Rod's Account Talk

[Rod]

And just like that... COVID-19 was no longer in the headlines.

Things will be get very interesting for Mr. Market. What's he to do now? We shall see!

 

[Rod]

Again, I recommend watching The Kendall Report every day before the market opens. He adds a lot of insight into what the market is doing:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6vHQSGmUvYI

 

[rangerray]

The Pivot Point channel seems to have gone quiet.

 

[rangerray]

Ahhh...just saw your comment in another thread.

I now say beware of this guy. It seems that he only posts "bearish" videos after a selloff. He likely does this in order to justify/bolster his bearish view. We haven't heard from him since 20 May... 1 day after the last selloff.

He is not consistent like Ira or Frank from Pivot Boss... to name a couple. Therefore, take what he says with a grain of salt. You know the old saying... even a broken clock is right twice a day.

 

[Rod]

Ahhh...just saw your comment in another thread.

Well, at least we were both thinking the same thing. You watch... there will be a video after the next selloff of 1% or more. Like I said earlier, the last selloff was on 19 May. Therefore, Mr. Market is due for some consolidation. So, we'll likely get a video from him very soon.

 

[rangerray]

Well, at least we were both thinking the same thing. You watch... there will be a video after the next selloff of 1% or more. Like I said earlier, the last selloff was on 19 May. Therefore, Mr. Market is due for some consolidation. So, we'll likely get a video from him very soon.

And, I was truly wanting to believe in the retest theory. Based on historical analysis, it makes sense to believe, but as we all know, this time seems different. Saying that leads me to recall Lance Roberts chastising folks who say, "This time is different," but I think it really can be different in the short term. Will the market go down? Sure it will. But, we don't know when. Like you say, a broken clock is wrong twice a day. Analysts are right eventually as well, sometimes it just takes a little longer.

 

[Rod]

And, I was truly wanting to believe in the retest theory. Based on historical analysis, it makes sense to believe, but as we all know, this time seems different. Saying that leads me to recall Lance Roberts chastising folks who say, "This time is different," but I think it really can be different in the short term. Will the market go down? Sure it will. But, we don't know when. Like you say, a broken clock is wrong twice a day. Analysts are right eventually as well, sometimes it just takes a little longer.

I was also onboard with the retest (at least happening sooner) until The Fed intervened the way they did. The saying, "You can't fight The Fed", seems to be ringing true. This is unfortunate.

 

[Rod]

Posted on 31 May:

And just like that... COVID-19 was no longer in the headlines.

Still not "headline news."

Must not have been as bad as the the MSM was making it out to be, huh? Who'd of thunk it? I'd a thunk it... and did thunk it.

The MSM will fire up its COVID-19 propaganda machine soon enough. In the meantime, it wouldn't surprise me one bit if the gov. concocted another quarantine in order to quell the protests/riots.

BTW, I don't question the validity of the virus. But, I did question the motive of the MSM's 24/7 coverage of it. Of course, American's became quickly burned out and "immune" to the constant news barrage. Not good for ratings! Unfortunately, the MSM is now profiting off of George Floyd's murder.

 

[Boghie]

I think the reports of 'The Black Death' were slightly exaggerated...

It did make for a great trading opportunity though. I missed a chunk of it by dismissing it's effect on the market, but when C/S/I recover I will be +5/6% over what I was. That will be nice.

Odd that 'the market' is not negatively reacting to the unrest. Don't know what to think of that. Other than the market is getting bored with reacting to short term news.

 

[Boghie]

Man, the G Fund is 'earning' 0.75%.

I've still got 13.5% of my assets in that pig. I guess I'll wait for the next 'End of the World' and get most of it back into the market...

 

[nasa1974]

Man, the G Fund is 'earning' 0.75%.

I've still got 13.5% of my assets in that pig. I guess I'll wait for the next 'End of the World' and get most of it back into the market...

At one time the "G" fund was earning 6-8%.

 

[nnuut]

At one time the "G" fund was earning 6-8%.

I remember that!!!

 

[Rod]

I remember that!!!View attachment 46325

Gone are the days of earning that penny about every fourth to sixth day. Now it takes 15 to 20 days.

 

[Boghie]

Truth,

But the G Fund is always about 0.25% over the Fed Fund rate - which is influenced by inflation.

We have no viable inflation and the Fed Fund Rate is dirt... The relative earnings of the G Fund after inflation is about the same. Just right now it is a checking account. Ugh.

 

[Rod]

Nice rally so far this week. Who knows how much longer it will last. If I was still in, my gut would be telling me to lock in those nice gains because sooner or later the profit taking will commence. But when is the question.

