Rod's Account Talk

[Rod]

Remember what I said about today's action...

So... don't get too excited when Mr. Market swings wildly (you should be used to that by now) in one direction or the other tomorrow. Why? Because tomorrow is Quadruple Witching. Read about it here:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-stocks-trading/quadruple-witching-may-spell-some-relief-to-stressed-stocks-idUSKBN21632W

 

[Rod]

My advice is to stay away for now. Manipulated wild swings lately. Pump-n-dumps.

Blue Apron (APRN) is on fire. It's a meal kit delivery service. I got in @ 11.30. A little late to the rally. But, it is moving higher from there.

 

[Rod]

Be careful out there... remember, it's a Quadruple Witching day.

Furthermore, as of now, WMT and COST are down 1.50% - 2%.

 

[fedgolfer]

If this decline was something other than a virus causing exogenous event , these levels would be a must buy considering all the Fed moves/Gov't stimuli/etc. But with Fauci intimating a much longer shelter in place/social distancing, and GS revising a -5% forecast to a -24% 2nd quarter forecast, there's going to a more lasting economic event even once the cases start to slow (perhaps as soon as next week for the US). Maybe one more staggered wave down? How long are you going to remain in the bear camp?

 

[Rod]

How long are you going to remain in the bear camp?

I've been camping with the bears since my IFT to (G) on 23 Dec 2019. Because this is unprecedented, I will continue to camp for the foreseeable future. Unless, of course, there is a dramatic 'bout face. But, that's not to say I won't attempt to catch an "extended" rally until the lows are retested.

 

[Rod]

Beware the ides of the Quad Witch. Especially in the final hour of trading.

 

[Rod]

Futures hit 5% limit down. Only took 5 minutes.

 

[Mcqlives]

Futures hit 5% limit down. Only took 5 minutes.

Yep...nothing was all that bad till Pelosi came out of the meeting this afternoon and said they were going to introduce their own bill. ig weekend had been about 300ish and went down 500 points right after.

 

[Rod]

Futures are slightly up on Fed action. But, we certainly cannot expect that to last.

 

[tom4jean]

Futures are slightly up on Fed action. But, we certainly cannot expect that to last.

We have to hope. This thing's got to hit a bottom sometime, getting to be ridiculous.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk

 

[Rod]

We have to hope. This thing's got to hit a bottom sometime, getting to be ridiculous.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk

Mr. Market doesn't care about our "hope."

Remember, Mr. Market still has to tread through Q1 earnings. Q1 earnings will likely be a bloodbath. The only thing that might be any saving grace is if those losses are already being priced in.

 

[tom4jean]

Mr. Market doesn't care about our "hope."

Remember, Mr. Market still has to tread through Q1 earnings. Q1 earnings will likely be a bloodbath. The only thing that might be any saving grace is if those losses are already being priced in.

Well that's quite true. I like to think that similar to world war II the recovery process will inspire a boom in production in our economy. I think all the problems with China being the main supplier of goods to the world is coming out in all it's glaring reality and will change the face of manufacturing in the United States.

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[Rod]

AGG is back above its 200-DMA of 111.72. Light volume, though... as of now.

 

[Rod]

"Senate Releases Updated Economic Relief Plan (CARES Act) for Individuals and Businesses"


"Recovery rebate for individual taxpayers.

The bill would provide a $1,200 refundable tax credit for individuals ($2,400 for joint taxpayers).

Unlike the previous version of the bill, the credit has no minimum qualifying income requirements and no phase-in (see Chart 1).

The rebate phases out at $75,000 for singles, $112,500 for heads of household, and $150,000 for joint taxpayers at 5 percent per dollar of qualified income, or $50 per $1,000 earned.

It phases out entirely at $99,000 for single taxpayers and $198,000 for joint taxpayers.

Additionally, taxpayers with children will receive a flat $500 for each child.

We estimate the rebate will decrease federal revenue by about $301 billion in 2020, according to the Tax Foundation General Equilibrium Model. This is higher than the previous credit design, as this credit is available to more people and offers a higher base amount for low-income households.

This credit is one-time, but policymakers might consider additional rebates if the downturn is prolonged."

Source: https://taxfoundation.org/cares-act-senate-coronavirus-bill-economic-relief-plan/

 

[Rod]

It sure doesn't sound like this bill will pass before the closing bell...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ns2POBYJtuw

 

[Boomer01]

The market seems to like the news. It’s recovering pretty well. Many on TV seem to think we get a short term rally then retest the lows again before any real recovery. But let’s face it, nobody really knows.

 

[Rod]

The market seems to like the news. It’s recovering pretty well. Many on TV seem to think we get a short term rally then retest the lows again before any real recovery. But let’s face it, nobody really knows.

It would seem that the market is not watching the debate. It is only reacting to that Schumer clip, and nothing more.

 

[Rod]

It would seem that the market is not watching the debate. It is only reacting to that Schumer clip, and nothing more.

Bill is blocked. Further down we go. It will be interesting to see how the day ends.

 

[nnuut]

Loading the Bill up with JUNK is typical, but it isn't right, it's LEFT!!

 

[weatherweenie]

Junk that benefits corporations vs individuals. That's right, not left.

Loading the Bill up with JUNK is typical, but it isn't right, it's LEFT!!