Playing the I fund

[Pilgrim]

Pundits are already talking about a European Market bloodbath on Thursday if ECB raises by 50 basis points:

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Sto...8B8-4371-A089-39B334EFDE44}&siteid=mktw&dist=

 

[FundSurfer]

MSCI posted (2.922%) for today. Subtract yesterday's FV and you get somewhere in the neighborhood of -1.5% for today. I don't think we'll get another FV since dollar index and EFA have been fairly steady since noon.

 

[Rod]

MSCI posted (2.922%) for today. Subtract yesterday's FV and you get somewhere in the neighborhood of -1.5% for today. I don't think we'll get another FV since dollar index and EFA have been fairly steady since noon.

So, how many pennies are we looking at losing?

 

[Birchtree]

Rod,

Would you be content with another -$0.36? I have $hundreds coming into my international fund and small cap fund this Friday. No pain no gain.

Dennis

 

[Rod]

Rod,

Would you be content with another -$0.36? I have $hundreds coming into my international fund and small cap fund this Friday. No pain no gain.

Dennis

I dunno... that's .10 below my target.

I'll be content with -.26!

 

[Rod]

down -.33

I said if it were to fall to my target price that I would consider selling. It's now .07 below that price of 19.10.

I've considered it, and I'm staying.

 

[Birchtree]

Rod,

Can you kindly hold off on any explosive rebound until at least after Friday? It's been a long month waiting on these raspberries to ripen. I'm taking the small cap fund back up and peeling 10% off toward the international - been doing that for awhile now. Otherwise I'm a C kinda guy.

Dennis

 

[Rod]

Gosh Dennis, I hope not!

Anyways, beginning tomorrow I'll be away for a couple days. So, here's to "flying by the seat of my pants"!

Maybe I'll see some GREEN upon my return.

 

[Rod]

Of course, the Nikkei is currently down again by about 94.

Guess this week's a wash...

There's always Jul, Aug, Sep, Oct, Nov, and Dec!!!

 

[Rod]

Well, looks like the Nikkei is at a new low for the year.

"Oh Nikkei you're so fine, you're so fine you blow my mind, oh Nikkei!"

Bernie Mac's new anthem...:cheesy:

 

[Fivetears]

The NIKKEI Investment Diving Team is back on the platform again. -288.85 (1.88%) Not a pretty sight.

 

[airlift]

Good morning to all!
Rod, I noticed that you highlighted Oct. Nov, and Dec (below). Is this because you have pretty good expectations that those months are positive or negative for the I-fund? Reason I ask is because I understand that October has a track record of surprises, perhaps not as bad as September, but still... I too, have my sights set on a good second half for the I-fund, in light of the currency aspect and the potential recovery of the markets with the help of a positive historic seasonality during the last quarter.

Of course, the Nikkei is currently down again by about 94.

Guess this week's a wash...

There's always Jul, Aug, Sep, Oct, Nov, and Dec!!!

 

[roguewave]

For those who may not know or understand, this arrangement has been in place for a very long time(approx. 2 decades) and is now beginning to unwind. Yes, this will affect the Nikkei in a very negative way. In todays financial market environment, those individuals who think they can predict longer then a week's time frame, what will occur in these "markets" are so clueless that anyone listening to them would do well to run from them. Good luck.

http://www.moneyweek.com/file/13563/where-should-you-put-your-money-as-the-carry-trade-ends.html

 

[airlift]

This is a scary scenario to contemplate. I read the article very quickly and can't spend much time on the highly profound problems that might worsen. It is very good of you to bring these risks to our attention for all the good reasons. I have to admit, however, that I have no quick response, and that we must trust the proper authorities to discharge their duties honorably. Of course, there is always the possibility that extreme adversaries of the U.S. and of our economic system might not play by the reasonable and expected standards....thus, accelerating an otherwise manageable economic and financial crisis. Noneheless, I remain committed to the idea that our representatives will act promptly and in good faith in order to avert a crisis.

For those who may not know or understand, this arrangement has been in place for a very long time(approx. 2 decades) and is now beginning to unwind. Yes, this will affect the Nikkei in a very negative way. In todays financial market environment, those individuals who think they can predict longer then a week's time frame, what will occur in these "markets" are so clueless that anyone listening to them would do well to run from them. Good luck.

http://www.moneyweek.com/file/13563/where-should-you-put-your-money-as-the-carry-trade-ends.html

 

[Fivetears]

End of this years 4-year Cycle Low; last quarter.
Sorry Rod. Couldn't resist the temptation to take a swinging guess.

Good morning to all!
Rod, I noticed that you highlighted Oct. Nov, and Dec (below). Is this because you have pretty good expectations that those months are positive or negative for the I-fund? Reason I ask is because I understand that October has a track record of surprises, perhaps not as bad as September, but still... I too, have my sights set on a good second half for the I-fund, in light of the currency aspect and the potential recovery of the markets with the help of a positive historic seasonality during the last quarter.

 

[Fivetears]

Very interesting read. Never knew there was a name for that particular market practice; $Carry Trade.

For those who may not know or understand, this arrangement has been in place for a very long time(approx. 2 decades) and is now beginning to unwind. Yes, this will affect the Nikkei in a very negative way. In todays financial market environment, those individuals who think they can predict longer then a week's time frame, what will occur in these "markets" are so clueless that anyone listening to them would do well to run from them. Good luck.

http://www.moneyweek.com/file/13563/where-should-you-put-your-money-as-the-carry-trade-ends.html

 

[vectorman]

If the U.S markets finish pretty nice in the green, I wonder if this will be a fair valuation night for the I fund.:notrust:

 

[Rod]

Good morning to all!
Rod, I noticed that you highlighted Oct. Nov, and Dec (below). Is this because you have pretty good expectations that those months are positive or negative for the I-fund? Reason I ask is because I understand that October has a track record of surprises, perhaps not as bad as September, but still... I too, have my sights set on a good second half for the I-fund, in light of the currency aspect and the potential recovery of the markets with the help of a positive historic seasonality during the last quarter.

Well, I made nearly 7% last Oct-Dec.

And last year at this time, I was around -2% for the year. I'm at least in positive territory as of this writing.

So, that's why I'm optimistic.

 

[Rod]

This is a scary scenario to contemplate.

Scenerios... SCARNARIOS... It's all one person's opinion. Don't allow it to define your overall strategy.

 

[FundSurfer]

MSCI today = (0.485%)

There was a late dive in the EFA but the dollar index only up slightly since noon.

I'd bet a minus 9-10 cent today with no FV. This did not look good. Hoping for positive news tommorrow out of the ECB.