Phillyfed's Account Talk

[caymanbrac12]

F today....Stayed in F tomorrow, 100% as well.

I was suprised by yesterdays upward movement. Thought it be flat going into today. I took the G penny yesterday.

I wasnt suprised at all by the 25 basis pt announcement and the huge selloff on the news. I wrote this last Friday.

Its a good move by Bernanke and the Fed board. The credit markets have shown them no respect in the past after aggresive rate cuts and the Libor rate ignoring them. It also puts the Fed back in control of their rate cut policy rather then the markets Fed funds futures dictating the markets and upcoming Fed actions. Kudlow can cry all he wants. The rich spoiled kid doesnt always get his way. I'll enjoy his crying tonight.
I'll see how the S&P behaves tomorrow. 1460 should hold support. I'll probably buy some C tommorrow.

No offense there Phillyfed - great city by the way - but alot of very smart people thought the Fed made a mistake especially with there follow up statement and its confusion. If anything the discount rate should have been reduced more in my opinion and alot of people who actually work for their money got tagged hard by the Feds move. I seriously doubt Larry Kudlow has much to worry about financially and a lot of "not rich spoiled kids" who participate on this board got hurt ( some alot) by making the wrong bet who work for the feds so why not try to think about what you just said and maybe put it in perspective because it doesn't make you sound like "the nicest guy in the world" and in my opinion kinda of a horse's ass no offense. :laugh:

Try visiting Bulkowksi's website on technical analysis. Good Luck.

Greg

 

[phillyfed]

No offense there Phillyfed - great city by the way - but alot of very smart people thought the Fed made a mistake especially with there follow up statement and its confusion. If anything the discount rate should have been reduced more in my opinion and alot of people who actually work for their money got tagged hard by the Feds move. I seriously doubt Larry Kudlow has much to worry about financially and a lot of "not rich spoiled kids" who participate on this board got hurt ( some alot) by making the wrong bet who work for the feds so why not try to think about what you just said and maybe put it in perspective because it doesn't make you sound like "the nicest guy in the world" and in my opinion kinda of a horse's ass no offense. :laugh:

Try visiting Bulkowksi's website on technical analysis. Good Luck.

Greg

Cayman,

Why would I have taken offense to that comment? Im from Philly. There is thicker skin on these bones here. :laugh:

Theres always an opinion one way or another. I RESPECT THAT. Thats what makes a market. I think most people expected a 25 basis pt cut (with a Bull's chance of a 50) with some of the recent benign financial news then add in the 7.7% return in the markets the past 2 weeks, equals a selloff on the news IMO.

I didnt hear the Feds announcement that went with the cut. I couldnt I work a weird schedule and was and still am at work. From what I heard thou, it was leaning to the Fed easing further with more weak economic news to come.

Believe me, I wont confuse Kudlow and all the other Wall St. corporate welfare recipients with any Fed posting here nor imply that. I never gave a hint of that WITH ANY POST I MADE. If you followed Kudlow from 1998 and on, Kudlow would sell out his grandkids for 50% basis cuts and money today. That type of thinking has got us in this mess. We went from a tech bubble pumped by wall street (Kudlow), to a housing bubble, caused by Federal reserve bailouts of said Bubble (mainly cheap money and cashout refi's). Now WE are paying the piper. WE meaning all of us, including our Dollar bill. I lost thousands today myself in other accounts and housing values. I am not enjoying this. I suggest reading Greenspan's book for starters. Not all Fed decisions are done at the Fed table.


Ed

 

[nnuut]

No offense there Phillyfed - great city by the way - but alot of very smart people thought the Fed made a mistake especially with there follow up statement and its confusion. If anything the discount rate should have been reduced more in my opinion and alot of people who actually work for their money got tagged hard by the Feds move. I seriously doubt Larry Kudlow has much to worry about financially and a lot of "not rich spoiled kids" who participate on this board got hurt ( some alot) by making the wrong bet who work for the feds so why not try to think about what you just said and maybe put it in perspective because it doesn't make you sound like "the nicest guy in the world" and in my opinion kinda of a horse's ass no offense. :laugh:

Try visiting Bulkowksi's website on technical analysis. Good Luck.

