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Phillyfed's Account Talk
- Thread starter phillyfed
- Start date
easting
Member
This goes back 30 years to see how December typically reacts after a bearish November just to see if anything stuck out. Interestingly enough I found that over the last 30 years there have been 8 bearish Novembers and not one of those occurrences was followed by a lower December.
Source: Seeking Alpha
Give me something in the ball park of 1991 and I'll be just fine.
nnuut
Moderator | TSP Legend
Huummm ------- Wack Job-------- Borderline I'd say. :worried:
Gentlemen, Gentlemen, come now!:suspicious:
How about Old Burntankle did you like his little talk? Some are saying he said the BIG "YES WE ARE" others are saying he didn't? Up tomorrow?
phillyfed
Member
I AGREE....THATS WHY I PUT HER/HIM ON IGNORE. 
This is the post I made to Airlift that set him/her off with a barrage of PM's towards me asking, "Do you have a problem with me?". Now that I disabled PM's and ignore him/her, he posts his garbage here for all to see.
NOW HERE ARE THE PM's THAT he/she STARTED and that person is now bringing this garbage in this thread after I used the ignore feature.
Quote:
Originally Posted by 12%ayear
you have a problem with me?
Quote:
Originally Posted by phillyfed
Not at all....Your entitled to your opinion as well as I. Thats what this forum is all about. If you dont like my opinion then follow your own advise and put me on ignore.
I already apoligized to you once for ignorantly overstepping my bounds in your thread. It was an honest mistake on my part.
If I said something that offended you then so be it. I certainly wont apologize for an opinion I made that wasnt of a personal nature. I didnt call any names out or make inferances to any individual. That isnt what this forum is about.
Now, do you have a problem with what I said?
-Ed
Quote:
Originally Posted by 12%ayear
It was clearly a dig at me by quoting airlift's post about me. I do not want or need an apolgy. I do not even know you nor do I want to know you. Does us both a favor and put me on ignore.
Quote:
Originally Posted by phillyfed
Take it for what you want. I received a PM saying your a drama queen. This confirms it. Now stop sending me PMs.
-Ed
This is stupid. He asked for me to put him on ignore. I do and he still carries his made up catfight for all to see here. Thats why I put 12%ayear on ignore. If someone came after you with this B.S. you would'nt do the same? Thats why I think this guys/girl's a wackjob or at the very least, VERY INSECURE. All this and I never mentioned his/her name in a post or replyed to one of his messages.
Heres the link that whipped 12%ayear all up. If I violated this forums rules stating this opinion then let me know http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=5058&page=8
As far as im concerned 12%ayear is out of site and mind. He got the first words in and I'll let him have the last.
Ed
This is the post I made to Airlift that set him/her off with a barrage of PM's towards me asking, "Do you have a problem with me?". Now that I disabled PM's and ignore him/her, he posts his garbage here for all to see.
NOW HERE ARE THE PM's THAT he/she STARTED and that person is now bringing this garbage in this thread after I used the ignore feature.
Quote:
Originally Posted by 12%ayear
you have a problem with me?
Quote:
Originally Posted by phillyfed
Not at all....Your entitled to your opinion as well as I. Thats what this forum is all about. If you dont like my opinion then follow your own advise and put me on ignore.
I already apoligized to you once for ignorantly overstepping my bounds in your thread. It was an honest mistake on my part.
If I said something that offended you then so be it. I certainly wont apologize for an opinion I made that wasnt of a personal nature. I didnt call any names out or make inferances to any individual. That isnt what this forum is about.
Now, do you have a problem with what I said?
-Ed
Quote:
Originally Posted by 12%ayear
It was clearly a dig at me by quoting airlift's post about me. I do not want or need an apolgy. I do not even know you nor do I want to know you. Does us both a favor and put me on ignore.
Quote:
Originally Posted by phillyfed
Take it for what you want. I received a PM saying your a drama queen. This confirms it. Now stop sending me PMs.
-Ed
This is stupid. He asked for me to put him on ignore. I do and he still carries his made up catfight for all to see here. Thats why I put 12%ayear on ignore. If someone came after you with this B.S. you would'nt do the same? Thats why I think this guys/girl's a wackjob or at the very least, VERY INSECURE. All this and I never mentioned his/her name in a post or replyed to one of his messages.
