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Rod's Account Talk
- Thread starter Rod
- Start date
Rod
Well-known member
Percentages down since last Thursday, 20 Feb:
DOW: -4.75%
S&P: -4.78%
NAZ: -6.16%
Although a "relief rally" may come tomorrow, continue to be careful out there. The worst COVID-19 "headlines" are by no means behind us. Even if we technically get that 5% pullback in the S&P tomorrow, I will remain hesitant to dive into (C) & (S) because a correction could be in the cards.
When I IFT'd out of (C) and (S) on 23 Dec, these were their respective share prices:
47.1444
56.3118
They are now at:
47.3163
56.8087
My goal has always been to buy in lower than where I exited. Will that come tomorrow? Wednesday? At all this week? As I've said before, if/when it does fall below my exit prices, the most difficult decision will then be when to decide to IFT back into (C) and (S). Because I would certainly hate to IFT when a correction is on the table. On the other hand, there are so many uncertainties with COVID-19, especially the Global Supply Chain. Therefore, it might be wise just to sit this entire thing out. But, that would mean remaining out of (C) and (S) for months. I did that in 2008-2009 and completely missed The Great Recession. Decisions, decisions.
God Bless :smile:
DOW: -4.75%
S&P: -4.78%
NAZ: -6.16%
Although a "relief rally" may come tomorrow, continue to be careful out there. The worst COVID-19 "headlines" are by no means behind us. Even if we technically get that 5% pullback in the S&P tomorrow, I will remain hesitant to dive into (C) & (S) because a correction could be in the cards.
When I IFT'd out of (C) and (S) on 23 Dec, these were their respective share prices:
47.1444
56.3118
They are now at:
47.3163
56.8087
My goal has always been to buy in lower than where I exited. Will that come tomorrow? Wednesday? At all this week? As I've said before, if/when it does fall below my exit prices, the most difficult decision will then be when to decide to IFT back into (C) and (S). Because I would certainly hate to IFT when a correction is on the table. On the other hand, there are so many uncertainties with COVID-19, especially the Global Supply Chain. Therefore, it might be wise just to sit this entire thing out. But, that would mean remaining out of (C) and (S) for months. I did that in 2008-2009 and completely missed The Great Recession. Decisions, decisions.
God Bless :smile:
Mcqlives
Active member
Thanks for the reminder "(C) and (S) on 23 Dec, these were their respective share prices:" I don't look at the share prices nearly enough. Many years ago a buddy of mine did that and I looked at the data points/trends. Between the two of us we made a killing "day trading" on TSP. But with daily moves it was pretty easy even with the higher volatility which was much more common back then.
I agree with you about the headlines...things have been under and falsely (fed to our press by the Chinese press) reported. Now that the spread is occurring in "open" press countries we will hopefully have a better understanding of this virus's potential to cause harm. That said, I pray the Chinese reports have been and are accurate. That would be a great thing...But so far I just can't bring myself to believe them.
As for the market "Guru's"...I have lost so much respect for them during the past several weeks. I brought up the fact that the portion of China that is effectively quarantined is a huge manufacturing/transportation hub weeks ago. Even idiot me knew the supply chain was going to be effected yet the so called experts didn't see it coming till last night? They just let the market soar to highs while saying nothing is wrong with the US markets?!?!? If this continues someone at the FTC needs to look at the shorts and margins on this one cause tons of 401k holders will get it in a real bad way. Whiskey-Tango-Foxtrot for sure!
I agree with you about the headlines...things have been under and falsely (fed to our press by the Chinese press) reported. Now that the spread is occurring in "open" press countries we will hopefully have a better understanding of this virus's potential to cause harm. That said, I pray the Chinese reports have been and are accurate. That would be a great thing...But so far I just can't bring myself to believe them.
As for the market "Guru's"...I have lost so much respect for them during the past several weeks. I brought up the fact that the portion of China that is effectively quarantined is a huge manufacturing/transportation hub weeks ago. Even idiot me knew the supply chain was going to be effected yet the so called experts didn't see it coming till last night? They just let the market soar to highs while saying nothing is wrong with the US markets?!?!? If this continues someone at the FTC needs to look at the shorts and margins on this one cause tons of 401k holders will get it in a real bad way. Whiskey-Tango-Foxtrot for sure!
Rod
Well-known member
Yeah... a lot of us old timers on the forums used to day trade those prices when we had unlimited IFT's. We at TSPTalk are pretty well the reason why IFT's are now limited to 2x a month. The more popular TSPTalk became back in the day, the more IFTs were being processed on a daily basis. We kept them folks quite busy! :ban:
Rod
Well-known member
Well, I certainly can't take it for granted. I will be keeping a keen eye on those bond yields to determine when I need to exit and then likely head to (G). The 10-Year is hitting an all-time low yet again. I just keep wondering if we are headed for a true correction? If the current trend continues, then the S&P will close the day down +6% since last Thursday.
Getting clobbered again today. It comes to a point that you have to ride it all the way down in order to ride the wave back up. The problem becomes when you finally get off the dying horse then you are afraid to get back on and miss out on a large portion of the rising market. I hate the idea, but I can stomach a 10% loss in order to ride up 20-30% when it takes off again. But if it continues to get deeper in the hole I will have to bale. My plan is to hopefully move from 50/50 C/S to 100% S soon.
Rod
Well-known member
I completely understand. I rode every up and down from Nov 2009 to 23 Dec 2019. For 10 years I was a buy-n-holder, averaging 28% annually. Sometimes you just have to turn off the news (as I did) and then revisit every few months.
Rod
Well-known member
Well, I've met my goal.
(C) now stands @ 45.8850
(S) now stands @ 54.9000
They have not been at these levels since 10-11 Dec 2019. Essentially, if I would have IFT'd back into (C) and (S) today, then I would have bought at an approximately 3.39% discount... compared to when I exited. But, I sense that Mr. Market will give up at least that much more before we hit a bottom.
I could be wrong, but I have a feeling there will be a successful relief rally tomorrow, followed by more selling either on Friday or next Monday. Therefore, how much might we rally before the selling once again commences? I have no idea. This is why I said before that it will be extremely difficult deciding when to IFT back into (C) or/and (S).
- Bond yields remain inverted.
- Dow Transports is down 7.40% these past 5 days.
- The Dow is below its 200-DMA.
- The S&P 500 is below its 100-DMA.
- The Naz is below its 50-DMA.
Those aren't very good signs moving forward. Therefore, I shall remain extremely cautious.
God Bless :smile:
Rod
Well-known member
I realize a lot of you have been beaten up these past couple of days. I've been there in the past... and took the beatings myself. It hurts. But you must admit, as I've been saying for quite some time now, Mr. Market had been acting irrationally in light of COVID-19... making new highs during the commencement of the outbreak. It made no sense whatsoever. Mr. Market's unconcerned sentiment during the time certainly became a concern for myself (and others). Now, here we are. I'm afraid to say that (IMHO) this is just the tip of the iceberg.
Ahead of us is Q1 earnings, which will be widely beaten down. Ahead of us is likely a slowdown in the global economy. Ahead of us is likely a global supply chain interruption. Ahead of us are (at least) pockets of outbreaks within the USA, to likely include the first COVID-19 deaths in the USA. We cannot time this thing. That is out the window.
But, will we have "relief rallys" along the way? Sure will. And one might come today. Are we going lower from here? IMHO, most certainly.
- Keep an eye on the bond yields
- Keep an eye on the bond yields
- Keep an eye on the bond yields
Remain vigilant, and be careful out there.
God Bless :smile:
Happy_Trails
Active member
Hello - what are you watching for in terms of the bond yields?
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