Phillyfed's Account Talk

[phillyfed]

Backing out 70% at todays COB......Wheres the capitulation at?

Big money comes in Monday and sets it straight either way

They set it straight alright. I am grateful for last Friday's strong close on weak volume. A great opportunity to get out even in retrospect. I should have got out 100%. Oh well, I'm holdin steady with 70% on the sidelines. Im comfortable with a 30% position in the TSP. I am not taking the bait and getting in early again. I wait for some major capitulation. All indexes are now down 10% from their highs. The correction has been made as predicted. Im afraid this is going to only get worse from here. We cant stop selling off in 2% increments over and over. From a technical standpoint we need real capitulation.

I've got some index puts, and a smaller-than-usual
long position at the moment in my other funds to hedge. Keeping an eye on the Vix. The volume and volatility are low, suggesting a bit more of a protracted downturn

EITHER WE BOUNCE TOMORROW or its 1370 on the S&P as FedGolfer posted IMO. In proportion, Thats a quick 300 pt shed off the current Dow and 50 on the Nasdaq. That would equal roughly 35 points off the S&P at todays 1406 close.

I hope a large portion of the TSP'ers here have been waiting for this opportunity and have funds to buy in alittle at these levels. Technically. it doesnt look good for tomorrow either but this is the time to watch for that huge down day when everyone hates stocks and sells at the open. We can put the money to work buy Noon. These head fake updays only to end with sell programs day after day are killers. I'd rather see the Dow down 500+ pts immediately and have the stockmarket all over the news as the Big story. Thats always a great time to buy, no matter how bad things look.

BTW, the Libor rate info released this morning is killing the Fed. Their bullets are shooting blanks. They have to be real concerned.

Good luck.

 

[phillyfed]

credit:Fabijo

 

[fedgolfer]

EITHER WE BOUNCE TOMORROW or its 1370 on the S&P as FedGolfer posted IMO. In proportion, Thats a quick 300 pt shed off the current Dow and 50 on the Nasdaq. That would equal roughly 35 points off the S&P at todays 1406 close.

I was originally thinking today would be the capitulation day, but now i'm not so sure. the falling wedge in the SPY for the last month is definitely getting near its limit, the point of support and resistance lines in that wedge intersect around 1370'ish... a little too picture perfect. I think we may have another quick mini-bounce (or DCB)... the closer that capitulation day to the Fed annoucement, the more effective the capitulation day will be for Wall street getting what it wants out of the Fed. If its really obvious and there's a capitulation day followed by some institutional sized accumulation , they won't have pressure to cut 50 basis point and I think .25 will be the call. That's obviously some wild-a$$-guessing though.

As for today, I agree with you at this early point -- volume and price action suggests this is a bounce in SPY and not enough momentum to break out of the upper line of resistance in the rising wedge. QQQQ's volume appears to be well above yesterday, but still not so heavy to suggest we saw real retail capitulation at yesterday's close.

 

[phillyfed]

Looks like some short covering to me at this point. The last half hour today shows us the way we are headed short-term. Im holding my position in stocks at 30% in the TSP. Im holding about 65% stocks in my other funds I cant get out of day to day. I dont mind. A big slice of that is being managed by William Danoff's Contrafund. The guy crushes the S&P every year. For ex., he was down only 1.2% yesterday, while the markets were down 2%. On up days, he outperforms the market consistantly. Funds up 23% over the last 12 months. Its been closed for 3 years now to new investors. Glad I got in just before that.

We should be getting a +FV on the I fund today. I'll rotate out of I and go into all C still at 30% long.

Again, the last half hour today should show us the way short term. Dow is currently uo 200 pts. Its too early to tell if we break out of the protracted downtrend.

 

[fedgolfer]

... is that a CEF? What are the restrictions/rules/associated fees?

 

[fedgolfer]

Nice close!!!! The SPY is so close to the upper resistance line on the falling wedge... we may get our answer before the IFT deadline tomorrow on a breakout above that line if we gap open or push through it tomorrow AM. Although there was nice volume, it still wasn't the exclamation point we were looking for... hoping for some technical confirmation tomorrow AM before the IFT deadline.

 

[phillyfed]

... is that a CEF? What are the restrictions/rules/associated fees?