Heres the link that whipped 12%ayear all up. If I violated this forums rules stating this opinion then let me know http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=5058&page=8
As far as im concerned 12%ayear is out of site and mind. He got the first words in and I'll let him have the last.
Ed
Last edited:
phillyfed
Member
Huummm ------- Wack Job-------- Borderline I'd say. :worried:
Gentlemen, Gentlemen, come now!:suspicious:
How about Old Burntankle did you like his little talk? Some are saying he said the BIG "YES WE ARE" others are saying he didn't? Up tomorrow?
I didnt hear his talk. IMO the rate cuts are already priced in for a 50 basis pt. cut. That 2 day rally was the biggest in years. Its got to be tough being Bernanke here. The markets demand cuts and Fed liquidity injections. He gives them that. Libor rates are lower for a few days then pop up again as if the Fed did nothing. Meanwhile, the Dollar tanks when he cuts and thats one less bullet left in the Chamber.
IMO, The Fed needs to let things carry out without much Fed help after Dec 11. Financials will be more apparent if they are forced to reveal their real hand. The stronger financials will eat up the weaker ones. (We are starting to see this now and thats a good thing) We will get a quicker read on the damage. Then financial institutions can trust each other. They start swapping cash, making loans to the small business's and consumer and money gets made. Liquidity eases back in as the Fed then injects and the market goes back to making us the easy 20%+ gains we like.
phillyfed
Member
The speculators are what turned the housing market into what it is today. Damn shame. Housing should be a core holding in ones portfolio. A healthy holding with steady appreciation.
I do not want the Government to bail out people who are in over their heads. The lendors that financed people for upto 5x their annual incomes should absorb their losses. The Speculators should as well.
This unfortunately has to be uniform across the board without exception. They wanted to trade housing like a stock investment. For some it worked out, for others it did not. When you make a bad investment, it is not the Governments fault to bail the investors fault. That is what created this anomaly....PURE GREED.
Now let them correct accordingly. Its too bad some families are going to get thrown out on the streets. Assistance should be in place for them ONLY. Banks or Brokers should compromise a viable solution for the struggling consumer. It is in their best interest to get some money back instead of a vacant house they hold for foreclosure that they'll be lucky to liquidate for 60 cents on the dollar. There has been talk of converting mortgages in default into rentals at a lowered price for the buyers that had little to no equity in the house to begin with. The bank will inevitable own the property and get some of their loaned cash back and a family has a roof still over their heads. This makes alot of sense to me.
I bought my first house when I was 22 years old in the early 90's when housing was struggling. I saved enough money to put 20% down to avoid PMI payments. It was a tough thing to do at the time. I made alot of sacrifices. I worked 2 jobs and finished up getting my degree. My mortgage payment was 2.2x my annual gross income and I thought I was pushing it and I had no car note. Just a used beater. I had no parents alive in my adult years to educate me. I simply bought a book to guide me and understand the housing process. Now its 14 years later. My GS grade is up 8 more notches, I live in my 2nd home, which I mortgaged for 1x myself and my wifes annual income, we have 2 kids. Not to toot my own horn but That is the way it should be done IMO.
I am kind of glad things are correcting. I feel my house and others around it should (and probably will correct 25% downward).
IMO, It will allow for a healthy market in which housing will be purely family oriented. Speculation should NEVER HAVE A PART IN HOUSING.
Now another family can live the American dream when things sort itself out in time.
I am truely sorry for those with good intensions that bought at the top. :notrust:
I do not want the Government to bail out people who are in over their heads. The lendors that financed people for upto 5x their annual incomes should absorb their losses. The Speculators should as well.
This unfortunately has to be uniform across the board without exception. They wanted to trade housing like a stock investment. For some it worked out, for others it did not. When you make a bad investment, it is not the Governments fault to bail the investors fault. That is what created this anomaly....PURE GREED.
