Phillyfed's Account Talk

[phillyfed]

Loving the F fund gains. About to break through 52 week highs. I'll keep holding because stocks are junk at these levels.

Ive mentioned this weeks ago when the R2K was at 765. Watch the R2K hit 715 and then it free falls. We are just 10 pts away now at 725. Small Caps are to be avoided IMO. If your gonna dip in, go slow and buy some C. I'll add another 8% today even thou I anticipate us selling off much, much furher. Im not going to get cute and try to guess the bottom.

I up my IFT in stocks to 23%C 40F 37G.

Things are getting really nasty. Can we finally get some capitulation? Macros are horrible and yet we are 8% off our all-time highs. The market needs a real sell-off to create buying interest. Its time for the chicken littles to sell and the smart money that have had cash on the sidelines to buy in. Another 50 pt. haircut off the S&P outta do it IMO.

 

[phillyfed]

Im staying put with my 23% position in C. I would have bought in another 5% had I known we'd selloff this agressively at days end. This is setting up to be a great opportunity to buy for the long term. BUT NOT TOO FAST!

I did buy some QQQQ at todays close in my liquid IRA. Its already down 8% YTD. I'll be happy to buy some more if it goes down another 5%

FEAR is now setting in and so is OPPORTUNITY!

Im still convinced we have to see a 500 pt down day(DOW) to signal real capitulation and fear.....Thats the BUYING OPPORTUNITY I have been talking about here for months.

OT: If they limit our TSP's, they should atleast broaden our investment opportunities. I'd like to buy some Natural resource fund. Some emerging markets and China and some select commodities as I do in my wife's IRA but we have a bunch of amateurs managing the largest fund in the world. GO FIGURE!

 

[phillyfed]

Unloaded all the C I had. 100% G now. Got lucky with todays close as at IFT time the markets were a little down. We broke a 4 year uptrend Tuesday for the first time. I just noticed this, this morning. IMO, We are going below August lows. 1350 on the S&P will be a good time to start to get in.

I view today as a simple dead cat bounce on short covering on hopes of Bernanke suprisingly lowering rates tomorrow when he speaks and I'll gladly take the profits before we fall another 50 or so pts on the S&P as he will surely dissapoint the spoiled Brats on Wall St.

I see the upside on the S&P no more then 1425 looking at the charts and that doesnt attract me with the risk/reward. Besides, I'm already almost maxed out in other accounts that actually offer china funds, natural resources, gold etfs and of course William Danoff's Contrafund to help offset the losses in the overall market

I have been talking up William Danoff here. He was just named Morningstars Fund Manager of the year. If you take a look at his recent daily performaces, its obvious, hes been long cash and high quality Bonds as his stock betas are much lower then the markets. FCNTX is his symbol. He crushed the S&P last year and the 10 years before. Its obvious hes in cash here as his losses yesterday were half that of the market and hes managing 83 Bil in funds! Thats smart money! I'll go with him and raise more cash. 6 figures and ready to pounce!!

 

[phillyfed]

This is what I have been waiting for. It took months to get here. It will be confirmed this Qtr. Earnings will be horrible as expected. It will become clear to all that we have been in recession since early fall. Bonds have done me well and the Monday/Tuesday G penny has padded the nest egg further. Cash is King. Bonds have been breaking out and I expect them to keep going. Im not touching Gold at these levels thou. Gonna sell some bonds tomorrow and take profits and if the market sells off 500-600 more pts., I will be a buyer then. Amazingly, we are barely 10% off our alltime highs. Im expecting the global markets to follow starting next qtr. Esp. emerging markets and dare I say, Oil and gas prices will start to follow suit and people will take profits and all the suckers can take their $100 Oil option Calls and throw them in the shredder. People are going to take all their gains and liquidate them and money markets will swell. Eventually in Qtr 3 or so of this year, there will be a violent bull market but first theres some pain to be had in the near future.

As I am typing this I am LMAO at Krudlow. Hes the idiot thats been telling us all to buy at Dow 14000 and I see hes not giving us too much rah rah today. No mention of Goldilocks yet. :laugh: Bet hes atleast 70% in cash now.

 

[Show-me]

Goldilocks is freak'n dead!

 

[FogSailing]

I hear you Philly. That's why I've been staying quiet in all this. I was "hoping" for a slightly positive January, but I wasn't really expecting it. I do expect a further sell-off below 1375. That may or may not happen tomorrow...but I see it happening sooner rather than later. I had been speculating a low of 1270. I like your outlook better. Time to get out of stocks before things tank further. Good luck to all in their investing.

FS

 

[poolman]

Yes, I think this is funny. Kudlow still has not mentioned Goldilocks. This is another variable saying capitulation is getting close. Now if Birchtree will just admit it we know we have bottomed. LOL...

