Rod's Account Talk

[Rod]

Please keep in mind...

At this point, according to the futures, tomorrow might be looking like another bloodbath to some of you. But, if the past is any indicator, the futures haven't meant squat lately. The only thing that matters tomorrow is the closing bell. In the meantime, let's hope for that overdue relief rally which I (and most of you) am anticipating in the very near future.

 

[Mcqlives]

Agreed...and tomorrow may be the day. But the timing is rough with our limited trades. Even if I was in equities, I don't think I would hold in C or S over the weekend with the news cycle running like it is....and then you are starting the month out of the markets with only the 2 moves. As it is I believe I will be in G as of tomorrow COB (From 50/50 G/F) and wait this out. If smart money (CH uses NAAIM) starts going bearish in any significant way then how many dip buyers are going to show up on Friday? Add in the ^DJT (kudos to Toms Commentary tonight!) and more warning is seen. Caution is warranted but I hope everyone on here makes money!!!

Good Luck!

 

[Rod]

Agreed...and tomorrow may be the day. But the timing is rough with our limited trades. Even if I was in equities, I don't think I would hold in C or S over the weekend with the news cycle running like it is....and then you are starting the month out of the markets with only the 2 moves. As it is I believe I will be in G as of tomorrow COB (From 50/50 G/F) and wait this out. If smart money (CH uses NAAIM) starts going bearish in any significant way then how many dip buyers are going to show up on Friday? Add in the ^DJT (kudos to Toms Commentary tonight!) and more warning is seen. Caution is warranted but I hope everyone on here makes money!!!

Good Luck!

Very true. I realize I was taking a chance when I IFT'd to (C) and (S) today hoping to catch that relief rally, hopefully with some follow-through. But, at this time tomorrow, I may very well be down +2% for the day instead. Then I will find myself hoping for that relief rally to occur on Friday. Yes, it's impossible to time these things. That's why I simply decided to stick with my original plan and make an IFT today. I was a bit nervous going forward. But, sometime you must become your own contrarian. I'll soon discover if I made the right move. If I did, I'll be thankful. If I did not, I'll try and learn from it.

God Bless :smile:

 

[Mcqlives]

Love it! Hope your contrarian plan makes money. Good luck!!!!!

 

[Rod]

Love it! Hope your contrarian plan makes money. Good luck!!!!!

Eventually... in time. But, I might lose some first. It's all good though, because I plan to have this account untapped for at least the next 20 years. I am not relying upon it whatsoever in old-age retirement. Therefore, plenty of time to make up for any "losses." It's my "Mad Money" account! :headbang:

 

[Rod]

Hard to say how this day will go. Futures are down over 1%, but it is on "below average" to "light volume." At least according to my TD account.

 

[Rod]

Well, hello there Mr. Correction. I have been expecting you. But, be easy on me because I took one for the team in order to buy in lower than what I sold.

 

[Rod]

Paging Mr. Relief Rally... you're late. But, you can make it up by kicking Mr. Correction to the curb. I'll then forgive you. I'll even forgive you if you decide to show up tomorrow or Monday. But, if you show up on Monday, you had better be packing at least 3% followed by another 2% follow-through on Tuesday. I'll then leave you alone by IFT'ing to (F) or (G). :wink:

 

[Rod]

Yep... like I said yesterday.

Very true. I realize I was taking a chance when I IFT'd to (C) and (S) today hoping to catch that relief rally, hopefully with some follow-through. But, at this time tomorrow, I may very well be down +2% for the day instead.

But, the closing bell has not dinged dinged yet, right? :sucks:

 

[robertbr1963]

Yep... like I said yesterday.



But, the closing bell has not dinged dinged yet, right? :sucks:

Good luck, I don't feel as confident as you, 100%G until we see a turn of at least 1-2 %.

 

[Rod]

Good luck, I don't feel as confident as you, 100%G until we see a turn of at least 1-2 %.

Even then, we would have by no means hit bottom. That 1-2% you are looking for is the relief rally I am attempting to catch without losing 2% in the process. We are headed down much further.

 

[Rod]

If you've been riding this entire thing down, I suggest that you not capitulate because you may very well get out just when a relief rally/recovery is on the horizon. It usually seems to happen that way.

 

[Mcqlives]

I was tempted to hop in today as it looks like we may be getting that rally tomorrow (MAYBE!?!?!) But holding off in case more downward pressure appears this afternoon. Be nice to see that gap filled on the C fund (split it at about 2975). Sitting on one move and may not use it this month.