Now let them correct accordingly. Its too bad some families are going to get thrown out on the streets. Assistance should be in place for them ONLY. Banks or Brokers should compromise a viable solution for the struggling consumer. It is in their best interest to get some money back instead of a vacant house they hold for foreclosure that they'll be lucky to liquidate for 60 cents on the dollar. There has been talk of converting mortgages in default into rentals at a lowered price for the buyers that had little to no equity in the house to begin with. The bank will inevitable own the property and get some of their loaned cash back and a family has a roof still over their heads. This makes alot of sense to me.
I bought my first house when I was 22 years old in the early 90's when housing was struggling. I saved enough money to put 20% down to avoid PMI payments. It was a tough thing to do at the time. I made alot of sacrifices. I worked 2 jobs and finished up getting my degree. My mortgage payment was 2.2x my annual gross income and I thought I was pushing it and I had no car note. Just a used beater. I had no parents alive in my adult years to educate me. I simply bought a book to guide me and understand the housing process. Now its 14 years later. My GS grade is up 8 more notches, I live in my 2nd home, which I mortgaged for 1x myself and my wifes annual income, we have 2 kids. Not to toot my own horn but That is the way it should be done IMO.
I am kind of glad things are correcting. I feel my house and others around it should (and probably will correct 25% downward).
IMO, It will allow for a healthy market in which housing will be purely family oriented. Speculation should NEVER HAVE A PART IN HOUSING.
Now another family can live the American dream when things sort itself out in time.
I am truely sorry for those with good intensions that bought at the top. :notrust:
phillyfed
Member
Again with housing....
-I thought Mr. Paulson measured his words well. Looks like the Fed is going to help to a point with families struggling to pay their mortgages. Banks have to be more flexible here as well, its in their best interest as alot of housing thats on the brink of foreclosing is already down 15-30% in value in some locations. I wonder just how transparent the Fed program will be with Banks-Consumer home loans?
-Looks like we are starting to see a price put on new housing development. I think it was Morgan Stanley that is dealing for 40 cents on the dollar of the original investment for undeveloped land by some Homebuilders. Its a start......Some referance for mark to market. Heard this on Bloomberg radio.
Back to the markets....
IFT'd today from 50% F and 50% G to 100% G........I was suprised by the Pop today in Bonds at the open. Actually the past couple of trading days has been very bond friendly. My original intention was to do an IFT to 100% all G for todays lucky penny but I didnt get a chance to make an IFT on Friday in time. Lucked out thou and collected a few more pennies.
Ive been top heavy with QID as the S&P approaches 1490 and will continue to daytrade that when I get the chance but will also trade the Q's when we sell off. I see us in a very tight trading range here until Jan '08. 1430-1490 rules IMO; Trade this range. When things start settling out and I think they slowly will starting next Qtr., we are gonna rocket up to 1700 on the S&P by the end of next year IMO. Despite all the bad news, I am impressed how well this market has held and the valuations remain low from a modern day(1980+) perspective. Theres alot of money floating around the world that will be coming home next year.
-I thought Mr. Paulson measured his words well. Looks like the Fed is going to help to a point with families struggling to pay their mortgages. Banks have to be more flexible here as well, its in their best interest as alot of housing thats on the brink of foreclosing is already down 15-30% in value in some locations. I wonder just how transparent the Fed program will be with Banks-Consumer home loans?
-Looks like we are starting to see a price put on new housing development. I think it was Morgan Stanley that is dealing for 40 cents on the dollar of the original investment for undeveloped land by some Homebuilders. Its a start......Some referance for mark to market. Heard this on Bloomberg radio.
Back to the markets....
IFT'd today from 50% F and 50% G to 100% G........I was suprised by the Pop today in Bonds at the open. Actually the past couple of trading days has been very bond friendly. My original intention was to do an IFT to 100% all G for todays lucky penny but I didnt get a chance to make an IFT on Friday in time. Lucked out thou and collected a few more pennies.
