Playing the I fund

[Birchtree]

Knock another dollar off this sale to $21.00 and even I may peel some C fund to catch a good ride back to $23.50. You don't think you'll see that low a price - wait until the hedge fund juniors are done running from the internationals. The same thing happened last Spring when they thought China was slowing. They were wrong then and they are wrong now - but we all pay a price for their foolishness - it's what makes a market. Snort.

 

[Birchtree]

Nikkei down 340 means only 1800 more points to go for the bottom. That could actually be done in 5 to 6 trading days at this rate of downside momentum. The Mrs. is pulling on my shirt sleeve - when can we buy. Where will this money seek shelter - SPX is my guess.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

They were wrong then and they are wrong now - but we all pay a price for their foolishness - it's what makes a market. Snort.[/QUOTE]

who's 'we', Birch?

 

[Birchtree]

The mouse in my pocket of course.

 

[fabijo]

The Mrs. is pulling on my shirt sleeve - when can we buy.

You've really got a fearless wife. It must be fun being able to talk about the market with your wife! My wife can bear with the conversation, but she'd rather talk about other stuff.

 

[Birchtree]

It's her retirement fund so she better be interested - she is in a defined contribution plan. I can only do a round trip with her international fund every seven days - but that is plenty of flexibility. She will get a DCA on 3/9 so I hope to have her in by then, preferably at much reduced pricing. Rod is the one that is fearless tonight - riding a taboggin I think.

 

[Rod]

Rod is the one that is fearless tonight - riding a taboggin I think.

My "taboggin" is parked in (G).

"Wax"'n it up for (F), though.

 

[Birchtree]

The F fund has peaked unless the Fed steps in with an early rate cut. I've always said watch what they do and not what they say. You think $20.00 on the I fund? That would equate to a Nikkei of close to 15,000 and the FTSE and DAX back to 5,000. Sounds good to me.

 

[Rod]

The F fund has peaked unless the Fed steps in with an early rate cut. I've always said watch what they do and not what they say. You think $20.00 on the I fund? That would equate to a Nikkei of close to 15,000 and the FTSE and DAX back to 5,000. Sounds good to me.

Roughly $20.00-$21.00 would certainly grab my attention.

 

[Fivetears]

Friday copy-catting in Asian Markets.
^AORD 5,686.10 9:34PM ET 89.10 (1.54%)
^N225 16,842.32 9:00PM ET 375.61 (2.18%)

 

[weatherweenie]

Nikkei 300 -2.17%

 

[Fivetears]

NOW they start the finger pointing.

Shang Fulin, chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, told reporters 10 minutes ago China didn't trigger global stocks rout!
He said, "China's stock market right now is relatively small and not very globalised. So it's not possible for it to have such an impact." :suspicious:
Weak U.S. durable goods orders and worries about defaults on poor-quality mortgages later drove U.S. share prices sharply lower. Global markets have been struggling to stabilize ever since. :blink:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070305/bs_nm/china_markets_regulator_dc_1

Oh, it's our fault. Right.

 

[Show-me]

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/artic...7-03-12_00-08-39_T10872&type=comktNews&rpc=44

TOKYO, March 12 (Reuters) - The Nikkei share average rose 0.86 percent on Monday, led by shares of exporters such as Canon Inc. following a fall in the yen and an advance in U.S. stocks.
The Nikkei <.N225> was up 148.10 points at 17,312.14 as of 0001 GMT. The broad TOPIX index <.TOPX> rose 0.78 percent at 1,743.87.

 

[Birchtree]

"The dankai no sedai may be silver rather than red hot, but there's still fire in the belly as well as yen in the bank".

http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/fl20070311rp.html

 

[Birchtree]

"Japan's economy experiences deflation again in February. Believe it or not, this is positive news, as it will probably keep interest rates from rising in Japan too soon".

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/guild/2007/0402.html

 

[mlk_man]

Looks like it might be -FV time..............

 

[clester]

Looks like we may have a little rally today in US. EU coming back too. Anyone going to play the move to the I fund for tomorrow?

 

[HAILSTORM]

I'm going in 100%...

 

[robo]

Sunday, April 15, 2007
Outlook for the US Dollar

Sally Limantour

The US Dollar is close to 4 decade lows. We have tested this a number of times and there are two predominant perceptions right now.

1. That the dollar will be supported down here. Going back to charts in the 1970’s there have been 4 times we have tested this level and bounced – 1978, 88, 92 and 05. Here is the logic:

Foreigners own roughly half of our Treasuries and securities and are buying over a trillion dollars worth every year. It is in their best interest to not let the dollar fall much further.

2. The other idea is that many other countries have interest rates that are higher than the US and their currencies are more attractive as a result. Britain, Germany, Australia are all higher and their ministers of finance are talking more about concerns over inflation and raising rates to control it. The US, however is still hinting at lowering rates in the future to offset a weak housing market.

So this is the dilemma and we have to watch this closely as it will have repercussions for many markets.

While I hold CD’s denominated in different currencies, I am eyeing a potential short term trade of going long the dollar. On Friday morning, looking at the Market Profile chart we had a high level of trade occur at 81850 and I went long. It took off and I aggressively moved my stop up and captured 260 points and am now flat. (see Market Profile chart – look at 4/13 and see where the horizontal line is longest at 81850. It then gapped up and traded crazy before settling down.)

This technical set up together with the chatter getting loud on dollar bashing while talking up the Euro (German exporters calling for 1.4000 in the euro) made me get a bit contrary in the morning).

I may buy again and will let you know what I see. I am also looking at options as a way to get long with a good risk/reward strategy. I am still bearish the dollar in the big picture, but it may be overdone and the first perception mentioned may move the market higher. When trading against a trend like this, I trade “light and tight” meaning not a big position and strict managing of stops. The following charts are:

http://www.hamzeianalytics.net/

 

[clester]

Japan up 1.52%, yen flat UK up 1.28%, plus .28% for pound = 1.5%
Dax up .73% minus .12 for euro= .6
Cac up .7 minus .12 = .6
WAG right now up about 1% for I fund. Should we sell strength here? I guess it depends on US markets today.