Rod's Account Talk

[Rod]

Today they both decided they had lost enough and bailed to the G (COB today)...

Capitulation is a sign! Relief rally tomorrow!

 

[Rod]

I posted this to my facebook on Monday, 24 Feb, to warn my friends who don't actively manage their investments:

If you are exposed to the market, prepare for your 401(k), TSP, etc. balances to take a big hit. This is only the beginning. It will get very ugly because of COVID-19.

We are surely facing a 5% decline, which began last Thursday. We may see a decline of 10% or more in the coming days/weeks.

I posted this today:

That "10% or more" decline arrived today. The markets are oversold. Therefore a "relief rally" is on the menu. But, that's not to say the markets won't decline even further.

Tomorrow will be interesting...

 

[Rod]

Look on the bright side, if we take into account the YTD totals, we are not in a correction. :wink:

Dow: -9.71%

S&P: -7.80%

Naz: -4.53%

There... feel better? I sure do.

 

[Rod]

Share prices have posted.

I went from being up 1.25% to being down 2.98%.

Not too much damage. Being invested in (F) from 19 Feb to 26 Feb provided me a cushion of 1%. Now, (F) seems to be losing steam. Surprisingly it was down today. Maybe that's a good sign? Here's hoping for a nice relief rally tomorrow.

 

[Mcqlives]

Now, (F) seems to be losing steam. Surprisingly it was down today. Maybe that's a good sign? Here's hoping for a nice relief rally tomorrow.

You scared me! AGG had a +.02% on yahoo charts at about 3PM so when you said F fund was down I thought there was something major that changed. Looks like I lost about 0.00035% today. Whew! That could have been bad

Sorry bud! Couldn't resist! Not too often I'm right so I like to languish in it while I can

 

[Mcqlives]

Wow, how prophetic was this statement?!?!

Wish I wasn't right on it. That hurt me and I'm on the sidelines! I feel for those (most of them anyway) that are eating this pain.

 

[Rod]

You scared me! AGG had a +.02% on yahoo charts at about 3PM so when you said F fund was down I thought there was something major that changed. Looks like I lost about 0.00035% today. Whew! That could have been bad

Sorry bud! Couldn't resist! Not too often I'm right so I like to languish in it while I can

Well, it is down.

 

[Rod]

Piggy-backing off of CNBC commentary... I posted this to my facebook:

Although this is a fear-driven biological crisis instead of a fiscal crisis, the Fed might have no other option but to cut rates as the market continues to tank. Basically, it will be throwing it a life preserver. That news could come today, or come over the weekend. If and when that rate cut comes, we should rally huge. Bond yields are at all-time lows. They need to begin to rise in order for the market to stabilize.

 

[nasa1974]

Piggy-backing off of CNBC commentary... I posted this to my facebook:

Although this is a fear-driven biological crisis instead of a fiscal crisis, the Fed might have no other option but to cut rates as the market continues to tank. Basically, it will be throwing it a life preserver. That news could come today, or come over the weekend. If and when that rate cut comes, we should rally huge. Bond yields are at all-time lows. They need to begin to rise in order for the market to stabilize.

So when the market finally decides to get out of this pit of despair which rocket do we want to ride "C" or "S"?

 

[Rod]

So when the market finally decides to get out of this pit of despair which rocket do we want to ride "C" or "S"?

Well, I'm riding both... 60 (C) and 40 (S). That was my allocation from 2 Nov 2009 to 23 Dec 2019. Seemed to have worked well for me during those 10 years. Of course, I rode out every downturn during that period. But, I still had a total monetary gain of 281% during that period... all without adding any additional $$$ to my account (because I retired and could not).

All that to say this... mix it up a little.

 

[nasa1974]

Well, I'm riding both... 60 (C) and 40 (S). That was my allocation from 2 Nov 2009 to 23 Dec 2019. Seemed to have worked well for me during those 10 years. Of course, I rode out every downturn during that period. But, I still had a total monetary gain of 281% during that period... all without adding any additional $$$ to my account (because I retired and could not).

All that to say this... mix it up a little.

Currently 50/50 C/S. Riding this knife down and I'm starting to get bloody.

 

[Rod]

Currently 50/50 C/S. Riding this knife down and I'm starting to get bloody.

I can just imagine that sick feeling in the pit of your stomach. If I was in your position (and I was able to contribute to my TSP), I would increase my monetary contributions as much as possible from my pay and then buy in (average in) at these bargain prices. Of course, they may go even lower from here. But, at least you will have more shares overall to begin offsetting your losses when (not if) the market makes new highs. Those new highs could take awhile. But, at least you'll be positioned. Just don't capitulate. Consider yourself in for the ride no matter where it might take you.

 

[Rod]

Some "Stay-at-Home" stock picks from Jim Cramer. That is, if COVID-19 becomes widespread:

Zoom
Teladoc
Ring Central
Moderna
Etsy
Square
Shopify
Nvidia
Adobe
theTradeDesk

 

[Rod]

I would add Clorox to the above mix.

 

[nasa1974]

I can just imagine that sick feeling in the pit of your stomach. If I was in your position (and I was able to contribute to my TSP), I would increase my monetary contributions as much as possible from my pay and then buy in (average in) at these bargain prices. Of course, they may go even lower from here. But, at least you will have more shares overall to begin offsetting your losses when (not if) the market makes new highs. Those new highs could take awhile. But, at least you'll be positioned. Just don't capitulate. Consider yourself in for the ride no matter where it might take you.

I wish I could contribute to my TSP.

 

[Mcqlives]

Interesting rebound... :scratchchin:

But, it won't last.

Rod, Say something positive about the market! Quick!!! Since it is obvious that your comment yesterday was the whole reason for the late sell off you must be the master manipulator we have all been looking for!

Of course I'm being sarcastic...but just in case there is a sliver of truth to it...please? With sugar on top?

 

[Rod]

Rod, Say something positive about the market! Quick!!! Since it is obvious that your comment yesterday was the whole reason for the late sell off you must be the master manipulator we have all been looking for!

Of course I'm being sarcastic...but just in case there is a sliver of truth to it...please? With sugar on top?

Well, we do keep bouncing off of 1,000 down on the Dow.

 

[Rod]

Oh, and NVDA is now GREEN!

 

[nnuut]

The answer to that question is "YES"!

 

[Mcqlives]

I have to admit that I am very tempted to buy in today. But it boils down to a complete gamble on whether the Fed will drop rates