Rod's Account Talk

[oceanminded18]

BTW, (compared with yesterday) today we made higher lows and higher highs across the Dow, S&P, and Naz.

Just an observation.

Today there was also significantly more volume on the sell side than there was on the buying. Not sure how that compares to yesterday but an observation.

 

[Rod]

Today there was also significantly more volume on the sell side than there was on the buying. Not sure how that compares to yesterday but an observation.

IMHO, it was not significantly more volume.

Declining volume was about 20% more than advancing volume. But yes, there was indeed more declining volume than there was advancing volume.

 

[Rod]

I realize that "market gurus" are a dime a dozen on YouTube. But, give this guy a listen. I think you'll like his unemotional, common sense approach. Essentially, he says that the S&P 500 has an upside range of 2920. If it can break above that, then expect further upside. But, if the S&P 500 breaks below 2802, then expect a downside range of 2744-2708... with 2675 being the extreme case.

Analysis for today:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9cqL7rptuTY&t=205s

Analysis prior to yesterday's open:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S6bW3_-RRiY

His S&P 500 Live Technical Analysis with Q&A from yesterday:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5z-fjdWI7E

God Bless :smile:

P.S. I might be taking (the hopeful) profits today and heading to either (F) or (G). I'll have to see how the morning shakes out.

 

[Rod]

In case you miss it, I added this link to my previous post:

His S&P 500 Live Technical Analysis with Q&A from yesterday:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5z-fjdWI7E

 

[Rod]

Posted earlier this morning...

P.S. I might be taking (the hopeful) profits today and heading to either (F) or (G). I'll have to see how the morning shakes out.

Tomorrow's pre-market Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate reports could be one for the record books. But, if they come in under estimates, then expect Mr. Market to rally. If they meet expectations, then expect more of the same that we have recently experienced. But, if they fall short of expectations, then who knows how Mr. Market will react. Too much uncertainty for me.

Therefore...

Effective COB: 100 (F)

God Bless :smile:

 

[mdfiasco]

If the numbers are not one for the record books, I call shenanigans. Books will have been cooked.

 

[Happy_Trails]

Posted earlier this morning...



Tomorrow's pre-market Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate reports could be one for the record books. But, if they come in under estimates, then expect Mr. Market to rally. If they meet expectations, then expect more of the same that we have recently experienced. But, if they fall short of expectations, then who knows how Mr. Market will react. Too much uncertainty for me.

Therefore...

Effective COB: 100 (F)

God Bless :smile:

Thanks for posting before the deadline. It should be a big day tomorrow either way but tough to call. By gut says up.

 

[Rod]

Recap of my 70 (C) and 30 (S) IFT (exercising the 3-5 day confirmation rule) prior to moving it all to (F):

30 Apr: With a TSP annual return of -0.75%, I moved from 100 (G) to 70 (C) and 30 (S).

1 May: TSP annual return @ -3.74%. Huge hit right out of the gate. Just my luck.

4 May: TSP annual return @ -3.28%

5 May: TSP annual return @ -2.34%

6 May: TSP annual return @ -2.91%

Today: TSP annual return @ -1.50%.

Today: Initiated an IFT for 100 (F).

1.50 - 0.75 = 0.75.

Therefore, I only need to make up 0.75% in order to "break even" and get back to where I was on 30 Apr. This is why I went with 100 (F) today instead of 100 (G). It would take forever to make that up in (G).

Now, would I have made that up... and then a whole lot more tomorrow? Maybe. But, I was not willing to take that gamble on the heels of the nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate reports.

God Bless :smile:

 

[Rod]

Now, would I have made that up... and then a whole lot more tomorrow? Maybe. But, I was not willing to take that gamble on the heels of the nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate reports.

God Bless :smile:

And, there you have it.

Congrats to those who profited from today's action. :fing02:

 

[oceanminded18]

And, there you have it.

Congrats to those who profited from today's action. :fing02:

The FOMO is real right now....Powell is planning to speak on the economy next Wed, will he talk about dropping interest rates negative...will the market surge from another potential announcement from the Fed. I've been waiting on a dip to go back in but maybe next week will give another bump. (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/p...y-next-wednesday-2020-05-08?mod=mw_latestnews)

 

[mdfiasco]

And, there you have it.

Congrats to those who profited from today's action. :fing02:

This week made no sense to me. I am confounded.

 

[Rod]

This week made no sense to me. I am confounded.

I believe the trader's mantra for 2020 (and onward) will be, "Don't Fight The Fed."

 

[Rod]

One thing about Monday is that there is not a lot on the economic calendar. Just the NAHB home builders index @ 0830. As for earnings, look at the below link to see if you believe any of the "Before Bell" will significantly impact Monday's market. Don't forget to look at "After Bell" earnings for today that might affect Monday's open- although I don't see any that would. BTW, click on "Reporting" to sort them "Before Bell" and "After Bell."

https://stocktwits.com/discover/earnings-calendar/2020-05-18

Of course, as usual, weekend headlines will likely drive Monday's market in either direction.

BTW, the S&P 500 has gained 1.90% overall the last few Mondays dating back to 27 Apr. There have been no S&P 500 losses on those 3 Mondays. But then again, so far this has been the worst week for the market in 2 months. Therefore, that tide could very well change. We shall see!

For now, I remain 100 (F).

God Bless :smile:

 

[rangerray]

I read this earlier and it pretty much holds true for the S Fund as well. I'm glad I stayed in S through the weekend. Monday, I'll go back to fretting over it again.

 

[Rod]

I read this earlier and it pretty much holds true for the S Fund as well. I'm glad I stayed in S through the weekend. Monday, I'll go back to fretting over it again.

Next week could be a good week because of some heavy hitters reporting earnings:

 

[Rod]

My Saturday afternoon...

 

[Rod]

Because of my last couple of posts (earnings, in particular), I've been contemplating all weekend about making an IFT. Our deadline makes these decisions very difficult. But, I am leaning toward 100 (C) or 100 (S).

 

[rangerray]

I'm sure glad I stayed in S over the weekend. What a freakin' open!!

 

[Rod]

I'm sure glad I stayed in S over the weekend. What a freakin' open!!

Good move on your part!

 

[Rod]

Because of my last couple of posts (earnings, in particular), I've been contemplating all weekend about making an IFT. Our deadline makes these decisions very difficult. But, I am leaning toward 100 (C) or 100 (S).

If today's rally holds, will there be profit-taking or follow-through tomorrow? That's why it is usually a 50/50 crap shoot nowadays. But, tomorrow HD and WMT reports earnings that could assist with a follow-through. Both of these will report tomorrow before the bell. One thing though, HD is nearing its 52-week high... about 0.28 away from it as I write this. If it has a great report, there could be some profit-taking. WMT is still about $7 from its 52-week high.