Pyriel Account Talk

[mayday]

I was talking to a Forex guy about a week ago and he mentioned that the dollar seems to be losing its power on Dec timeframe. When I asked him what could be the cause of it, he mentioned that a big factor is that alot of $$ seems to leave the economy or the system on December. He mentioned that Dec is the time that they stack up on $$. Alot of people are sending money to their relatives and families who lives back home. Just thinking about it, US is composed of immigrants (i'm one of them) who still have ties to their previous homeland.
I think we are already seeing the weakening of the dollar which should continue throughout Dec timeframe. I'll be going 100i fund sometime this week and breaking the 30c30s40i allocation long term that I am supposed to be in. Please don't follow me, I really don't know what i'm doing.
Pyriel

I think I'll join ya today Pyriel. Looks like the Nikkei came back to life. Australia nudged a gain. I'm expecting FTSE to rally. Dollars down looking good for the I fund could have a -FV. Mayday

 

[pyriel]

I think I'll join ya today Pyriel. Looks like the Nikkei came back to life. Australia nudged a gain. I'm expecting FTSE to rally. Dollars down looking good for the I fund could have a -FV. Mayday

Me thinks the i fund will get hit today (they usually follow the US market the following day) Not sure if this is the right time to get in to I fund. I'll be watching the international today...

Pyriel

 

[mayday]

Me thinks the i fund will get hit today (they usually follow the US market the following day) Not sure if this is the right time to get in to I fund. I'll be watching the international today...

Pyriel

I did'nt go I fund today circumstances changed my mind a little by noon and I went with the S fund. I'm looking for a bounce in the US market. I fund might have a better buying opportunity tommorrow.

 

[pyriel]

Went 100i cob Thursday. C&S had their fun for Nov, lets see what we can get out of the I fund for Dec;-)

Pyriel

 

[pyriel]

Hello everyone!!!;-)

I have decided that I will no longer be posting my moves after this year. Not that it really matter since I really have no idea on what I am doing and merely following the moves of the Top 10 people here. I will also be moving around for December instead of stayin in one spot (100i).

I also decided that I will stop contributing to TSP and my ROTH IRA and may be possibly pull them all and divert them to another investment vehicle that I am a little bit knowledgeable.

Guam currently is in a real estate boom unlike the rest of the states and territories. According to the economist here, the boom is to last for 7-10 years due to military build up that is happening. Just a week ago, Air Force announced that 300 airmen will be coming to Guam starting next year with their dependents. This is just an installment of many more to come and if we add that with almost 8k marines you can pretty much do the math on an island that is only 50 miles long and 25 miles wide.

Its funny when people talk about real estate in the mainland, acreage is being mentioned while here 500 sm is a norm.;-) Gilligan mentioned something about building homes and I have done my research. I will continue to buy houses but will also start building them. I have a 5 year plan that I am following so we'll see how that goes... Thank you all...

Pyriel

 

[ocean]

Hello everyone!!!;-)

I have decided that I will no longer be posting my moves after this year. Not that it really matter since I really have no idea on what I am doing and merely following the moves of the Top 10 people here. I will also be moving around for December instead of stayin in one spot (100i).

I also decided that I will stop contributing to TSP and my ROTH IRA and may be possibly pull them all and divert them to another investment vehicle that I am a little bit knowledgeable.

Guam currently is in a real estate boom unlike the rest of the states and territories.

This is just an installment of many more to come and if we add that with almost 8k marines you can pretty much do the math on an island that is only 50 miles long and 25 miles wide.

I will continue to buy houses but will also start building them. I have a 5 year plan that I am following so we'll see how that goes... Thank you all...

Pyriel

Hey Mr. Pryiel, two of the most famous real estate tycoons started their real estate business in a small island. Mr. Lee Ka-sing started in the small island of Hong Kong in 60’s. Mr. Trump started his in Manhattan island in late 70’s. Now we have Mr. Pryiel started his in the island of Guam in mid-2000s. Let me use a famous phrase from one of the movies, “I know you could do it”. I sincerely wish you have a successful journey in your business.

