Rogue's Account Talk

[Rogue]

IFT just before Noon.
Moving from/to
G 0/20
F 0/5
C 45/55
S 30/15
I 25/5

Accd'g to another site, F fund is best when interest rates are low.
I need to ask one of the smart(er) folks on here if that's an overgeneralization or a pretty good rule of thumb.

 

[Rogue]

IFT this morning.
Moving from/to
G 20/45
F 5/5
C 55/30
S 15/10
I 5/0
L50 0/10

A little too much uncertainty with a Congress bent on shutting down the gov't, Putin being Putin, and the day-to-day volatility going on in the market(s).

 

[Rogue]

Your Personal Investment Performance (PIP) for the past 12 months ending 11/30/2014 is 11.3%.

#112 on the non-premium AT @ 8.96%

 

[Rogue]

Move from/to today, after Noon:

G 45/20
F 5/5
C 30/25
S 10/15
I 0/0
L50 10/20
L40 0/15

Expecting a swell with good news from Fed, Santa bump, and good December.
Also, planning 2015 to be more buy & hold in L2040 & L2050.

 

[Rogue]

Maaaaan, I shoulda pumped a chunk into the I fund earlier this week. Putin has been de-pantsed and it's going to run up.

 

[Rogue]

Wellllll, maybe I need to reconsider my 2015 plan.
I was going to do a 50/50 split between L2050 and L2040 early in January and let it ride.
But so far this year I'm beating those funds by 2% each (accd'g to the autotracker).
So, maybe I'll reconsider that strategy and stick with what I'm doing.
I'm at 8.72% ytd while L2050 is at 6.77% and L2040 is at 6.56%.


Cfund is at 14.37% ytd.
Only 20 on the non-premium AT are beating that, and less than 10 are beating it by >2%.
The top 3 premiums, at last update on 11/28/14, were within 5% of the Cfund (@14.06%), but the best (PlusSS) was only at 10.77%.

Another option is ponying up the cash to follow the Sentiment Survey System.

Near the top of the AT consistently seem to be Skypilot, Fedgolfer, and Felixthecat.
All 3 have fewer IFTs than Rogue this year, so could be followed.
Plan in progress...

 

[Rogue]

Well, Felixthecat is 100% F fund...and negative on the year so far.
Skypilot is 50/50 C/S and Fedgolfer is 65/35 C/S I think.

So Ima move from this: To This:

2050: 20 0
2040: 15 0
G: 20 25
F: 5 10
C: 25 40
S: 15 20
I: 0 5

I'm not sure about buying I Fund right now, but it could be juicy in the Far East. Europe is still a crap shoot.

 

[Rogue]

Felixthecat is all G.
Skypilot is 50/50 C/S and Fedgolfer is 69/31 G/S.
Frixxx is hidden, or in the premium tracker, or has gone underground or some damn thing.

So Ima move from this: // To This:


G: 25 // 65
F: 10 // 5
C: 40 // 20
S: 20 // 5
I: 5 // 5

I'm not sure about buying I Fund right now, but it could be juicy in the Far East. Europe is still a crap shoot.[/QUOTE]

 

[Rogue]

Somehow, I didn't put my last IFT, noted above, into the AT.
#560, @ 3.31% YTD.

Felixthecat is still 100% G, Skypilot is 50/50 C/S, and Fedgolfer is 65/35 C/S.

So, Ima move some this afternoon, effective 4/15.

G: 40
F: 10
C: 20
S: 15
I: 15

Now, to update the AT.

 

[FogSailing]

It's always tough to make these calls. I went mostly G last Thursday but left 5% in I, 5% in S and 5% in F. This is supposed to be the time when we're all fully vested and the market is cranking but with the 2015 winter, the Transportation sector lagging, and the jobs numbers being light...I thought I'd take a step back for a bit. I've gotten more risk averse since I retired. Too bad. I really wanted to hang in there but can't afford a major hit. The RSI and MACD for the S&P aren't really giving me a clear signal that things are bullish right now. Best of luck. FS.

 

[Rogue]

Felixthecat is still 100% G, Skypilot is 50/50 C/S, and Fedgolfer is 65/35 C/S.
Felix- 7 IFTs YTD
Skypilot - 0
Fedgolfer - 0

Today's move:


From: To:

G: 40 20
F: 10 10
C: 20 35
S: 15 15
I: 15 20


Buy the dip, don't be the dip.
I'm trying to contrarian the "go away in May" mentality for at least a few days.
Maybe get a few bargain buys.

