Rod's Account Talk

[Rod]

However, note that you earned 14.18% - not 28% (which is what fired off my smell test).

That was a lack of clarification on my part... speaking about the monetary gains, itself. At least 281% is the percentage gain when I put both figures into this percentage gain calculator:

Percentage Gain Calculator - Calculate the percentage of increase/decrease between two units

And BTW, you still need to give me credit for the 8.62% gained in Nov-Dec 2009. Since I can't count that as an annual return, care to calculate that into 14.18%?
:biggthumpup:

Although I earned 8.62% as a buy-n-holder during Nov-Dec 2009, my annual return for 2009 was 4.95%.

BTW, that year, I was down as much as -9.28% on my tracker... before I initiated my buy-n-hold strategy. When I initiated it, I was down -3.38%.

Maybe you can make heads and tails of my 2009 Tracker? I've bolded my YTD's and when I became a buy-n-holder @ 60 (C) and 40 (S). Look at those share prices!

My Return
Fund Price Fund Allocation (%) Fund Returns - (Incr/Dec) 20% in Return Return
Trans Start Date End Date G F C S I G F C S I G F C S I Each Period Year

Closing 2008 Price 12.7406 12.5807 10.4343 12.2069 14.2550

1 02-Jan-09 20-Feb-09 12.7830 12.5108 8.9417 10.4275 11.6625 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.33% -0.56% -14.30% -14.58% -18.19% -9.46% 0.33% 0.33%

2 23-Feb-09 03-Mar-09 12.7936 12.4572 8.0899 9.3843 10.5950 0% 0% 30% 0% 70% 0.08% -0.43% -9.53% -10.00% -9.15% -5.81% -9.27% -8.96%

3 04-Mar-09 10-Mar-09 12.8007 12.4139 8.3678 9.7202 10.8077 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0.06% -0.35% 3.44% 3.58% 2.01% 1.75% -0.35% -9.28%

4 30-Oct-09 02-Nov-09 13.0559 13.3610 12.3112 14.8970 17.9044 90% 0% 10% 0% 0% 1.99% 7.63% 47.13% 53.26% 65.66% 35.13% 6.51% -3.38%

5 31-Dec-09 13.1195 13.3347 13.2177 16.4609 18.5372 0% 0% 60% 40% 0% 0.49% -0.20% 7.36% 10.50% 3.53% 4.34% 8.62% 4.95%

 

[Boghie]

Man, don't get greedy here - that would be some ugly math

I kinda think this proves the actual benefit of a Buy-N-Hold strategy though - doesn't it. Had I just camped in your 60/40 allocation I would be $280K richer in my TSP. On the other hand, just those five return dates you posted for 2009 lead me to think that I would have bailed out of the 60%/40% C/S holdings and into something safer. Then, you have to time your way back in. Would I. I did, but I cannot guarantee I can always make that move.

Most folks panic sell near the bottom and are too scared to get back in on the other side of the bottom. They lock in their losses and miss out on the gains. I think that is why I have become an 'active' trader with allocations. It keeps me in the market but smooths out the variance. That concept doesn't help me with the annual TSP AutoTrader competition though .

I do think I am going to spend some time and look at my IFTs in 2013 and 2016 to see why I under-performed. I think that the G Fund is killing me. I think I'm going to add a bit more risk to all three allocations. With that risk comes the reward.

 

[Rod]

Man, don't get greedy here - that would be some ugly math

I kinda think this proves the actual benefit of a Buy-N-Hold strategy though - doesn't it. Had I just camped in your 60/40 allocation I would be $280K richer in my TSP. On the other hand, just those five return dates you posted for 2009 lead me to think that I would have bailed out of the 60%/40% C/S holdings and into something safer. Then, you have to time your way back in. Would I. I did, but I cannot guarantee I can always make that move.

Most folks panic sell near the bottom and are too scared to get back in on the other side of the bottom. They lock in their losses and miss out on the gains. I think that is why I have become an 'active' trader with allocations. It keeps me in the market but smooths out the variance. That concept doesn't help me with the annual TSP AutoTrader competition though .

I do think I am going to spend some time and look at my IFTs in 2013 and 2016 to see why I under-performed. I think that the G Fund is killing me. I think I'm going to add a bit more risk to all three allocations. With that risk comes the reward.

I became a buy-n-holder during that time because I was prepping for my Iraq deployment. Look at post #870:

https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/members-account-talk/349-rods-account-talk-73.html

Of course, it's difficult to actively manage investments during deployment. I saw that I was doing so well as a buy-n-holder that I just let it ride without looking back. I did follow the market during those 10 years, but not as close as I follow it now. Just enough to get a feel for what's happening. You can even ask Tom and the other mods on here- I was essentially AWOL on TSPTalk during that time. I would pop in from time to time, though. But, that was only a couple times or so a year just to provide an update on my allocation. There's always that chance I might buy-n-hold again. But, I don't plan on it being another 10 years.