Ocean

 

[GGal]

I am very disappointed to hear this. You have the investment world at your fingertips in TSP. And all your contributions come off the top! The tax savings alone funds a big chunk of your investment.

Please reconsider. You are young. Build your 401K, then you'll find as your family grows and your salary grows, you will have so much extra to invest.

I like your idea about real estate if you do it wisely, but am against your proposal to chunk TSP.

Keep funding your TSP fully, and you will wake up a millionaire!

GA

 

[nnuut]

I am very disappointed to hear this. You have the investment world at your fingertips in TSP. And all your contributions come off the top! The tax savings alone funds a big chunk of your investment.

Please reconsider. You are young. Build your 401K, then you'll find as your family grows and your salary grows, you will have so much extra to invest.

I like your idea about real estate if you do it wisely, but am against your proposal to chunk TSP.

Keep funding your TSP fully, and you will wake up a millionaire!

GA

Yep!:embarrest:

 

[pyriel]

I am very disappointed to hear this. You have the investment world at your fingertips in TSP. And all your contributions come off the top! The tax savings alone funds a big chunk of your investment.

Please reconsider. You are young. Build your 401K, then you'll find as your family grows and your salary grows, you will have so much extra to invest.

I like your idea about real estate if you do it wisely, but am against your proposal to chunk TSP.

Keep funding your TSP fully, and you will wake up a millionaire!

GA

Thank you all... I've actually done the numbers and my 14%+ here in TSP is just too low for me to accept. I am also investing in things that I really know nothing about. I have always mentioned that I really don't know what I am doing with TSP and the market.

GA, I am curious, what good is a million dollars when I am 60 when I could have a million dollars when I am 45 and enough passive income for me to do what I want and enjoy life in 6 years and not have to wait 15 years down the line. I guess what I am trying to say is that my financial security is not based on how many million of dollars i saved through TSP and ROTH but on how long could I sustain current way of life without having to work. I am not sure if I mentioned this earlier that I want $10k per month for me to live comfortably during my retirement provided I don't have a house payment and bad debts (car, cc, etc..).... If I don't do anything now and wait for retirement, I will be hitting that mark. Now, I am increasing my outlook and going for $20k per month and would like to do it in 5 years;-)

Risky? Some people would say that its risky. But I think TSP and ROTH is risky (to me) because I am not very good at it. As far as real estate is concern, lets just say I am already working on my second mil...;-) I jsut had lunch with my rea estate agent and a RE partner of mine. I'll be posting my comments in my RE thread.

Pyriel

 

[GGal]

Don't mind me. I'm Miss Gloom and Doom. So I like the idea of safe, dependable, steady, the list goes on and on......

Most people would tell you that 14% is better than good......good being 10%.

You go for it. In the meantime, can I borrow some money? I wanna go shopping!

GA

 

[fabijo]

Pyriel -

Good luck. You definitely need to go with what you know. I recently lowered my TSP contributions to 5% (so I can get the match) so I could invest in other ways. I figure the tax savings I am missing out on now will be made up for in the tax advantage I can gain in a ROTH. Who knows, I could do something similar to you in the coming years.

Peace.

 

[Tri-ing]

Pyriel,

I spent 2.5 years living in Guam back in the early 90s. It was a love/hate thing. Loved the diving/stomping and fiestas, hated the local politics and work ethic (and the 20 pounds I gained from the great food!). I also made the mistake of NOT investing in Real Estate while I was there. I saw a lot of others do well. It's an island. There is only so much land. With a huge influx of military comes a solid rental market. I wish you much success in your endeavor. Keep your kids in private school.

 

[pyriel]

Tri-ing,
Nothing has changed with the politics;-( The 90s were a big boom here for RE and it is happening again. However, what goes up must also come down so I am watching for that. BTW, we now have DODEA school for the military here and they are both attending there.

