Playing the I fund

[The_Technician]

Dollar $$$ index is up as of 04:00 :nuts: . Nicky and Footsie also down :worried: . Could be signs of I-Fund rebalancing and giving back some of those beeg gains. An opportunity to buy in later.

If we can just get through the next month, I believe we have a whole new ball game taken off....it will be interesting....and scary at that....

 

[CheapShot]

There must have been an FV from Friday, I thought we would get a samll loss yesterday in the I Fund. I went 80 G and 20 F effective today. Figured if the I Fund didn't take off yesterday it would probably flounder for the week. I'll probably sit here until Friday and see how things begin to look next week before testing the I Fund waters again. But I am happy with the 20,84 return.

 

[grasshopper]

Still trying to figure all this out. I also thought I would have a small loss in this I fund on Monday but to my surprise I managed to make some $$$. Why?

 

[SkyPilot]

Now that the I fund has such a run-up, most of the tech analysis will likely indicate that it is too hot and has gone to far, so there must be an impending correction in the offing.

However, should this be a lengthy climb due to a falling dollar, this may over-ride analylists rational. Now, we have to decide what rational and strategy will be dominant over the near to mid term.

I am sticking with the I fund at the moment, especially since the EAFE seems to have a long way to go before it is likely to run out of steam.
Also, to me, the S and C funds don't seem to hold as much promise in the same time frame.

The F fund will not be an option for me unless interest rates drop while the economy tanks at the same time. Don't see the rates dropping enough to stimulate the F at this time.

 

[Master]

SkyPilot,
That was my rationale for my move to the F fund yesterday. I expected a pause or hesitation on the fall of the dollar due to the impeding FOMC actions. It appears, once again, that I was wrong and I am going to lose a few more cents out the I fund performance.

 

[SkyPilot]

Master, in that the F fund never seems to produce much of a single day increase when it does show gains, it is really hard for me to consider it, even when all it's favorable stars are aligned.

Unless we have a major event, i.e., 9-11, huge market crash kinda stuff, (maybe a tactical strike in the mid-east somewhere?), I don't see much of a play there, for me anyway. And then, I am likely to go heavier into G than F, as the G would be a safer haven in those circumstances, and still perform in the range of the F (within a couple percent).

I tried the F fund a couple of times this year, and got bit. Didn't really understand well what moved the fund, but now I have learned a bit (due to forum discussions, I might add ).

 

[ayla]

grasshopper and Brett --

Not sure if I will be answering your questions but wanted to give back info that I have learned in this forum, the MSCI EAFE info posted on Yahoo is really a quote for an ETF that is patterned after the real MSCI index but not the same. Often the trending is the same for both but in the case of yesterday, one was up and one was down.

If you want to really follow the TSP I fund, you need to check the EAFE info at:
http://www.msci.com/equity/index2.html

Click on the calendar and click on the current date to get the most current info. Though the results are usually not posted until the afternoon for the current day. I have found it is pretty much on target. I haven't seen much reason to talk about FV for the I fund since I have been following this more accurate info.

For example yesterday's 9 cents increase for the I fund corresponded exactly to the quote info on this page for yesterday.

 

[Master]

I choose this time the F rather than G because the G had just gone up by a penny, and it would have taken 3-4 days before any gain could be made. The AGG index has been at resistance levels and had a few incremental gains that did not resulted in a even penny, so I thought, that the pressure of betting on no further interest rates was going to push it up a cent or two. As you, I rarely use this fund.

 

[pointman72]

At 10:45, EFA +.48%, Dollar Index -.70.

 

[Griffin]

At 10:45, EFA +.48%, Dollar Index -.70.

Nikkei was down, Yen down = will about break even,

European markets up about .50% on average, European currencies down about .40% = about .75% gain

I-fund about 75% europe/25% asia....expect about a .60% gain in the I.

 

[Spartan]

Nikkei was down, Yen down = will about break even,

European markets up about .50% on average, European currencies down about .40% = about .75% gain

I-fund about 75% europe/25% asia....expect about a .60% gain in the I.

*European currencies are UP

Just remember that yesterday the dollar rose after EAFE close, which was not FV adjusted. So much of the dollar falling today is just getting us back to where we were.

Based on current data, I think MSCI EAFE will be up only slightly, if at all. But the dollar is continuing it's fall, so we may see a FV tonight if it keeps going down.

 

[Master]

The I fund is up by + 0.493% according to the MSCI website.

The good thing for my gamble is that despite moving 100% out of I in my TSP account on Friday, I remained 80% in International stocks.

 

[SkyPilot]

Thanks, Master. MSCI posted a bit earlier today. With the decline in the dollar, that should be a good number for the I fund, unless we get a FV pop at the end of the day.

 

[Spartan]

The I fund is really a no brainer this year. Last year was a gamble with rising rates and no end in sight. With rate hikes ending I wouldnt be surprised if we saw 40% or more this year. Not nearly as great as my EWZ and FXI but decent enough for tax deferred dollars.

 

[Griffin]

Dollar was down (.784) against the euro on the last post I made and has made a considerable rebound upto (.79). Good chance we will see some FV tonight - with the MSCI at .493, I'm now expecting about +.35% to .40% for the I.

It will be interesting to see if Bernake address the recent free fall of the dollar in his comments tomorrow and what that does to the dollar. I'm still glad to be on the sideline....for now.

 

[Spartan]

Dollar was down (.784) against the euro on the last post I made and has made a considerable rebound upto (.79). Good chance we will see some FV tonight - with the MSCI at .493, I'm now expecting about +.35% to .40% for the I.

It will be interesting to see if Bernake address the recent free fall of the dollar in his comments tomorrow and what that does to the dollar. I'm still glad to be on the sideline....for now.

?? The USDEUR is still at .784

 

[Griffin]

You are correct. The web site I looked at rounded it off (a currency conversion). I was getting frustrated with CNN Money because when the dollar drops against the yen it shows as a negative but when the dollar drops against the Euro it shows as a positive. Yahoo Finanace gives the raw number but not the change (without pulling up the chart - which doesn't show the %change) - so I tried a different site that I was not familiar with. My bad.

Anybody got a good website that charts and gives numbers in one stop for currencies?

 

[SkyPilot]

Bump. Never mind.

 

[LA_Guy]

Anybody got a good website that charts and gives numbers in one stop for currencies?

http://www.dailyfx.com/

 

[Spartan]

Nikkei opens in bout' 5 min. I vote rally day. 1.2% or more.