Rod's Account Talk

[Rod]

So far, Mr. Market isn't trading wildly in either direction. We haven't seen this in quite some time. Makes one wonder if at least a temporary bottom is in?

 

[mdfiasco]

So far, Mr. Market isn't trading wildly in either direction. We haven't seen this in quite some time. Makes one wonder if at least a temporary bottom is in?

I jumped 20% back into C yesterday to take advantage of the cliff. We'll see what happens but I might start nibbling back in as this plays out over the coming weeks.

 

[Rod]

I jumped 20% back into C yesterday to take advantage of the cliff. We'll see what happens but I might start nibbling back in as this plays out over the coming weeks.

I just nibbled in on some FAS @ 23.17. Just wanted to buy some at these low prices and see where it goes today. It's been bouncing around this range. Going below it. Who knows how its day will end.

 

[mdfiasco]

I just nibbled in on some FAS @ 23.17. Just wanted to buy some at these low prices and see where it goes today. It's been bouncing around this range. Going below it. Who knows how its day will end.

I jumped into G back in early Feb. I'm ready to start taking advantage of these low prices. Picked up BX, ABC, AMZ, and MSFT yesterday at record lows..I'm happy.

 

[Rod]

I jumped into G back in early Feb. I'm ready to start taking advantage of these low prices. Picked up BX, ABC, AMZ, and MSFT yesterday at record lows..I'm happy.

Yep! Got to nibble in at these low prices. But, with the expectation that they may go lower because no one knows where the bottom is. But, as long as you continue to nibble, you will eventually hit the bottom with "nibble" being key.

 

[Rod]

I just nibbled in on some FAS @ 23.17. Just wanted to buy some at these low prices and see where it goes today. It's been bouncing around this range. Going below it. Who knows how its day will end.

FAS was in no way tracking 3x the S&P as it should have been! Therefore I sold @ 25.62. At least I made a little $$$ off of it the past couple of hours.

 

[Mcqlives]

Reminder...

Don't forget to track "Weekend Wall Street" to get a feel for how Monday might shape up:

https://www.ig.com/en/indices/markets-indices/weekend-wall-street

Interesting that the ig weekend wall street ticker keeps ticking as it does. Citing a -500ish chart as I type this.

 

[Rod]

As most of us already know, there have been no back-to-back positive days in the S&P 500 since 12 Feb.

When will the cycle be broken? When it finally does break, might that be a leading indicator? Not for a bottom, but for the first leg up... only to test the lows later?

 

[Rod]

One of my many stock picks during this fire sale in stocks:

Carnival (CCL) or (CUK)

CUK's high was $56.41. It was trading in the high $40's prior to COVID-19 hitting the cruise lines. It is now trading at $9.33 as of this post.

That is a huge discount. But. it will drop even further from $9.33. Therefore, I will wait a bit more until I buy.

This article puts things into perspective:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4332177-carnival-cruise-lines-bull-case-assuming-zero-2020-revenue

 

[Rod]

Blue Apron (APRN) is on fire. It's a meal kit delivery service. I got in @ 11.30. A little late to the rally. But, it is moving higher from there.

 

[Rod]

Blue Apron (APRN) is on fire. It's a meal kit delivery service. I got in @ 11.30. A little late to the rally. But, it is moving higher from there.

Sold @ 14.22. Nice 26% profit.

I'll see if I can play it again tomorrow!

 

[mdfiasco]

Sold @ 14.22. Nice 26% profit.

I'll see if I can play it again tomorrow!

I'm thinking most of the delivery services will see a healthy bump. Also, outlets are running out of computer monitors/chairs/home office equip. as so many people have switched to telecommuting, so there may be a bump in those markets. At least until the dinosaur bosses insist on butts in seats again.

 

[Rod]

Those of you who have been severely beaten down in the TSP need to begin piling up cash (aside from your TSP contributions) in order to buy stock at these fire sale prices. Because we don't know where the bottom will be, it is probably best to average down bit-by-bit. As of now, I don't plan to average down until after Q1 earnings (besides for AMZN, KR, WMT). The majority of stocks might take a severe beating with Q1 earnings. But, AMZN will likely blow it out of the water, along with WMT and KR.

These are some of the ones I am eyeing:

AMZN (Buy before Q1 earnings)
WMT (Buy before Q1 earnings)
KR (Buy before Q1 earnings)
ACAD
AAPL
NVDA
JPM
CUK
UAL
TSLA

Care to share yours with everyone?

 

[Rod]

Firstly, I did not intend for this post to be this long. Just sharing my thoughts as they came forth.