Not a CEF fund. Im not playing with that kind of money to get in one of them. Im still a young man without an inheritance in my future managing funds in the VERY low 6 figures at this point thats house rich (atleast I thought I was)

The fund is run through Fidelity. It got so large from re-invests and William Danoffs performce they had to close the fund to new subscribers. Its the largest mutual fund in the world I believe at around 80 Bil. Its ticker is FCNTX.

Good news is he opened a new fund called Fidelity Advisor New Insights (FNIAX). Its tracks the Contrafund but is much smaller and nimble and is open to new investors. I highly recommend this fund. I have 2 kids, that are age 6 and 9 (529 plan) and 2 nieces I run a trust fund for. The New Insights fund is the core holding along with FXI (Chinese ETF) I bought at $55 and is up to $180 last I checked well off its highs. Their funds have exploded the past few years.

And how about that close? It wanted to selloff around 3pm but finally held up strong into the close. Can we get another one tomorrow for some confirmation?? Im just about 50% in stocks with all accounts combined. Still holding out for that Capitulation day either tomorrow, next month or next year. Its gonna happen and Im gonna have the cash to play it.

 

[phillyfed]

Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn, just hinted that the Fed will cut rates Dec. 11 or gave the impression that hes in tune with the market and the strong possibility of substantial credit deteriation in the future. On CNBC they are talking about a 50 basis pt cut now. Futures on the S&P and Naz shot up after his "Fedspeak" was released. Looks like we will rally for a second day in a row dare I say despite alot of hawkish talk this morning on CNBC about credit concerns.

It seems one person after another this morning is slamming the markets risk to reward and its all doom and gloom again. Its clear they want the retail investor to capitulate here. They are pounding the table for Bonds

Durable goods number is coming up. I'd imagine the Vice chairman of the Fed"speak" already knows this number with his bearish comments this morning. I'd be hedging at a weak number at this point.

EDIT: Its confirmed: Durable goods number was pathetic as expected

 

[Bullitt]

So are we still going to see that capitulation day? IMO, Unless we close below 1400 don't bet on it.

Why did we have to gap up today? I hate gaps.

 

[phillyfed]

Some good retail info here....

CyberMonday was great!

As of 2 p.m. ET yesterday, North American traffic had reached 2,950,806 visitors per minute, a 37 percent increase over 2006's Cyber Monday peak for North America. At the same time, global traffic reached 4,608,640 visitors per minute, a 30 percent increase over the 2006 peak.
>

The markets are expecting a 20% increase this year for online sales. Looks like we are going to easily surpass that

http://www.akamai.com/html/about/press/r...

For those that dont know, Akamai is the worlds largest Internet Content Distribution Service. They also monitor worldwide internet traffic AT REALTIME. These are really important numbers given at real-time.

I am long Akamai as well

 

[fedgolfer]

i'm thinking we'll see the highs this AM, to set up for good afternoon buys in trading accounts for a santa rally -- hopefully. I don't think we'll see that capitulation this side of Christmas/new year. We've broken to the upside of that falling wedge, like we assumed. So plan B is in effect and I'm gonna be buying 100% into TSP stocks hoping that upper line in the wedge is now support... which I expect to test and hold this afternoon. But now that I've said that I'm sure we'll capitulate to zero on the S&P!

 

[phillyfed]

So are we still going to see that capitulation day? IMO, Unless we close below 1400 don't bet on it.

Why did we have to gap up today? I hate gaps.

It could be tomorrow, next month, or early next year. When the markets dipped in March and August we had that big day but we didnt quite hit a 10% correction then. Presently, we did the technical 10% correction in a protracted fashion. That usually indicates a longer and much deeper Market correction. IMO, Its not over yet but if things hold up today, I like everybody else love the green numbers in my account. Im about 50% long in stocks counting all accounts. Just light on my flexible TSP and ready to pounce if we get that really ugly day. Im betting on that happening inevitably.

 

[phillyfed]

i'm thinking we'll see the highs this AM, to set up for good afternoon buys in trading accounts for a santa rally -- hopefully. I don't think we'll see that capitulation this side of Christmas/new year. We've broken to the upside of that falling wedge, like we assumed. So plan B is in effect and I'm gonna be buying 100% into TSP stocks hoping that upper line in the wedge is now support... which I expect to test and hold this afternoon. But now that I've said that I'm sure we'll capitulate to zero on the S&P!

