Rod's Account Talk

[Rod]

It's going to be an interesting "Guess The Dow 2020" contest this year!

https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/site-news-and-announcements/33670-guess-dow-contest-2020-a-6.html

 

[Boomer01]

I noticed it pretty much flatlined in the low 900's down when rumors of the fed buying paper began to circulate. I wonder if the fed fails to make an announcement before opening bell tomorrow if it will be a 2,000+ down day. Or if they do and this turns out to be a buy the rumor sell the news circumstance...

something must have been said at news conference. It erased most of those losses. Now down only 145. Was down 900 all weekend.

 

[Rod]

something must have been said at news conference. It erased most of those losses. Now down only 145. Was down 900 all weekend.

The Fed cut the Federal Funds rate 0.00% to 0.25%. Key lending rate is @ 0.00%. Dow (Weekend Futures) jumped +700 on the news.

 

[Tsunami]

Right back down to -950 just an hour later. Interest rates are meaningless to businesses that are getting no business, plus the bond and stock markets had already priced in the 1% Fed cut last week.

 

[Rod]

As of now I am relieved because stock futures have hit the limit down once again, declining 5%. But, as we all know, a lot can happen between now and closing bell.

Posted on Friday...

I abhor our noon cutoff time. I came really, really close to a 75 (G) 25 (S) IFT. Was logged into TSP.gov and ready to execute. But, I just couldn't go through with it once I saw the rally rapidly fading. I still sense that we will have some up days next week... thinking that Monday might be one of them with a stimulus package announcement either late today or over the weekend.

Will I regret that I did not make that IFT? Or will I be relieved?

We shall see.

 

[Rod]

Reportedly...

A clinical trial evaluating a vaccine designed to protect against the new coronavirus will begin Monday

The National Institutes of Health is funding the trial, which is taking place at the Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute in Seattle. The official who disclosed plans for the first participant spoke on condition of anonymity because the move has not been publicly announced.

Source: https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/government-official-coronavirus-vaccine-trial-starts-monday-69611096

 

[blueroadster]

Where did they acquire the two samples or even one?

 

[blueroadster]

Has China allowed the CDC or WHO access to the epicenter yet? Access was provided early during SARS which enabled containment.

 

[Rod]

To answer both of your questions... no idea. But, I thought I read somewhere recently that WHO was allowed to enter the country.

 

[Valkyrie]

Where did they acquire the two samples or even one?

Canada or China? pick.

https://greatgameindia.com/wuhan-institute-of-virology-epicentre-of-coronavirus/

https://greatgameindia.com/chinese-researchers-caught-stealing-coronavirus-from-canadian-lab/

or maybe it was Harvard?
https://greatgameindia.com/chinese-biowarfare-agents-at-harvard-university-caught-smuggling-viruses/

 

[Rod]

Italy's COVID-19 death rate is @ an alarming +7%.

As of now in Italy:

24,747 cases

1,809 dead

Our seasonal flu death rate is, on average, 0.1%.

*** 0.1% ***

The W.H.O.'s latest COVID-19 "Global" death rate is 3.4%.

Therefore, according to these stats, especially the W.H.O.'s, we simply cannot compare COVID-19 with the seasonal flu, as so many are recklessly doing.

COVID-19's mortality rate is much higher than the seasonal flu's mortality rate. Period.

 

[Whipsaw]

The average age in Italy is around 47, much greater part of the population at the higher end. USA is around 38. The death rates will differ based on concentration of elderly (more - higher; sadly).

 

[Mcqlives]

Blue Roadster...New England Journal of Medicine had a decent write up on COVID-19 and links to other, historical, articles concerning corono-virus. Over the past week I have seen lots of information trickling out of the think tank labs which is shedding light on this COVID-19. One thing to note, the size of this virus has also been published and it appears to be in the 80-120 nanometer range (plus or minus). Very interesting as most viruses are much smaller.

I agree that this can not be compared to typical flu strains... it seems to have longer viability on surfaces but also appears to be very weak and breaks down quickly when exposed to decon protocols. This is great news for our medical providers as long as they keep proper PPE and decon protocols in effect.

Please keep in mind that stats regarding mortality should be taken in context. For example, stats on total flu cases are estimated each year because a very small portion of individuals are ever tested for it. Opposite side is, for right now, almost all instances of COVID-19 being reported are tested. At some point there will be extrapolations based on population and the mortality percentage will go way down.

 

[Rod]

The average age in Italy is around 47, much greater part of the population at the higher end. USA is around 38. The death rates will differ based on concentration of elderly (more - higher; sadly).

USA's current COVID-19 death rate is @ 1.8%. Nearly double the seasonal flu death rate.

As of now in the USA:

3,782 cases

69 dead

 

[Rod]

The airlines have requested funding. American Airlines is currently up 1% in anticipation of the WH approving that funding. So, perhaps a quick profit can be made here.

 

[Rod]

WHEW! Sure glad I did not go through with that IFT!

As of now I am relieved because stock futures have hit the limit down once again, declining 5%. But, as we all know, a lot can happen between now and closing bell.

Posted on Friday...

I abhor our noon cutoff time. I came really, really close to a 75 (G) 25 (S) IFT. Was logged into TSP.gov and ready to execute. But, I just couldn't go through with it once I saw the rally rapidly fading. I still sense that we will have some up days next week... thinking that Monday might be one of them with a stimulus package announcement either late today or over the weekend.

Will I regret that I did not make that IFT? Or will I be relieved?

We shall see.

 

[Rod]

Man... when a bottom is finally put in, just imagine how much of a monster those rallies are going to be. Don't want to be on the sidelines then! We've got to be at least 30% down from the Dow's high. It will more than likely drop at least another 20%. Remember, it dropped 54% during 2007-2008. It could very well exceed that. I expect it to exceed that.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Now you have DBA really Dreamin! Ahhhh…. Monster Rallies!

PS Make sure to Kick Me if I'm asleep when that happens.... I want that dream to be real! :laugh: But alas... I must wait until April Fool's Day to enter.... hummm….but I will keep in mind that this is not a normal market sell off. Sounding more and more like the nation is shutting down for a few weeks.... unbelievable....

 

[Rod]

For those of you familiar with these inverse ETF's...

FAS 52-week low is 24.85. Today's close @ 24.86.

FAZ 52-week high is 59.88. Today's close @ 56.19.

It'll be interesting to see if they bust through their low and high.

 

[Rod]

Still sound far-fetched? It's entering the conversation now on CNBC.

Posted on 11 Mar:

Food for thought...

Might things get so bad with the spread of COVID-19 that trading halts altogether? Think 9/11. Trading was halted for 6 days. But, it could be longer this time around. Especially if the majority of "Wall Street" is sickened. Only time will tell.