Playing the I fund

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For those of you who might be worried about a +FV today, we're not there yet. Barclays would probably not FV until the S fund reaches 1%.:)
 
VirginiaBob said:
so my assumption this morning was correct that there is a -FV?
Click to expand...


VirginiaBob,

Don't feel bad, this question gets asked about every 4 months. It is a good chunk of why this thread is 4 zillion posts long.

The I-fund is comprised of shares purchased from the MSCI EAFE. The I-fund and the EAFE are exactly the same thing except a little TSP magic which converts one into the other. The price of both are directly calculated based on the value of component stocks.

The EFA is a publicly traded fund which holdings are designed to mirror the EAFE, but the price is subject to buying a selling pressure just like any stock and therefore, speculation causes it to change. Please note that this speculation is the same speculation that is driving the rest of the US markets and currency markets and is usually loosely proportional (but not related too) an FV when it does occurr.

Going back to the EAFE and the I-fund, this is where the FV comes from. Around 3:00 (EST) MSCI Barra posts a price of the EAFE based upon the closing prices of the overseas stock markets, which all close a 12:00 pm EST. MSCI Barra's price is based upon the world's stock market at 12:00 pm EST. Sometime after the US markets close, probably around 6:00 pm EST, TSP purchases (or sells) EAFE shares to support the holdings of the I-fund. The price paid by TSP at this time can be slightly different then the price posted by MSCI at 3:00 because of large fluctuations in market momentum and currencies that may have occurred between 12:00 pm EST and the close of US markets. This difference is what causes the FV and why only actions that occurr after 12:00 PM EST can cause an FV.
 
350zCommTech said:
My big concern is the lack of rallies in the face of good news. It seems like they are looking for any excuse to sell. If good economic numbers like today's Michigan sentiment or good earnings don't entice a rally, then what's left? A Fed rate cut? That won't happen until we get a negative jobs number. I will probably stay out until then end of the month. I'm still bothered by the sell-off in tech (Thanks to Jim Cramer).

On the other hand, the dollar is hitting resistance and will drop big on any weak economic news. When I get back in, it will be I fund.
Click to expand...


Good input above. I have been thinking the same thing about "any excuse to sell." Sure makes it hard to count on making the right moves. I'm in the I fund today and so far it's been a good week for the but I'm worried that it all get taken back on Monday. Looks like the best moves this January, more than ever, would have been to stay diversified.
 
A buy and hold diversification (at the 20% X5 pick) only yielded .09% better return than the I YTD/BAH. Never discard the TSP trading program running between your ears or the one churning in your gut; the ones telling you what you should do. Removing your emotion from the current emotionally charged market equations is your present day enemy here. Paper, graphs, charts and news are very necessary... but will only take you so far. There are plenty of attentive folks quite diversified in various configurations who have struggled this 3 weeks, and continue to do so; not necessarily the best place to be lately.
http://www.tsptalk.com/utilities/tally_011207.pdf

There are many days ahead. Get them market trolls back. Grab 'em by the ankles, turn 'em upside-down and shake those .10% and .20% days out of them; make 'em pay. :nuts:
Good Luck RIDDICK!
RIDDICK said:
Good input above. I have been thinking the same thing about "any excuse to sell." Sure makes it hard to count on making the right moves. I'm in the I fund today and so far it's been a good week for the but I'm worried that it all get taken back on Monday. Looks like the best moves this January, more than ever, would have been to stay diversified.
Click to expand...
 
Are we looking at a +FV for Monday from Friday?

Seems that way since Friday was only up .10

Any thoughts?
 
Rod said:
Are we looking at a +FV for Monday from Friday?

Seems that way since Friday was only up .10

Any thoughts?
Click to expand...

Nope. 10 cents is all we had coming to us. Hopefully what we will get is a move higher based on our market action from Friday, at least in Asia and Australia.
 
Good evening... I Fund data on Bar Chart is looking stronger than it has in quite a while. Barring any negative political news I see a pretty strong week ahead. Does anyone see it differently? I think the trick is going to be getting out for the enevitable down day and hopping back in. Hope it's not Monday...

http://quote.barchart.com/texpert.asp?sym=EFA

Lets all have a 2% week....

John
 
Is there data on the Bar Charts site for the DOW JONES WILSHIRE 4500 COMPLETE; AKA S-Fund?
...and HERE HERE on the 2% week!
Nice job on the Top 10X2 too.
Gaetaone said:
Good evening... I Fund data on Bar Chart is looking stronger than it has in quite a while. Barring any negative political news I see a pretty strong week ahead. Does anyone see it differently? I think the trick is going to be getting out for the enevitable down day and hopping back in. Hope it's not Monday...

http://quote.barchart.com/texpert.asp?sym=EFA

Lets all have a 2% week....

John
Click to expand...
 
The closest I've found and sort of used is the WFIVX - WILSHIRE 5000 INDEX PT INVESTME (FUND) http://quote.barchart.com/texadv.asp?sym=WFIVX

With the 5000 including some S&P 500 it's definitely an exact science but it does give a little inkling... Right now the 5000 is throwing off some good numbers which has not been the case recently. The I still looks stronger on paper..

John
 
The charts for the I fund looked really strong, my only concern was that the performance of the U.S. Markets would have a negative pressure on the internationals. Of course I’m keeping an eye on the US Dollar, but it seems mixed, strong on the ¥ and weaker on the Euro and £.
 
Thanks for trying John. I looked around a bit too; came up empty.
Gaetaone said:
The closest I've found and sort of used is the WFIVX - WILSHIRE 5000 INDEX PT INVESTME (FUND) http://quote.barchart.com/texadv.asp?sym=WFIVX

With the 5000 including some S&P 500 it's definitely an exact science but it does give a little inkling... Right now the 5000 is throwing off some good numbers which has not been the case recently. The I still looks stronger on paper..

John
Click to expand...
 
... looking at the 5-day intraday for the s&p, it looks like the USMs could decline even further this afternoon until they find support. I'm 50% in the I fund right now and am planning to exit but thinking there may be a -FV in play later today, and thinking I shouldn't bail today and wait for Barclays to even the ante tomorrow. Thoughts from 350z, S&S and others that like playing the FV flip flops?

OH YEAH, DAAAAAAAAAA BEARSSSSSS!
 
If you think the market will double losses this afternoon then then you might consider a -FV play. My opinion is that it would only lessen your loss tomorrow. If the market doesn't recover today then I think overseas tonight will be down hard. Personally I think tech is causing this and not oil. And people are getting gun-shy about it because of past history. To me it wouldn't be worth the risk in this case.
 
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