Rod's Account Talk

[James48843]

Stock futures now over 5% down this morning:

[h=3]U.S. Stock Futures[/h][TABLE="class: wsod_dataTable, width: 200"]
[TR="class: wsod_futureQuote wsod_futureQuoteFirst"]
[TD]

S&P[/TD]
[TD="class: wsod_bold wsod_aRight, align: right"]-139.25 / -5.08%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Level[/TD]
[TD="class: wsod_bold wsod_aRight, align: right"]2,601.00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Fair Value[/TD]
[TD="class: wsod_bold wsod_aRight, align: right"]2,739.79[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Difference[/TD]
[TD="class: wsod_bold wsod_aRight, align: right"]-138.79[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: wsod_indexTimestamp, colspan: 2"]

Data as of 8:18am ET​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: wsod_futureQuote"]
[TD]

Nasdaq[/TD]
[TD="class: wsod_bold wsod_aRight, align: right"]-402.00 / -5.02%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Level[/TD]
[TD="class: wsod_bold wsod_aRight, align: right"]7,601.50[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Fair Value[/TD]
[TD="class: wsod_bold wsod_aRight, align: right"]8,004.60[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Difference[/TD]
[TD="class: wsod_bold wsod_aRight, align: right"]-403.10[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: wsod_indexTimestamp, colspan: 2"]

Data as of 8:17am ET​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: wsod_futureQuote"]
[TD]

Dow[/TD]
[TD="class: wsod_bold wsod_aRight, align: right"]-1,231.00 / -5.22%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Level[/TD]
[TD="class: wsod_bold wsod_aRight, align: right"]22,344.00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: wsod_indexTimestamp, colspan: 2"]

Data as of 8:18am ET​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

[Rod]

Shaping up to be another ugly day. There is no calling a bottom in this environment, and much too risky for the time being to play any bounce.

Stock futures now over 5% down this morning:

[h=3]U.S. Stock Futures[/h][TABLE="class: wsod_dataTable, width: 200"]
[TR="class: wsod_futureQuote wsod_futureQuoteFirst"]
[TD]

S&P[/TD]
[TD="class: wsod_bold wsod_aRight, align: right"]-139.25 / -5.08%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Level[/TD]
[TD="class: wsod_bold wsod_aRight, align: right"]2,601.00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Fair Value[/TD]
[TD="class: wsod_bold wsod_aRight, align: right"]2,739.79[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Difference[/TD]
[TD="class: wsod_bold wsod_aRight, align: right"]-138.79[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: wsod_indexTimestamp, colspan: 2"]

Data as of 8:18am ET​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: wsod_futureQuote"]
[TD]

Nasdaq[/TD]
[TD="class: wsod_bold wsod_aRight, align: right"]-402.00 / -5.02%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Level[/TD]
[TD="class: wsod_bold wsod_aRight, align: right"]7,601.50[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Fair Value[/TD]
[TD="class: wsod_bold wsod_aRight, align: right"]8,004.60[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Difference[/TD]
[TD="class: wsod_bold wsod_aRight, align: right"]-403.10[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: wsod_indexTimestamp, colspan: 2"]

Data as of 8:17am ET​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: wsod_futureQuote"]
[TD]

Dow[/TD]
[TD="class: wsod_bold wsod_aRight, align: right"]-1,231.00 / -5.22%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Level[/TD]
[TD="class: wsod_bold wsod_aRight, align: right"]22,344.00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: wsod_indexTimestamp, colspan: 2"]

Data as of 8:18am ET​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

[Rod]

CRAZY

 

[Boghie]

If this holds, this will be the worse trading day I have ever seen. Look at that AGG. Since that AGG money is not flowing to equity (see the C/S/I proxies) it must be going to cash. A true panic.

I saw two 8% declines in a row in 2008 - and bailed completely to the Lilly Pad. Might have to go Full Monty in this as well. I am now down 10.77% YtoD and about 14% peak to trough and only 50% in the market. I really don't like being less that 50% in the market and I really, really don't like locking in losses but a panic is a panic. If today holds at the -8% than I will be sitting at a -18% peak to trough. That is rough.

Ugh, nice moves on your part.

 

[Rod]

Man, what a slaughter. It even hurts watching it from (G).

(C) is now @ the 4 Jan 2019 level.

(S) is now @ the 16 Nov 2016 level.

Hang in there, folks. If you are able, it is time to drastically increase your payday contributions to (G) so you can be poised to buy in low when that bottom is finally in. This will help you to more quickly recover those losses during the recovery. Just make sure those payday contributions are indeed going to (G), and not into the other funds. Then sit on it until the bottom is in. That could be weeks or months from now because we will more than likely retest the S&P low... whatever that will be.

Remember what Tom said in Today's commentary:

"Looking at a chart from 2007 into 2008 when the last bear market was starting to get into gear, we saw a 35% decline start off one of the peaks in early September. Ouch! We got not one, but two 18% rallies off the lows in the coming weeks. The bear wasn't over, but a grab back of close to 50% of the current drop is not out of the question. The problem is it could give some the false impression that the worst is over, and as we saw in 2008, it wasn't."



