Rod's Account Talk

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LTJPFED said:
You are right Rod. And I'm still kicking myself in the ass for just sitting in G. I guess I should make an IFT today to S and just say the hell with it. I give up on trying to read this market. Being somewhat new to reading things I'm probably missing out anyway or I'm just reading things incorrectly. Just amazing that we are buying back into the markets not far from their highs instead of getting them when they were really down. That's what really pisses me off.
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Don't let my opinions sway you, but this is my reasoning for sitting in G...for now. I jumped into G on Feb 22 and saved myself from the cliff, then jumped back in w/ Rod week before last sometimes and jumped back out w/ no loss. Now I'm missing this climb. Got FOMO just like you. I'd like to reap this climb but I'm not gonna buy on an up-day, right? The last three months have proven (to me) the market is a racket (didn't we always know that?) Since Mar 23, the market has been driven 100% by Trumps tweets, the off-the-cuff statements by CNBC et al, and obvious pump and dump weeks... NONE of our metrics have made any sense since Mar 23. Show me a metric that has paid off. It is all upside down.

I hope most states reopen before memorial day weekend. I hope COVID cases spike like they should. People w/ disposable income will to go back to work, so they're not home bored spending money online for random things they want. I'm waiting for companies to dump their office leases after realizing 99% of tech workers can telecommute. Rent still isn't getting paid. I'm waiting for credit cards to file collections on those not receiving an income. I'm hoping for another soft cliff in the next 4 wks before jumping back in.

I could be so wrong and this wacky market has shown me I can be. I still feel (feel) we are only at a stoplight on the way down the hill.
 
You point out reasons I've been sitting in G. I typically am an optimist and can appreciate both sides of the coin so to speak. I really wanted to get in much earlier but just did not. I do have FOMO. Fortunately I'm doing some small investing on individual stocks so I'm trying to make a few bucks on that side of things. But I sure would like to get my retirement account back in action making money. So yeah I agree I want to get back in on down day not an up day. I just feel like this back and forth action continues to move higher and higher and we still sit here in G. Don't get me wrong at least we are not losing money. I moved most of mine over before the big drops in Feb. I moved most around the high in Feb so I'm pretty happy I've kept all of my gains from last year and the first part of the year. I have friends that are still trying to climb their way back up because they did not move anything and said the heck with it, it will come back. Of course they are looking better now with these gains but a few still are not there yet. I shouldn't be so picky and trying to time this thing right but I just want to make the best decisions for my money and my future.

I am not making a rash move as of right now but sure is tempting to get back in because FOMO. I keep trying to watch the key levels but hasn't helped me much....
 
LTJPFED said:
So yeah I agree I want to get back in on down day not an up day.
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But that's just it. Nowadays, we simply cannot predict what type of day we are getting in on. So much can happen (and does happen) within the last 4 hours of trading. Especially the last 10-15 minutes. We cannot make a decision based upon where Mr. Market is before our noon deadline. It's futile.
 
The trend is your friend, 'till its not. Watching for a departure from the trend would be a good indicator. Fed pumping is a good tail wind and may limit downside action. I fully expect a small dip in the next day or two, going to hold through it, unless it drops too far activating a stop (see my thread).
 
Bmoredunks said:
so based on the above does that mean you will jumping out when reach8ng 2954?
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I recommend that you watch the video when you have the time. But, basically he sees it as a breakout to the upside. But, don't know if he still feels that way. That was nearly 2 weeks ago. I posted it as an FYI.
 
Obviously, getting in on a down day and out on an up day is what we all want to achieve. But how many times have we fallen victim to the noon cutoff trap, whereas things are going great at the cutoff, only to end down by the close. Or buying in on what appears to be a down day, only to have a new high set by the close. Every now and then as I did yesterday with a small entry into the S Fund it plays to our advantage and gives us hope that we are beginning to understand. The sad thing is that whoever wrote the rules for TSP has certainly put its participants at a disadvantage. I guess the best thing we can do is to have a plan, stick to it and hope we have more wins than losses.

Have a great day! :rolleyes:
 
mdfiasco said:
Don't let my opinions sway you, but this is my reasoning for sitting in G...for now. I jumped into G on Feb 22 and saved myself from the cliff, then jumped back in w/ Rod week before last sometimes and jumped back out w/ no loss. Now I'm missing this climb. Got FOMO just like you. I'd like to reap this climb but I'm not gonna buy on an up-day, right? The last three months have proven (to me) the market is a racket (didn't we always know that?) Since Mar 23, the market has been driven 100% by Trumps tweets, the off-the-cuff statements by CNBC et al, and obvious pump and dump weeks... NONE of our metrics have made any sense since Mar 23. Show me a metric that has paid off. It is all upside down.