Ive been top heavy with QID as the S&P approaches 1490 and will continue to daytrade that when I get the chance but will also trade the Q's when we sell off. I see us in a very tight trading range here until Jan '08. 1430-1490 rules IMO; Trade this range. When things start settling out and I think they slowly will starting next Qtr., we are gonna rocket up to 1700 on the S&P by the end of next year IMO. Despite all the bad news, I am impressed how well this market has held and the valuations remain low from a modern day(1980+) perspective. Theres alot of money floating around the world that will be coming home next year.
phillyfed
Member
Todays action further supports the tight channel we are trading in. No violant moves going either way it appears. The market is buffering in news either way. This is a good sign for the bulls long term. Short term however, I am looking for a move closer to SP1430 before commiting fully into C.
I do like I for an interfund trade for tomorrow. We may get alittle +FV after todays early weakness in the OSMs
The down volume is twice the up volume currently and we are only down slightly.
Im doing a %50 IFT into I for tomorrow in hopes for some FV change.
My account is back to its alltime highs from the 3rd week of October, ignoring the 3 contributions I made to it.
I do like I for an interfund trade for tomorrow. We may get alittle +FV after todays early weakness in the OSMs
The down volume is twice the up volume currently and we are only down slightly.
Im doing a %50 IFT into I for tomorrow in hopes for some FV change.
My account is back to its alltime highs from the 3rd week of October, ignoring the 3 contributions I made to it.
phillyfed
Member
Looks like we test 1490 by weeks end. With all the suprising news accross the board, its good to be in the markets today and tomorrow. Dollar is up big last I checked so we might get the hammer today on -FV on the I. This makes the I a 2 day trade for me as we should get the FV correction back tomorrow. I have a couple of meetings at work before noon today so I'll have to make this decision with the data right now. Its 50I & 50S today
Also....
My Berkshire-B shares are at an all-time high. Some things stay the same....The mans (Buffet) a genius.
Also....
My Berkshire-B shares are at an all-time high. Some things stay the same....The mans (Buffet) a genius.
FogSailing
Well-known member
Probably a good move Philly...
I'm hanging tough through the 11th...I hope I don't regret it...
And I hope Elvis hasn't left the building...
FS
I'm hanging tough through the 11th...I hope I don't regret it...
And I hope Elvis hasn't left the building...
FS
phillyfed
Member
The way we shot off the 1490 level at 2pm was impressive. 1490 was a tug of war from 11:30am-2pm and looked to be a strong ceiling of resistance. Now it could be support for a rally up to 1530... If I could have made my IFT a little later in the day, like I can in other accounts, I would have held in 100% tomorrow.
Im real happy where Im at here thou. Its now about preserving my gains for the rest of the year. My profits are atleast double that of the S&P YTD, all because we could IFT daily. Its gonna be tough trading on one round trip per month. I do that in my wifes funds with some success, as they too limit transfers but I can trade them at a 4pm deadline and she has a much broader selection of investments with 5-Star fund Managers constantly whipping the S&P. I was also holding an Oil ETF and a China fund that went nuts that helped with the gains.
If the TSP is gonna limit us, they have to broaden our financial choices and move our IFT time back past Noon. If they want to compare the TSP to other pension funds limited trade regulations, then they better match the Variety those private funds offer.
FogSailing
Well-known member
If this can't be resolved through negotiation...I think it will take a class action law suit to bring about a resolution..
I know the characteristics and behaviors of senior execs that run at those levels...They think they are always right and for the most part really hate anyone questioning their judgement or authority. Don't expect any movement from them unless we can push harder..
I personally think getting this into a federal court will be necessary to slow them down...I'm sure there's some slick attorney out there who would love the challenge and enjoy making a name for him/herself out of this..
FS
I know the characteristics and behaviors of senior execs that run at those levels...They think they are always right and for the most part really hate anyone questioning their judgement or authority. Don't expect any movement from them unless we can push harder..
I personally think getting this into a federal court will be necessary to slow them down...I'm sure there's some slick attorney out there who would love the challenge and enjoy making a name for him/herself out of this..
FS
phillyfed
Member
Fog,
This is the same group that hired that AMS IT group to implement daily trading and modernization in 1997. They later sued AMS in 2001 for 350 million to recover costs incurred and punitive damages.
After 8 years they finally get the system right. We now have our accounts modernized to reflect day to day changes. THIS IS WHAT THE TSP BOARD HAS WANTED ALL ALONG. Now, they plan to limit the funds trading and put it back to the stone ages.