Therefore, if we think the worst is over, meaning we believe the bottom is in (whenever that day comes), it may not be in at all. This one will be tricky indeed. Be careful out there.

God Bless :smile:

 

[Rod]

Although it is way too early, it is nice to see the futures pop'n green. Currently up +2.00%.

 

[Rod]

Although it is way too early, it is nice to see the futures pop'n green. Currently up +2.00%.

Looking good for one of those explosive rallies! This is the reason why I've been saying not to capitulate during this market panic. If my own past is any indication, when one does capitulate they miss the rally the very next day.

BTW, futures triggered the limit up.

 

[Rod]

Got this email this morning. I don't like the sound of it...

Dear TSP participant,

As the coronavirus situation evolves worldwide, we’re working hard to make sure that TSP operations continue normally, and that we’re able to continue to serve you.

We continue to process forms and requests.
TSP representatives are available to answer your questions.
You can access your account online through My Account.

This is a changing situation, and we will communicate with you as soon as possible if anything affects our operations.

Might our IFT's be limited even further?

Might TSP Ops shut down altogether if they get hit hard?

At this point, it's not far-fetched. Therefore, we must prepare ourselves for any such scenario that further limits our abilities to manage our accounts.

 

[Whipsaw]

Maybe they're worried about having to send their staff home, or a bunch calling in sick?

 

[Rod]

Maybe they're worried about having to send their staff home, or a bunch calling in sick?

Likely. But, then there won't be as many employees to process IFTs. Unless they have protocols in place to work from home. Then again, this is the gov. we are talking about.

 

[Whipsaw]

You would think the vast majority effort associated with IFTs is automated. Its probably more likely to affect TSP loans and the like.

 

[Rod]

You would think the vast majority effort associated with IFTs is automated. Its probably more likely to affect TSP loans and the like.

I was thinking the same. Maybe things have changed since the mid-late 2000's. Because back then they were complaining about the number of IFT's they had to process... thanks to us forumites at TSPTalk. Then they implemented the 2 IFTs a month rule.

 

[nasa1974]

Looking good for one of those explosive rallies! This is the reason why I've been saying not to capitulate during this market panic. If my own past is any indication, when one does capitulate they miss the rally the very next day.

BTW, futures triggered the limit up.

I don't want to see an explosive rally. Just a nice steady climb out of this pit of despair. An explosive rally usually has a large sell off the next day.

 

[Rod]

I don't want to see an explosive rally. Just a nice steady climb out of this pit of despair. An explosive rally usually has a large sell off the next day.

IMHO, we'll get that steady climb after a bottom has been put in and successfully retested... perhaps twice. In the meantime, +1,000 point swings in the DOW seem to be the norm.

My gut tells me that we will rally next week because we just might get a stimulus package over the weekend. Furthermore, the Fed meets next week (or sooner). But, I don't trust my gut enough to IFT into equities. At this point, it is still a 50/50 crap shoot. But, let's see if my gut was right. :usa2:

 

[Boghie]

Yeah, an explosive rally will be hard to catch.

If we get 1% or 2% growth for a few than we can catch it with a more 'risky' allocation - or, maybe swinging to 100% in C/S/I if that is your cup of tea. If it rebounds 7% for two days than we will lose much of that gain unless we went full speculation. The nice thing about this panic is that it has resulted in a 25% loss - so even three consecutive 7% rebound gains would leave a bit of growth on the table.

Still, three days of a nice 1% or 2% gains would be enough of a signal for those of us not in full speculation mode to get back to a decent allocation - and, we would catch a greater chunk of the growth than we lost. I'm going to go to my Aggressive Allocation if we have a few days of nice returns. So, I will be 75% in during a rebound while I was only 50% in during the downturn.

 

[Rod]

Looking good for one of those explosive rallies! This is the reason why I've been saying not to capitulate during this market panic. If my own past is any indication, when one does capitulate they miss the rally the very next day.

BTW, futures triggered the limit up.

Well, that didn't last long, did it?

Given the volatility, it just might return by 1400.

 

[Rod]

I abhor our noon cutoff time. I came really, really close to a 75 (G) 25 (S) IFT. Was logged into TSP.gov and ready to execute. But, I just couldn't go through with it once I saw the rally rapidly fading. I still sense that we will have some up days next week... thinking that Monday might be one of them with a stimulus package announcement either late today or over the weekend.

Will I regret that I did not make that IFT? Or will I be relieved?

We shall see.

 

[Happy_Trails]

Your timing has been excellent so far.

 

[Rod]

Now, it's been announced that President Trump will declare a National Emergency and the rally is gaining steam again. After I heard that while posting the previous comment, I immediately logged into tsp.gov again to IFT 75 (G) 25 (S) @ 1157. But, decided against it once again. Got to keep my "gut" out of this volatile environment.

 

[Rod]

Your timing has been excellent so far.

We shall see on Monday if I would've made a good call. I was really conflicted on this one.