 

[wahinepio]

Thank you for your brave service, Rod

 

[LTJPFED]

Again, I recommend watching The Kendall Report every day before the market opens. He adds a lot of insight into what the market is doing:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6vHQSGmUvYI

Rod not sure if you checked out this mornings video but probably good to do. He will be posting some more information regarding his theory on Sunday night as well. Honestly I'm excited about the possibilities of that pull back. Now just have to move some funds in my personal equities account. He helped me get some good earning the last couple weeks in my TD account. I like this guy and think he has some good insight.

 

[Rod]

SURPRISE... SURPRISE... SURPRISE... on the May jobs reports!

Instead of an estimated loss of 8M, 2.5M jobs were added!

 

[Rod]

Thank you for your brave service, Rod

Thank you for your support! We could not have done it without supportive folks such as yourself. :smile:

 

[Rod]

Rod not sure if you checked out this mornings video but probably good to do. He will be posting some more information regarding his theory on Sunday night as well. Honestly I'm excited about the possibilities of that pull back. Now just have to move some funds in my personal equities account. He helped me get some good earning the last couple weeks in my TD account. I like this guy and think he has some good insight.

I am glad you find his insights helpful. I am continuing to watch/test him before I make any moves based upon his insights/system. So far, he seems rather rock-solid.

BTW folks, we are talking about The Kendall Report. You can usually wake up to a new report every morning before the opening bell:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vf0Jv2ASfuQ

 

[Tsunami]

Rod not sure if you checked out this mornings video but probably good to do. He will be posting some more information regarding his theory on Sunday night as well. Honestly I'm excited about the possibilities of that pull back. Now just have to move some funds in my personal equities account. He helped me get some good earning the last couple weeks in my TD account. I like this guy and think he has some good insight.

You motivated me to finally watch a Kendall Report video. Thanks. That last part about the bond market lines up perfectly with a commentary yesterday by Michael Gayed. He thinks the bond market is about to "crash", followed by a big stock market drop. I wouldn't dismiss what he's thinking since he called the March low and the subsequent huge rally perfectly.

https://seekingalpha.com/author/michael-a-gayed-cfa#regular_articles

 

[Rod]

Aside from what we are discussing here, I would not allow FOMO to get me and chase after Mr. Market. It might be tempting to do that today, especially after its knee-jerk reaction to the Jobs Report stunner. Remember, we are now up +40% from the lows. A consolidation is due. Therefore, be very careful.

 

[Boghie]

Aside from what we are discussing here, I would not allow FOMO to get me and chase after Mr. Market. It might be tempting to do that today, especially after its knee-jerk reaction to the Jobs Report stunner. Remember, we are now up +40% from the lows. A consolidation is due. Therefore, be very careful.

Rod, wasn't what we went through actually a consolidation?

Personally, I think the market was overheated before The Black Death of 2020, but who knows. What I do know is that this market has added risk - and thus opportunity - to my current allocation. I am going to be about 5% or 6% more out of G/F than when I moved in. Gotta take a peek at that.

 

[Rod]

Rod, wasn't what we went through actually a consolidation?

Brain fart... wrong term.

Clarification...

A correction of at least 10% is due. That's just my opinion, though. I'm sure Mr. Kendall (from The Kendall Report) is expecting a steeper decline. He'll get into that on Sunday.

 

[Boghie]

Brain fart... wrong term.

Clarification...

A correction of at least 10% is due. That's just my opinion, though. I'm sure Mr. Kendall (from The Kendall Report) is expecting a steeper decline. He'll get into that on Sunday.

I'll give him a watch.

I'm not being picky about terms or whatever. I just think that Mr. Market has already corrected. It was waiting for a dumb excuse to wash the speculators out of the system. Remember, for about 1 day oil was actually trading at -$14/barrel. That means, the oil traders gave you $14 bucks to take it off their hands. This was a washout panic. You get awesome rebounds after panic sales.

Question is: When is the market frothy again? And, is that froth tradable?

 

[Rod]

I just think that Mr. Market has already corrected.

I'm simply expecting some selling after this +40% rally, and believe it will lead to a 10% or greater decline.

"You may be right
I may be crazy
But it just may be a lunatic you're looking for"

 

[Rod]

What will happen after 1500?

Fade into the close?

Push into the close?

Place your bets...

 

[flalaw97]

Slide into just above 27,000 for the Dow

 

[Boghie]

What will happen after 1500?

Fade into the close?

Push into the close?

Place your bets...

If it frowns, I will run...
If it smirks, I will watch it Monday...
If it smiles, I will enjoy a nice weekend...

Late Moves, Smart Moves

EDIT: I think it will smirk. We have recovered from the panic, now the market will behave normally. That is my guess.

 

[Rod]

I think it will fade...

Dow: Below 27,000

S&P: Below 3,170

Naz: Below 9,800

Then again, what do I know?

 

[nnuut]

We have just been JINXED!

 

[Rod]

We have just been JINXED!View attachment 46349

Still have 45 min to go...