GOOD LUCK!

 

[BooDog]

I was tempted to hop in today as it looks like we may be getting that rally tomorrow (MAYBE!?!?!) But holding off in case more downward pressure appears this afternoon. Be nice to see that gap filled on the C fund (split it at about 2975). Sitting on one move and may not use it this month.

GOOD LUCK!

I was thinking that as well. Fridays can go either way, especially when there's still uncertainty. But you can bet, the big dogs want their discounts while they last and the way this over reaction (IMO) is going, they've been soaking up everything they can.

 

[Rod]

Interesting rebound... :scratchchin:

But, it won't last.

(SShhh.... be quiet. Mr. Market likes to do the opposite of what I say.)

 

[Boghie]

If you've been riding this entire thing down, I suggest that you not capitulate because you may very well get out just when a relief rally/recovery is on the horizon. It usually seems to happen that way.

Three hours left in the U.S. Market.

Maybe a bit too early, but this is starting to 'smell like capitulation'. Could be a 3% down/3% up market move. Wash out the weak kneed and the speculators early - then reset.

I got in too early (COB Monday). This whole mess sounds like 'HYPE' and 'Dumb Money Panic selling'. My guess is that managed funds also wanted a reason to sell and lock in gains from last year. Kinda early window dressing for their quarterly reports. The end result of either/both hype and window dressing is a snap back. Those managed funds will not want to be in bonds when those quarterly reports start coming out.

 

[Mcqlives]

Three hours left in the U.S. Market.

Maybe a bit too early, but this is starting to 'smell like capitulation'. Could be a 3% down/3% up market move. Wash out the weak kneed and the speculators early - then reset.

I got in too early (COB Monday). This whole mess sounds like 'HYPE' and 'Dumb Money Panic selling'. My guess is that managed funds also wanted a reason to sell and lock in gains from last year. Kinda early window dressing for their quarterly reports. The end result of either/both hype and window dressing is a snap back. Those managed funds will not want to be in bonds when those quarterly reports start coming out.

Boghie,

I generally agree with what you said...but the timing is what makes this so hard. There could easily be a couple more "washes" to get those weak kneed out before we rebound. Be just like Mr Manipulated Market to start to rise today only to have a sell off in the final hour. That's why I didn't bite today.

Some humor for you...I have 2 of those weak kneed in my office. Told me I was crazy for getting out when I did and have been crying about the money they are losing since last week. Today they both decided they had lost enough and bailed to the G (COB today) even though I told them they rode it down so far they might as well play it out and try to catch a bounce. These same folks rode the market down December of 18 and got out the first part of January 19 then didn't get back in till sometime last summer. I would hate to rely on their TSP Balance in retirement and it kind of makes me understand (But still don't like) why TSP limits us all to the 2 moves.

 

[Boghie]

Boghie,

I generally agree with what you said...but the timing is what makes this so hard. There could easily be a couple more "washes" to get those weak kneed out before we rebound. Be just like Mr Manipulated Market to start to rise today only to have a sell off in the final hour. That's why I didn't bite today.

Some humor for you...I have 2 of those weak kneed in my office. Told me I was crazy for getting out when I did and have been crying about the money they are losing since last week. Today they both decided they had lost enough and bailed to the G (COB today) even though I told them they rode it down so far they might as well play it out and try to catch a bounce. These same folks rode the market down December of 18 and got out the first part of January 19 then didn't get back in till sometime last summer. I would hate to rely on their TSP Balance in retirement and it kind of makes me understand (But still don't like) why TSP limits us all to the 2 moves.

Boing, boing...

That potential 'smile' turned into a solid 'smirk' soon after I clicked 'Post Quick Reply'...

Going to have to ride this one out. I did manage to miss about 40% of the losses - so, there is that. Not going to follow the Muppet Advice from your (or my) office

 

[killi]

Be just like Mr Manipulated Market to start to rise today only to have a sell off in the final hour. That's why I didn't bite today.

Wow, how prophetic was this statement?!?!

 

[Rod]

I went into (C) and (S) being up 1.25%. Looks like I'll be down around 3% when share prices post. That's minor compared to the overall losses so far. But, it figures I'd be in on the biggest hit of the week. It's quite obvious that I IFT'd at least 1 day early trying to catch a relief rally. Hopefully that won't turn into 2. At any rate, I've been warning for weeks that a pullback was due, and that it could lead to a correction. Will that now turn into a crash? Let's hope not.