From the TSP board, "The new system was to make it easier for the board to make necessary statutory and regulatory changes to the TSP. It would also enable the 2.5 million federal em.ployees with TSP accounts to access their accounts online and more easily move their contributions between different TSP funds. Another 2.3 million people can join the TSP on Oct. 1 when military personnel become eligible. The new TSP system was to be operational by May 2000 but has been delayed at least four times. And as the project's delays have mounted, so have the costs. Originally slated at $30 million, AMS' most recent estimate was nearly $90 million, the board said. The modernization effort has been troubled almost from the start, leaving both sides frustrated. AMS even called on a member of Congress for assistance in dealing with the board, a company official said."
Heres the link.....http://www.fcw.com/print/7_26/news/74420-1.html
I wonder how many "basis pts" they cost the fund with this decision?
WHAT ARE THEY DOING??? I question their competance AND YES, I THINK A LAWYER WOULD CHOMP AT THE BIT TO MAKE A NAME FOR HIS/HERSELF
phillyfed
Member
IFT to 100% G for Monday. I'll probably go F on Tuesday as the rate cut announcements been made. The markets will selloff 25 basis pts hard. 50 is priced in IMO and I'm not sure its warranted with some of the recent data released. However BushCo will have a strong influence on the Fed and you know he wants 50. Why wouldnt he continue his policy of selling out our childrens future for current artificial market gains? (Anybody else read the Greenspan book?)
Ask yourself this question, Do you really think we are going to go to new ALL-TIME highs by this years end? If you answered Yes, I'd be interested in knowing why. I wont disagree with your opinion. Just curious.
The past couple of weeks have been great! Im getting out when all is rosy. IMO this is much like the 3rd week of October here. Good news is priced in IMO and we are ignoring legitimate risk that lies ahead. WE ARE NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE DOW & S&P (A few % pts. off)
Im a contrarian, dont let my current market gloom spoil your profits. I could be wrong here.
Ask yourself this question, Do you really think we are going to go to new ALL-TIME highs by this years end? If you answered Yes, I'd be interested in knowing why. I wont disagree with your opinion. Just curious.
The past couple of weeks have been great! Im getting out when all is rosy. IMO this is much like the 3rd week of October here. Good news is priced in IMO and we are ignoring legitimate risk that lies ahead. WE ARE NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE DOW & S&P (A few % pts. off)
Im a contrarian, dont let my current market gloom spoil your profits. I could be wrong here.
phillyfed
Member
F today....Stayed in F tomorrow, 100% as well.
I was suprised by yesterdays upward movement. Thought it be flat going into today. I took the G penny yesterday.
I wasnt suprised at all by the 25 basis pt announcement and the huge selloff on the news. I wrote this last Friday.
Its a good move by Bernanke and the Fed board. The credit markets have shown them no respect in the past after aggresive rate cuts and the Libor rate ignoring them. It also puts the Fed back in control of their rate cut policy rather then the markets Fed funds futures dictating the markets and upcoming Fed actions. Kudlow can cry all he wants. The rich spoiled kid doesnt always get his way. I'll enjoy his crying tonight.
I'll see how the S&P behaves tomorrow. 1460 should hold support. I'll probably buy some C tommorrow.
I was suprised by yesterdays upward movement. Thought it be flat going into today. I took the G penny yesterday.
I wasnt suprised at all by the 25 basis pt announcement and the huge selloff on the news. I wrote this last Friday.
Its a good move by Bernanke and the Fed board. The credit markets have shown them no respect in the past after aggresive rate cuts and the Libor rate ignoring them. It also puts the Fed back in control of their rate cut policy rather then the markets Fed funds futures dictating the markets and upcoming Fed actions. Kudlow can cry all he wants. The rich spoiled kid doesnt always get his way. I'll enjoy his crying tonight.
I'll see how the S&P behaves tomorrow. 1460 should hold support. I'll probably buy some C tommorrow.
felixthecat
Member
I'm with ya. Was in the G fund yesterday and today. Had the same belief you did right down to some of the CNBC analysts who tried really hard to convince for a 1/2 point rate cut. I'm glad the FED didn't sell the farm to get the cow. 
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