I hope most states reopen before memorial day weekend. I hope COVID cases spike like they should. People w/ disposable income will to go back to work, so they're not home bored spending money online for random things they want. I'm waiting for companies to dump their office leases after realizing 99% of tech workers can telecommute. Rent still isn't getting paid. I'm waiting for credit cards to file collections on those not receiving an income. I'm hoping for another soft cliff in the next 4 wks before jumping back in.

I could be so wrong and this wacky market has shown me I can be. I still feel (feel) we are only at a stoplight on the way down the hill.
Click to expand...


I think you may have left out a VERY big part of your assessment. I.E. the FED. It is true Trumps tweets play a major role in daily market moves but ever since the FED stepped in I have come to the conclusion that the charts are almost worthless and wall street and main street are totally disconnected. IMO unless you are looking at short term charts (and with 2 trades a month that is difficult), old school chart thinking has been over ruled by cheap money.

We all know when Bernanke started QE the market went on the longest bull run in history. What he and Yellen pumped with QE is nothing compared to what Powell is doing now. IMO what the FED does has much more affect on the market since there is such a disconnect between wall and main street, than what the Pres does or tweets (mostly in the long run). It was Powell that started the market going down with tappering and rate increase and it was Powell that started the big run last year with the initial Powell put. It was also Powell that increased the REPO market stuff in in Oct last year which made the market push on to all time highs even when Trump would tweet good or bad things about the China trade.

Now that Powell has pretty much said the printing presses will run with no stopping date, I wonder the out come. It took a few months from late 2008 to early 2009 when QE started for the market to turn around an begin its historic run. What "if" a treatment is found and the Fed keeps pumping? To be honest this all sucks because I'm a few years from retirement and I hate playing games. I was perfectly happy to make 2-3% jumping in and out without gambling it full time but they took that away now since the G fund is nothing more than a mattress.
 
ravensfan said:
Obviously, getting in on a down day and out on an up day is what we all want to achieve. But how many times have we fallen victim to the noon cutoff trap, whereas things are going great at the cutoff, only to end down by the close. Or buying in on what appears to be a down day, only to have a new high set by the close.
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Exactly. Which is why that strategy does not work in the current market environment unless we just happen to get lucky. Our TSP trading options are severely handicapped. If they are going to limit our IFTs, at least make the closing bell our IFT cutoff time. But of course, that will never happen.

The TSP simply is not a productive investment vehicle for folks who are not buy-n-holders.

BTW, do you notice that Wall Street Lunchtime Slump?
 
Rod said:
BTW, do you notice that Wall Street Lunchtime Slump?
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Yes I do and often times wonder if our noon cutoff is not partially the reason it happens. I have noticed that most people at this site submit their IFT as close to the cutoff as possible and think that happens throughout. Your thoughts???
 
ravensfan said:
Yes I do and often times wonder if our noon cutoff is not partially the reason it happens. I have noticed that most people at this site submit their IFT as close to the cutoff as possible and think that happens throughout. Your thoughts???
Click to expand...

Nah... we don't have that much pull in the market. I wish we did, though! :D
 
[h=1]Thrift Savings Plan[/h]From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) is a defined contribution plan for United States civil service employees and retirees as well as for members of the uniformed services. As of December 31, 2018, TSP has approximately 5.5 million participants (of which approximately 3.3 million are actively participating through payroll deductions), and more than $558 billion in assets under management;[SUP][1][/SUP] it is the largest defined contribution plan in the world. The TSP is administered by the Federal Retirement Thrift Investment Board, an independent agency.
The TSP is one of three components of the Federal Employees Retirement System (FERS; the others being the FERS annuity and Social Security) and is designed to closely resemble the dynamics of private sector 401(k) and Roth 401k plans (TSP implemented a Roth option in May 2012). It is also open to employees covered under the older Civil Service Retirement System (CSRS) but with far fewer benefits (mainly the lack of matching contributions).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thrift_Savings_Plan
 
Still... I doubt that we have enough pull to move the market.

BTW, get ready for the FOMC minutes...
 
Also, our IFTs can in no way affect noon time market activity because they do not become effective until after midnight.
 
The transactions take place at the close of business prices and I would think those orders to "buy / sell at the close" are seen by people who get that info (level II type of quotes). That's probably why we have the long delay from noon until 4 PM, so these transaction can be tallied and placed by the close.

Not that I like that, but I believe that's how it happens, and my guess is someone is taking advantage of these orders at the close (front running), especially if our premium services send out alerts and we have a mass move into a particular fund. Blackrock knows they are coming and that is some very good info for them.
 
This is a momentum-driven market right now and the trend is up. Fundamentals will matter eventually, so stay with the trend until that happens. Still, I'm more in preservation mode right now because of the short amount of time I have before retiring. I'm mainly looking for opportunities to take advantage of the trend, with full knowledge that I could be disrupted by a tweet or a news item.

Capture.jpg
 
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