above the neutral line.

 

[Sensei]

DAX down very hard. Crashed right through its 20 day SMA. The S&P looks like it ought to go down and hit its 20 SMA today, unless things turn around. Probably going to hemorrhage in the S fund. Will hold my position to see where we close. As long as we're above SPX 20 SMA, I'll stay in stocks.

Even if Birchtree weren't banned, I think today would be a gardening day for him.

 

[jkenjohnson]

After I wrote that, I clicked on the Nikkei at WSJ, and it then showed it being down -0.71%. Disregard what I said. Still, Europe looks like it's battling to stay above the neutral line.

Today is not looking good. Ferdinand must be tied up in the barn.

 

[Mapper]

I'm going to throw in some optimism here. Have been noticing lately that our markets aren't following Europe and Asian markets as strongly as they had been over the last year. Today would be a good day to solidify that disconnection and post some positive numbers. In theory people have been looking for an entry and hopefully this is one for them to jump on. I think I'll be doing some buying for long-term buy and hold accounts today.

 

[Bquat]

Today is not looking good. Ferdinand must be tied up in the barn.

I miss him too. There's no push to the market. No watering the flowers.:worried:

 

[jpcavin]

I miss him too. There's no push to the market. No watering the flowers.:worried:

Yes, but can you smell that superlative bull manure just around the bend? :laugh:

 

[Sensei]

DAX looks to be hitting overhead resistance at the 20 day SMA. SPX, meanwhile, looks like it could head down to test its 20 day SMA. So which will break first? Resistance at the 20 day in the DAX, or support at the 20 day in the S&P? I really feel like we should be getting a rally here soon. Dumb money indicator, perhaps.:embarrest:

 

[Sensei]

Looks to me like the S&P closed higher than it did on 3/26, but the W4500 did not. So the C fund has made back what it lost last week, but not S fund. Does anyone see it differently? Just curious.

 

[Bquat]

Looks to me like the S&P closed higher than it did on 3/26, but the W4500 did not. So the C fund has made back what it lost last week, but not S fund. Does anyone see it differently? Just curious.

When you look at my charts later, you will see we went higher but closed lower that the 26th. Also I showed why the S fund came up to resistance.

 

[Bquat]

When you look at my charts later, you will see we went higher but closed lower that the 26th. Also I showed why the S fund came up to resistance.

Here's the red Sensei line.:blink:

 

[Sensei]

Uh, don't look now, but it's a massive global sell-off.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Uh, don't look now, but it's a massive global sell-off.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Uh, don't look now, but it's a massive global sell-off.

I guess the sell off is due to Spain. Here we go again, but with a different Country.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

I guess the sell off is due to Spain. Here we go again, but with a different Country.

It's old news... Spain has been struggling to get a decent yield on their bonds... Something new happen?

 

[Mapper]

Spain is actually more concerning than Greece. Bigger economy, different underlying causes to the current situation...might put a different spin on folks perspective.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Stocks fall as eurozone fears flare up- MSN Money