 

[caymanbrac12]

I'm suprised a fair number of people jumped in the market for tomorrow with the cpi and the rest coming out. Maybe after getting crushed today they are hoping for a dead cat bounce but perhaps they see something I'm completely missing.

The futures already look terrible and the nikkei is 225 is down 341.


Greg

 

[Show-me]

I'm suprised a fair number of people jumped in the market for tomorrow with the cpi and the rest coming out. Maybe after getting crushed today they are hoping for a dead cat bounce but perhaps they see something I'm completely missing.

The futures already look terrible and the nikkei is 225 is down 341.


Greg

Kitty, kitty.

 

[Birchtree]

What Birchtree knows is that most ARMs are tied to the Libor rate and that rate is finally dropping to below the Fed rate at 4.05%. This Libor rate will continue to drop and relieve pressure on the new home owner. I've got my sticky pants on and plan to sit tight with the tugboat. I'll be doing some more buying in the oceanic as we perhaps head a little lower - got to take opportunity when it is presented. Like Mark Hulbert says "Questioning widely held opinions is the lonely fate of contrarian analysts."

 

[phillyfed]

I hear you Philly. That's why I've been staying quiet in all this. I was "hoping" for a slightly positive January, but I wasn't really expecting it. I do expect a further sell-off below 1375. That may or may not happen tomorrow...but I see it happening sooner rather than later. I had been speculating a low of 1270. I like your outlook better. Time to get out of stocks before things tank further. Good luck to all in their investing.

FS

Hopefully, alot of us haven't been riding this down the entire way. I see my losses in my wifes 401k and its sick but we have great funds to play with and her account is still up about 50% since 2005 and was up over 20% last year. Its getting slaughtered now and I cant trade it with ING's limited trade policy.

TSP on the other hand is another story. There have been plenty of opportunities to avoid max pain and take some small losses before we seen/will see losses that will make us sick.

With everything I have invested in 4 IRA's, 3 liquid, I'm not gonna take risks for a 1% gain when every other day we are down 2%. I believe short covering has been the only thing supporting this market and thats about to end. People are gonna be buying alot of QID tomorrow without fear or a worry of covering soon.

 

[phillyfed]

Goldilocks is freak'n dead!

Krudlow was talking up Goldilocks just yesterday....... What a tool! Abbey Cohen (Nasdaq 10,000) was out last week seeing 1650 S&P by years end. What is the color of the sky in these peoples world?

 

[poolman]

Krudlow was talking up Goldilocks just yesterday....... What a tool! Abbey Cohen (Nasdaq 10,000) was out last week seeing 1650 S&P by years end. What is the color of the sky in these peoples world?

I know what you are saying. The Market is in the process of seperating the Boy's from the Men. All kinds of people are suprising me these day's.
Amazing how the truth eventually comes out.

 

[Show-me]

Krudlow was talking up Goldilocks just yesterday....... What a tool! Abbey Cohen (Nasdaq 10,000) was out last week seeing 1650 S&P by years end. What is the color of the sky in these peoples world?

Abbey is a hoot! She was calling S&P 1600 for the end 2007 on CNBC last November. Guess she didn't see the subprime train coming. :embarrest:

 

[Show-me]

I can't count the number of time I heard someone say that capital improvement were not happening and companies were flush with cash. The only thing holding this market up for months was leveraged buy outs (LBO's), stock buy backs, and special dividends.

That ended when the credit market dried up as it should have.

 

[phillyfed]

Abbey is a hoot! She was calling S&P 1600 for the end 2007 on CNBC last November. Guess she didn't see the subprime train coming. :embarrest:

She works for Goldman Sachs now. Goldman Sachs has been bearish and a known short, predicting a full blown recession. It has to be great to have some of your former board members knowing economic data before its released to the public. I think they are well aware of whats to come. They send out Abbey to try to pump the markets. Goldman shorts some more at an inflated level after their muppet speaks and covers down another 10% for more profits.

 

[phillyfed]

I can't count the number of time I heard someone say that capital improvement were not happening and companies were flush with cash. The only thing holding this market up for months was leveraged buy outs (LBO's), stock buy backs, and special dividends.

That ended when the credit market dried up as it should have.

Well said SM

 

[poolman]

She works for Goldman Sachs now. Goldman Sachs has been bearish and a known short, predicting a full blown recession. It has to be great to have some of your former board members knowing economic data before its released to the public. I think they are well aware of whats to come. They send out Abbey to try to pump the markets. Goldman shorts some more at an inflated level after their muppet speaks and covers down another 10% for more profits.

win win situation. Pretty smart of Goldman.

 

[Show-me]

Abbey is the Queen pump monkey on Squawk Box. Right after Joe.

 

[caymanbrac12]

Kitty, kitty.

What the hell are you talking about? Clarity my man Clarity.