Late yesterday (3:58PM EST) in my wife's Aetna acct(the one I cant trade much but can trade at 4pm deadline), I moved 100% into stocks. I had 35% allocated in Bonds since early Oct. That 35% turned into 38% of the account allocation as of yesterday. I also sold a Natural Resource fund I had a 10% holding in that has performed real well (Oil). I think that has topped out. 2008 will be the year of the Hybrid IMO. OPEC's/Traders greed is gonna kill them in the long run and I love it. I mentioned in another thread that I traded in my gas guzzling 2006 Acura MDX for a new Altima Hybrid that gets nearly 40 mpg in the city?

So my none TSP...

I re-allocated at 60% Fidelity Contrafund. 25% Oppenheimer WW Growth and 15% Oppenheimer Emerging Opportunities Fund(Huge China holdings). I went from holding 7 funds and consolidated them into 3. I hope the trade went through with todays action.

I am going to keep holdong 30% stocks in my TSP. I like having the cash to play just in case we get that day.



FedGolfer, did you look into those William Danoff funds at Fidelity? Exp ratio is 0.90%. It pays a dividend as well. It has substantially outperformed the S&P for 1 yr, 3 years, 5 yrs and 10 yrs.

 

[Birchtree]

You won't feel fully liberated until you taste the fun of individual stocks - that's where the danger and potential reside.

 

[phillyfed]

You won't feel fully liberated until you taste the fun of individual stocks - that's where the danger and potential reside.

Birch, I trade in and out of about 5-10 stocks at any given time in a sharebuilder and Schwab account. I have a Bias for Tech, since thats my line of work.

I have been long Berkshire-B for years. Thats a staple. I know its more of a fund thou

Im also long AKAM, GOOG, APPL, CSCO and just today bought ORCL as they are ready to compete w/ VMWare with their new product line in virtualization and they are a great Global play. My micro-cap play is NTWK. A Pakistani IT co. based in Calabas, CA. Its a little beaten up with the political situation in Pakistan but its popping nicely today last I checked.

 

[phillyfed]

Yesterdays IFT in my wifes 401k went through I received a confirmation. 100% in stock funds today. I wish we could trade the TSP at 4pm EST. We would have made a killing yesterday. I guess thats why Aetna limits trades to 2 round trips per qtr.

Anyway, I am hoping we close strong into todays close like yesterday. I am selling my entire TSP position in C. I am taking profits. While I think we end the year between 1470-90 on the S&P, I dont see us doing it THIS WEEK!! We will not see a v chart IMO. Yesterday and Today have shown some real strength in the market FINALLY. However, I do believe we could be down just as much tomorrow. Things havent changed fundamentally. The houses in my neighborhood that were selling briskly at 500k last year are being reduced to 425k or more and yet they sit. The credit crunch is real and its not going to stop this qtr. or next. Those write-offs we see are Quarterly based and will continue. Thats real.

I am out at today close in the TSP after enjoying big gains 3 out of the last 4 trading sessions and Im nearly even from my TSP Oct. 20th high. I'll keep milking the day to day trades until I get my letter from TSP.

I am 100% long in my wifes account as of yesterdays close and I will hold that position until next January at the earliest as I cant make another trade in it.

 

[Birchtree]

We are in new territory for the current bull market. It's good that you are not an Ebbchartist. More heads are better than any system.

 

[phillyfed]

Why did we have to gap up today? I hate gaps.

(OT) Gaps....Did you say something about Gaps?? With all the money Michael Strahan has made why doesnt he just get this fixed? I could stuff a chicklet in that mug :laugh:

 

[phillyfed]

We are in new territory for the current bull market. It's good that you are not an Ebbchartist. More heads are better than any system.

Ebb was alright until he went public :laugh:

Seriously thou. I think he was onto something. When we were trading in a tight range, his system was proven effective. However, when the .VIX goes over 23 or so, your better off flipping a coin IMHO.

 

[phillyfed]

This goes back 30 years to see how December typically reacts after a bearish November just to see if anything stuck out. Interestingly enough I found that over the last 30 years there have been 8 bearish Novembers and not one of those occurrences was followed by a lower December.

Source: Seeking Alpha