Fabijo,
Thanks, I will not be leaving TSPTalk and will continue to be a moderator here. I'll just be spending more time in the RE section.;-)

GGal,
You are one of my favorite girl here but im sorry someone already beat you to it...

ALL,
I'll be in Orlando from 12-14 December... I would love to meet those who live around the area. I'll buy dinner. Thanks...

Pyriel

 

[pyriel]

30 Nov
C 15.47
S 18.74
I 21.55

CURRENT
C 15.62 (.15)
S 18.84 (.10)
I 21.98 (.43)

Anyone still think the C&S funds will be able to catch up with the I fund for December?

 

[pyriel]

So many people talking about being cautious due to possible and upcoming downturn. Me thinks it will happen and might copy the beginning of 2005 reversal. I'm sure posters here clearly remember what happened in Jan 05.

 

[FundSurfer]

My head hurts with all of this end of the year double think...

 

[pyriel]

I always read Tom's market outlook pretty much on a daily basis. Today, Tom played around with some numbers and showed us possible gains of what we may have receieved for certain allocations such as 30/30/40 csi or g/s allocation vs. fully invested in s or i funds. The problem with this scenario and I have seen it so many times here is that they are all hypothetical on what it percentage increase/decrease we could have received.
The problem I am having with these data is that we really don't know the future and if we are to apply those right now, there is a possibility that the results will be reversed.
Now, I am one of the dumbest (can i say that here) market mover here with no knowledge on how to gauge the market through charts and sentiment analysis. All I do is look at the top ten and see what they are doing and then HOPE for the best.
There are some factors that I am looking at and here they are:
1. $$ is eroding since they are printing more paper money and we continue to go in deeper debt
2. India and China are emerging power player
3. Jobs are going overseas
4. US is at the top (not too much growth there) while other countries are in the process of becoming to be trade superpowers
It is no wonder why the I fund continue to outperform the C/S funds for the last couple of years. Would the trend continue??? And for how long??? I don't know the answers to these questions but with multiple conflicts we are involved in which continued to drain our resources I say we have another couple more years with the I fund beating the C/S funds.
Hey, please don't take my word for it. Like what I always say, I really don't know what I am doing here...
Happy Holidays!!!
Pyriel

 

[ayla]

... The problem with this scenario and I have seen it so many times here is that they are all hypothetical on what it percentage increase/decrease we could have received...
The problem I am having with these data is that we really don't know the future and if we are to apply those right now, there is a possibility that the results will be reversed.
...
There are some factors that I am looking at and here they are:
1. $$ is eroding since they are printing more paper money and we continue to go in deeper debt
2. India and China are emerging power player
3. Jobs are going overseas
4. US is at the top (not too much growth there) while other countries are in the process of becoming to be trade superpowers
..
Pyriel

Thanks for asking a question that I have been wondering about also.

I had an additional question about the US dollar. I think I've heard that if the dollar declines, it actually helps our stock market because then the International world jumps in and buys with their money that is worth more than before the decline of the dollar. They are getting more for their money. Therefore a declining dollar will help our market rise. Have you heard that?

Also, when the dollar declines, so does our debt. The US trillion dollar debt (or whatever it is) is in US dollars.

So now I've forgotten, what is the down side of the US dollar declining? Inflation here at home?

 

[ebbnflow]

Not to mention, oil producing countries getting away from the declining dollar and buying euros instead. China is also diversifying their reserves. I say good for the I-fund in the long run.

 

[350zCommTech]

I had an additional question about the US dollar. I think I've heard that if the dollar declines, it actually helps our stock market because then the International world jumps in and buys with their money that is worth more than before the decline of the dollar. They are getting more for their money. Therefore a declining dollar will help our market rise. Have you heard that?

I disagree with that. I think it's the opposite. A falling dollar means a rise in Euro, Pound, Yen, etc...Much like a rise in the dollar subtracts from the gains in the I fund, for us.