Man, AGG is down 9.72% since I exited (F) on 9 Mar. I just happened to exit (F) at its 52-week high. Although I continue to track its daily moves, I have no inclination to enter it anytime soon. I am still happily hibernating in (G) with a YTD return of -0.87%. I am thankful, to say the least. Especially since I also missed the 2007-2008 crash.
I am certainly no technical analysis guru, though. I just happen to have a keen sense about the sort of things that are around the corner... when I engage those senses. Of course, my senses were not engaged whatsoever during the Dec 2018 decline. I rode that sucker down, and then up without ever knowing it had occurred.
That's because I was a solid buy-n-holder at the time (2 Nov 2009 - 23 Dec 2019), just letting things ride. I had always told myself, what goes down must come up.

Then I began following the markets again when I heard the latest buzzword, Inverted Bond Yield. As I began following the markets, I developed a sense that it was soon due for a rest. I thought, why not try and preserve my 281% gain thus so far. That's when I decided to perform my first IFT in over 10 years on 23 Dec 2019.

And then comes the Coronavirus. I was following it very closely, especially the spread. As Mr. Market was making new highs, I was warning everyone on here to be careful. I said that this rally wasn't making any sense whatsoever given the coming global economic shock that COVID-19 was going to unleash. Of course, I didn't want to sound too cocky. Therefore, I simply continued with my warnings. You can read those posts from 23 Dec onward, beginning with this one:

I've been in a buy-n-hold of 60 (C) and 40 (S) for... can you believe it... over 10 years! (2 Nov 2009) Since then, (without any further contributions because I am retired) my account has gained 281%. That averages out to be 28% per year. Not too shabby for a buy-n-hold strategy.

Because I do not trust what 2020 has in store for Mr. Market, now is the time to bank those profits into (G). Therefore, effective 24 Dec 2019, I will be 100 (G).

In doing so, I may miss out on some more gains in this long-running Bull. But, I do fear it will soon come to an abrupt end. I missed the 2008 crash altogether. My plan is to miss the impending next one too, and then buy in low as I did in 2009.

And ending with these: on 23 Feb & 25 Feb

Remember, this market has been acting irrational towards COVID-19. The bottom line...

Global markets have yet to discount the COVID-19-related economic shock that will likely rock it in the coming months.

Be careful out there.

RIP Bull Market... You've been good to me these past 10+ years.

Keep your chin up. This too shall pass.

God Bless :smile:

 

[wahinepio]

Nice storyI'm crying. Happy for you and sad for me.

 

[Rod]

Nice storyI'm crying. Happy for you and sad for me.

Thank you. But, I'm sorry. I did not mean to upset you... or anyone else. I simply wanted to share my testimony, so to speak. If you got caught up in this mess, It will rebound. To new highs, in fact. :smile: If my mental state was being negatively affected by this mess, I would simply turn off all of the noise. I would not listen to any financial news or check my TSP balance until I heard it "on the streets" that we are well into the recovery phase. You might want to consider doing just that. :smile:

In the meantime, rev up your TSP contributions (if you are able) into the G Fund. Make sure they are going into (G), though. Then you will be positioned to allocate a huge chunk out to the other funds in due time. :fing02:

Hang in there. It's going to be alright.

 

[Whipsaw]

Rod, thanks! Glad you side stepped this one; I manage so sidestep the housing crisis... but not this one. You think C or S would have the best rebound? Rode S down, its been lagging the C... not a pretty picture, but hope to position correctly. Possibly a bottoming process going on now.

 

[Rod]

Rod, thanks! Glad you side stepped this one; I manage so sidestep the housing crisis... but not this one. You think C or S would have the best rebound? Rode S down, its been lagging the C... not a pretty picture, but hope to position correctly. Possibly a bottoming process going on now.

I nibbled in on most of those stocks I mentioned a few posts ago. They may be down tomorrow... and every other day thereafter. But, at least I am beginning to rebuild my portfolio.

Although (S) has the most to gain (just look at the bottom part of the auto tracker), I'll likely stick with what's worked for me in the past when I do eventually make an IFT: 60 (C) 40 (S). But, I won't do that to catch the inevitable rally that is due. I think I will wait until after the first retest of the lows after that inevitable ride back up.

Remember, don't let it trick you. Do not think we are out of the woods when that rally eventually takes off. Be on guard for that retest of the lows.

 

[Rod]

I nibbled in on most of those stocks I mentioned a few posts ago. They may be down tomorrow... and every other day thereafter. But, at least I am beginning to rebuild my portfolio.

And sold most of it by COB. Got cold feet.

 

[Rod]

So... don't get too excited when Mr. Market swings wildly (you should be used to that by now) in one direction or the other tomorrow. Why? Because tomorrow is Quadruple Witching. Read about it here:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-stocks-trading/quadruple-witching-may-spell-some-relief-to-stressed-stocks-idUSKBN21632W