Playing the I fund

[JOVARN]

http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/05/10/bloomberg/bxbux.php
"The dollar is going to continue to sell off," said Firas Askari, head currency trader at BMO Nesbitt Burns in Toronto. The chance of a June rate increase, given the current economic outlook, is "at most 50 percent; any dollar rally is going to be sold."

The dollar also weakened as the U.S. Treasury increased pressure on China to let the yuan appreciate at a faster rate, even though it stopped short of branding China a currency manipulator in a biannual report released in Washington.

"There's not a lot going on in the U.S. that says the dollar should be strengthening," said David Durrant, an investment strategist
BUT WAIT BATMAN
Losses for the dollar may be curbed on speculation its recent declines are excessive, according to technical indicators on charts that traders watch to predict price movements. The euro's 14-day relative strength index versus the dollar, a measure of momentum, was at 77 on Wednesday. A level below 30 or above 70 signals a change in direction.

GTG OT Today. I'll be making money the old fashion way

 

[Wimpy]

Re: Dollar Rally

Gold is still going up in the face of the dollar rise which is suggesting the smart money thinks the dollar rise will be short lived. The dollar is dead cat bouncing off of fib support.

The I-Fund is still the place to be in my opinion and it is continuing to separate itself from the other funds on rises AND declines. The chasm between the I-Fund and the other funds will continue to widen in favor of the I-Fund.

Certainly fib support gives a nimble trader an opportunity to catch a rise in the dollar, but in a dollar bear trending market the gravitational forces can overwhelm that rise very quickly. Trading out of the TSP I-Fund on these bounces probably doesn't qualify as being nimble. Going with the trend, with the TSP trading lag time we endure, is probably the best way to go.

 

[oldschool]

Japan's weighting in MSCI EAFE to go up slightly - see article at

http://yahoo.reuters.com/stocks/Quo...6-05-11_05-21-42_T274041&symbol=8328.T&rpc=44

 

[ayla]

Looks like the dollar is not holding up. Noon data shows heading downward in a steep slope, at least on this chart at:

http://quotes.ino.com:801/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX

Means the I fund will likely be higher today, just a guess. Darn! wish it would hold off just a little since I'm buying back into the I-Fund at c.o.b. today.

Editing this to say I'm going to make this post in the Market talk thread, think it belongs better there. Sorry for the duplicate postings.

 

[Master]

We have the following readings from the World and Currency market

*********** Change *** Change% *** Level
USD vs Yen *- 0.3200 *** - 0.29% **** 0.0091
USD vs Euro * + 0.0078 ** + 0.61% *** 1.2860
Nikkei ****** -89.79 *** -0.53%**** 16,862.14
FTSE ******* -41.40 *** -0.68%**** 6,042.00

I expect a loss of about -0.30 to -0.40%.

The Japanese market accounts for about 25%. The change in currency and Nikkei should amount for ~-0.22%. The European market has a larger loss in Germany (close to 1%), but the dollar is up by 0.61% offsetting some loss. I expect their contribution being ~-0.10%. Unless the dollar keeps strengthening after this moment.

 

[ayla]

Master -- I'm seeing the dollar down (at this point) by -.74 (-.87%) at:
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=s

The above link seems to be on a 24 hour clock. Maybe that is the difference.

Can you give the source for your report that the dollar is up?
(I realize they aren't all the same, just trying to learn here)

 

[Master]

Ayla,
We are looking at different things. I am looking at the CNNMoney main market page. What I reported is the currency exchange (which is what matters as MS calculates the value of securities in their currency and then exchange to USD). It means how much of local currency you can buy with USD, thus, it is the inverse of what you are looking at.
M

 

[SkyPilot]

EAFE Down
(0.318%)
May 11
MSCI

 

[ayla]

master - thanks for the informative response.

Just checked the msci link and looks like EAFE is down - .318 % - about 6 or 7 cents down in tSP terms if I were to guess.

I'm a happy camper, at least today. We'll see what tomorrow or next week brings us. I hope to go long with the I-Fund for a good while. Feels like I'm heading back to the "casino".

http://www.msci.com/equity/index2.html

 

[SkyPilot]

With the USD down as well, we may get a FV so it may be even less pennies lost.

 

[Master]

I agree with both of you. The -0.22% and -0.10% added nicely to ~ -0.32% (-0.318). However, the USD has fallen since then, and we might end up with a -0.15 to -0.20% today.

 

[Griffin]

MSCI EAFE neg .318

 

[Buffalo_Nickle]

Man, what a good feeling to be able to get up to date info on the I fund. Thanks to all ! Eventually, I hope to be to triangle the data as well,... Thanks for your expertise input. God Bless the USA!!

 

[FundSurfer]

It is possible that the foriegn markets follow the US down tommorrow.

Dollar index is uncertain. I think it is headed from 84.3 to 81-80 range eventually (~5% more drop). There could be some support in several places on the way down.

I'd also bet on some hawkish words from some member of the federal reserve board to hit the media sometime tommorrow or this weekend. Thant should give the dollar a bounce but will really only be intended to slow the dollars decent not stop it.

I may be looking to buy back into the I-fund tommorrow on weakness. i should have stayed in the fund in the first place. If you are in the fund, I'd stay put. If the US markets are free falling again tommorrow, I may just dip a toe in.

 

[sugarandspice]

I Down .06 cents


S was down .30 cents

 

[oldschool]

tokyo equities down about 1% in early trading, dollar also down vs. yen and euro

http://today.reuters.com/Investing/...00122Z_01_T264752_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FOREX.XML

 

[Wizard]

Nikkei now down over 2%. It is all good.

 

[nnuut]

NIKKEI 225 05/12 - 10:14

16,492.12 -370.02
And so it continues:worried:

 

[James48843]

Nikkei now down over 2%. It is all good.

It's great when you switched out to "G" yesterday.

Japan getting hammered. Dollar getting hammered too, but Nikkei 225 getting hammered much, much worse. Looks to be a huge down day tomorrow for the "I" fund. We'll have to see how big a hit London takes in the morning.

 

[nnuut]

NIKKEI 225 05/12 - 10:54

16,456.98 -405.16 OUCH! Do ya think this is the dip we have been waiting for??
About 2.5%!!! DIVE, DIVE, DIVE!!