 

[FogSailing]

Felixthecat is still 100% G, Skypilot is 50/50 C/S, and Fedgolfer is 65/35 C/S.
Felix- 7 IFTs YTD
Skypilot - 0
Fedgolfer - 0

Today's move:


From: To:

G: 40 20
F: 10 10
C: 20 35
S: 15 15
I: 15 20


Buy the dip, don't be the dip.
I'm trying to contrarian the "go away in May" mentality for at least a few days.
Maybe get a few bargain buys.

Goof Luck Rogue. I'm still sitting on the sidelines. If things firm up by COB Monday I may jump back in the pond. Time for some analysis over the weekend on what the RSI and MACD are doing across the various indexes.

FS

FS

 

[Rogue]

Some notable top 50 from the AT:
SignStealer is 100% S fund, and kicking butt.
Birchtree's profile says he hasn't made an IFT since May 2011. That can't be right, can it?
wwwtractor remains 100% I fund (since February), this guy is hard to keep pace with, no?

Other notables:
Lucy with 55 IFTs already this year!
Klear with 40 IFTs!
Boghie is pretty evenly distributed with I fund his lowest holding at 10%, #500 on the AT. A thoughtful investor, I shoulda watched him sooner.



____________________________________________________________

Anyhow, sitting at #550 on the AT, I'm moving a little around today.
April sucked, and May has been kinda volatile but so far profitable.

____________________________________________________________

Today's IFT-

From: To:
G - 20% 10% (small safety net for now)
F - 10% 5% (I want out of F, but hate to sell low)
C - 35% 50% (This is where I think the value is right now, while the S&P500 is lagging a bit, these seem poised with stability)
S - 15% 25% (Maybe too late, and maybe buying high, but damn if I can resist this wave that's, hopefully still, brewing. Gambler's folly?)
I - 20% 10% (Europe gave this a boost this week, but Vlad the Masculine can wreak havoc with it by spinning a tank turret toward Ukraine it seems, then WhoTF k
knows about Asia)

 

[Rogue]

burrocrat just (5/19) went to 100% G.
A "gain a little, or a lot, every month" enthusiast, he's tricksy this one.

 

[Rogue]

Today's IFT-

From: To:
G - 10% 40%
F - 5% 0%
C - 50% 30%
S - 25% 20%
I - 10% 10%


Some notable top 50 from the AT:
SignStealer is 100% S fund, and STILL kicking butt at #21 on the AT.
wwwtractor still 100% I fund (since February) and # 74
Boghie is #472
Burrocrat @ #326 is all-in. All in the G fund!
JPCavin @ # 441 is: 30/45/25 (C/S/I) and 4.46% ytd.
I'm at #554 with 3.42% ytd.

Then there's this:

Your Personal Investment Performance (PIP) for the past 12 months ending 05/31/2015 is 9.33%.

Can't complain too much, but dang there was more opportunity than this in the past 12 mos.





____________________________________________________________




____________________________________________________________

 

[Rogue]

 

[Rogue]

Hmmm. Seems a ripe day to buy a little fear.
Today's IFT-

From: To:
G - 40% 22%
F - 0% 6%
C - 30% 37%
S - 20% 31%
I - 10% 4%

 

[Rogue]

Hmmm. Has your timing ever been just a little off?
Mine has.
Dammit.

Dear Rogue, please correct the IFT since you have already used 2 this month and can ONLY move into G fund from the others.

Apparently this means that so long as G increases, and the other funds only decrease, I can do some rebalancing.
But, for future reference, this is important to know.


Selling a bit of Greek optimism today.
Seems the Europeans are a bit happier.
I don't like this volatility that we've seen the past few weeks, when the mercury is >90 degrees. It makes humans act weird.

Today's IFT-

From: To:
G - 22% - 47% (nod to to the Mittster)
F - 6% - 5%
C - 37% - 22%
S - 31% - 23%
I - 4% - 3%

 

[Rogue]

OK, that one was well-timed. Not to be too heavy-handed with my own back patting.
Listening to the radio early AM, Europe was rallying and all indications until 11:30 looked like we were set to gain a bit, so I moved to what is likely my summer holding.

 

[Rogue]

Damn but today would be a good day to buy (move from G to C/S/I)!