 

[Rod]

I've continued to compare what my previous buy-n-hold strategy YTD would have been with my current YTD return. Remember, before 24 Dec 2019, my allocation was 60 (C) and 40 (S).

My current YTD: 3.26%

If I had never made an IFT, and continued to hold 60 (C) and 40 (S), my current YTD would be: -3.65%

It can pay to buy-n-hold. That's why I was so successful with it from Nov 2009 to Dec 2019 (over 10 years!). During that time, my account gained 281%. On average, that's 28% annually.

Now, will that "buy-n-hold" YTD surpass my true YTD? I'll let you know when/if it does!

God Bless :smile:

 

[Boghie]

I've continued to compare what my previous buy-n-hold strategy YTD would have been with my current YTD return. Remember, before 24 Dec 2019, my allocation was 60 (C) and 40 (S).

My current YTD: 3.26%

If I had never made an IFT, and continued to hold 60 (C) and 40 (S), my current YTD would be: -3.65%

It can pay to buy-n-hold. That's why I was so successful with it from Nov 2009 to Dec 2019 (over 10 years!). During that time, my account gained 281%. On average, that's 28% annually.

Now, will that "buy-n-hold" YTD surpass my true YTD? I'll let you know when/if it does!

God Bless :smile:

Gotta watch the Maths Rod...

You are likely including your contributions.
And, as Einstein stated: 'Compound interest is the 8th wonder of the world.' Your growth spurs greater growth.
The math is actually kinda hard. However, the TSP site documents the compound 2010 - 2020 growth of C at 13.59%/year and the S at 13.08%/year
My guess is your account was right in that mix. A 13.5% average annualized return would be VERY hard to beat over 10 years. I bet NOBODY here - or anywhere - beat it.

However, I also don't think any of us would have stomached the volatility. We would have bailed and have locked in losses. Or, we would have droned it and had the wonderful luck to take a hammering just before retirement. A little active review and trading smooths things out and takes some risk off the table. I personally don't swing trade, but I do have a few allocations that let me sleep better dependent on what the market(s) are doing...

 

[Rod]

You are likely including your contributions.

Not so.

Because of planning for retirement, my last contribution was on 2 Apr 2009.

Without adding once red cent, my TSP account balance gained 281% during that more than 10-year period. It nearly tripled.

BTW, so there is no confusion, I am speaking about the monetary increase of my TSP balance over time... and not necessarily the YTD returns. I will post those YTD returns shortly.

 

[Rod]

A 13.5% average annualized return would be VERY hard to beat over 10 years. I bet NOBODY here - or anywhere - beat it.

I believe I did just that. Check my math... keeping in mind I am including the last two months of 2009 when I became a "buy-n-holder."

Nov-Dec 2009: 8.62%

2010: 21.16%

2011: -0.20%

2012: 17.14%

2013: 35.03%

2014: 11.24%

2015: -0.35%

2016: 13.84%

2017: 20.34%

2018: -6.36%

2019: 29.96%

It can be tricky averaging in that 8.62% I made from 3 Nov 2009 to 31 Dec 2009. So, I will leave it out. Without it, my average YTD return over this 10-year period is:

141.80% / 10 = 14.18% + How 8.62% would average into this.

 

[Boghie]

I believe I did just that. Check my math... keeping in mind I am including the last two months of 2009 when I became a "buy-n-holder."

Nov-Dec 2009: 8.62%

2010: 21.16%

2011: -0.20%

2012: 17.14%

2013: 35.03%

2014: 11.24%

2015: -0.35%

2016: 13.84%

2017: 20.34%

2018: -6.36%

2019: 29.96%

It can be tricky averaging in that 8.62% I made from 3 Nov 2009 to 31 Dec 2009. So, I will leave it out. Without it, my average YTD return over this 10-year period is:

141.80% / 10 = 14.18% + How 8.62% would average into this.

Amazing. If you are ever in Raleigh, NC I will buy you a meal, a beer or seven, and pick your brain. Frixxxx knows I'm good for it:laugh:

That additional point over either C or S is the benefit of a blended allocation. However, note that you earned 14.18% - not 28% (which is what fired off my smell test). Compound growth is a GREAT thang.

I used to have my numbers but my computer crashed late last year and I decided to just start my Quicken file from scratch rather than import the data. Still have the data, but there were some missing transactions. This way I can be religious about the accuracy of the data as it goes in. Regardless, I know I didn't make that return. From January 2004 through September 2019 I think my return was a little over 9% on average.