Playing the I fund

[FundSurfer]

Whoa! Watch that dollar pop up as people flock to US dollar as safe heaven. I think I'll buy I-fund today. If I owned I-fund, I think I'd stay put.

 

[draggen3]

"""Whoa! Watch that dollar pop up as people flock to US dollar as safe heaven. I think I'll buy I-fund today. If I owned I-fund, I think I'd stay put"""

My sediments exactly !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Dollar will soon collapse

 

[Gilligan]

My wild guess today puts the EAFE down by 0.65%

 

[FundSurfer]

My wild guess today puts the EAFE down by 0.65%

The dollar is up 0.8% right now.

 

[Gilligan]

My wild guess today puts the EAFE down by 0.65%

19.56 minus 0.65% is $19.43, then if Barclays pays back the 18 cents, that would be about $19.61, as I type, the dollar is heading back down.

 

[SkyPilot]

Okay, time for more theory... suppose the I-fund rally gets to the end of the day and stay roughly a +- net gain or better, and the US market continues to rally (but not too much), do we see the EAFE tagging on for a rally tomorrow? With the FV owed to the fund (maybe) we might have the single big day we have been looking for all week.

Either way, I'm probably going to head for G fund for Monday, book the gains or stop the loss.

 

[Gilligan]

The dollar is up 0.8% right now.

I was way off. MSCI shows -1.146%

 

[The_Technician]

I was way off. MSCI shows -1.146%

Could be 19.34 or 19.52 depending if the FV is added....

 

[SkyPilot]

Gilligan,

it may yet remain to see how far off you will be, maybe not as much as it could appear at the moment...

Yesterday's MSCI was adjusted significantly, and todays numbers will likely be significantly adjusted as well.

Today has a lot of factors. I would not be suprised to see another day like yesterday, maybe even more so...

 

[Pilgrim]

Gilligan,

it may yet remain to see how far off you will be, maybe not as much as it could appear at the moment...

Yesterday's MSCI was adjusted significantly, and todays numbers will likely be significantly adjusted as well.

Today has a lot of factors. I would not be suprised to see another day like yesterday, maybe even more so...

You mean they might steal even more?? Can they do that?? I mean, how far out of whack can things get before they have to make it up?

 

[SkyPilot]

Actually, I was thinking conversly. Just Pollyanna style optimism . Hoping we get is all back, plus some!

 

[airlift]

Okay, time for more theory... suppose the I-fund rally gets to the end of the day and stay roughly a +- net gain or better, and the US market continues to rally (but not too much), do we see the EAFE tagging on for a rally tomorrow? With the FV owed to the fund (maybe) we might have the single big day we have been looking for all week.

Either way, I'm probably going to head for G fund for Monday, book the gains or stop the loss.

Sky, Quite frankly, I don't really have a practical handle on how to calculate the FV. Therefore, I prefer to leave that aspect to you and other colleagues here; although I do keep reading all of your calculations and hoping to understand this down the line. The other part of your hypothetical requires me to speculate. I trust that tomorrow the international markets follow the usual pattern. That is, a direct response to what happens in the U.S. markets. So, there should be a rally tomorrow in the EAFE. Many pundits opine that at some point there will be a decoupling of the international markets from the US markets, but I don't think it has happened yet! Tomorrow, I expect a rally in the EAFE, and I hope to do a transfer of most, if not all, into the G-Fund. Pray we get the rally. Again, if things were to change and we determine that a continuation rally is possible for next week, I am open to suggestions!

 

[SkyPilot]

I'm terrible at FV calc, but then, I am terrible at math anyway. Leave that to my engineering student sons... Mostly just guessing, speculating and standing on the shoulders of others who actually have a clue :nuts: .

But, I am great at unfounded speculation !

 

[Pilgrim]

Does the currency market "close" like stock and bond markets do? If not, at what time of day do you suppose Barclays looks at the clock and sets the dollar's value for their calculations?

 

[Wheels]

Does the currency market "close" like stock and bond markets do? If not, at what time of day do you suppose Barclays looks at the clock and sets the dollar's value for their calculations?

Whatever time they use, the next day's calculations would reflect the changes in the dollar exactly 24 hours later. In other words, if they use noon, and the dollar falls by half a percent after noon but then the next day the dollar is up a quarter of a percent at noon, then the new value of the EAFE will reflect a quarter percent drop in the dollar.

Did that muddy it up for you?

Dave
<><

 

[dell]

If I did an IFT this morning and went 75% G / 25% I, will the IFT ti the I Fund be effective as of today's close or Friday's close?

Thanks - Dell

 

[SkyPilot]

Dell, it depends if you made the cut off time or not, which is noon EST. If you did, your change would be in place for tomorrow (today's close). If not, then it would be effective for Monday (Fridays close), if I understand your question correctly,

 

[dell]

Thanks for the info. I made the transfer this morning before noon EST.

 

[Birchtree]

Dell,

That's a nice bite - I'm watching you power account types.

 

[sugarandspice]

I fund took a 4 cent dive today.

G got the penny.

This should even up the FV issue.