Greg

It will come back, you know it will recover before the end of the year!

 

[presskh]

No offense there Phillyfed - great city by the way - but alot of very smart people thought the Fed made a mistake especially with there follow up statement and its confusion. If anything the discount rate should have been reduced more in my opinion and alot of people who actually work for their money got tagged hard by the Feds move. I seriously doubt Larry Kudlow has much to worry about financially and a lot of "not rich spoiled kids" who participate on this board got hurt ( some alot) by making the wrong bet who work for the feds so why not try to think about what you just said and maybe put it in perspective because it doesn't make you sound like "the nicest guy in the world" and in my opinion kinda of a horse's ass no offense. :laugh:

Try visiting Bulkowksi's website on technical analysis. Good Luck.

I'm with Phillyfed. I don't see why everyone acted surprised at the 25 basis point cut - 12%'s poll had about 60% of those responding believing that this would be the case. I thought so too and voted as such. I was surprised somewhat that the market tanked as much as it did today. I thought it would stay relatively flat today with this level of fed easing and start to tank in another day or so - I guess the market had a 50 basis point cut factored in, rather that the 25 point one.
Greg[/quot

 

[TRAFFIC_DOG]

This is exactly what would have happened w/ a 50 basis pt cut.
Look at the run up prior to......
Classic sell the news.....why?......
'Cause we just were not in a position to go higher.
.25 was baked in....and as always: over baked!
.50 was baked in, along with.... "see, this proves how bad the Fed thinks things are going to get". = sell off at .50 too.

 

[phillyfed]

Heres a longshot penny stock here. Trading at a whooping 42 cents and up 8% today on low volume. BLNKF.PK

They do video searches that Google can't pull off as efficiently. Theres talk of YouTube and Facebook sharing ad revenue to popular third party home videos that get high traffic views. Which means any avg. Joe can make a buck on originality and talent. This should expedentally cause Video searches take off and any mention of this stock in the same breath as Google or buyout should propel this.

Do your own due diligence.

http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?symbol=BLNKF.PK

I disclose, I own a couple thousand shares.

 

[phillyfed]

Theres more to the markets then just cheap rate cuts. Rate cuts are a mere vehicle to create liquidity and have been ignored lately shortly after by falling Libor rates. The markets are treating rate cuts as a crack cocaine fix. That isnt what a healthy market does. Macro economics means a heck of alot more then a cheap rate cut and will override what the Fed does in time.

But, atleast for today, we get our money back and the Wall Street Institutions get their fix.

 

[Birchtree]

Hey, this is definitely more exciting than a new girlfriend.

 

[phillyfed]

Hey, this is definitely more exciting than a new girlfriend.

Good thing we dont allow intraday trading on the TSP. Imagine the whipsawing. :laugh:

Atleast alot of people are stuck in yesterdays-todays early trade if they were in stocks. Unless of course they got out yesterday....OUCH!

 

[phillyfed]

60G-40S IFT today.

Technicals between 1460-1490. We close below 1490 today after todays opening pop and thats bearish. Close above 1490 and we should see some good gains tomorrow, esp. in the small/mids

 

[phillyfed]

Here are some cyclical statistics that always need to be in the back of your mind when investing.....

The most profitable months are January, December and November (in that order).

The first trading day of each month is always the best (by a long shot). Over the last nine years the Dow has gained more points on the first trading day of the month than all the other days of the month combined. From September 2, 1997 through June 1, 2006, the Dow gained 3637 points. It is incredible that 4420 points were gained on the first trading days of these 106 months! The remaining 2095 trading days lost 782 points. So much for buy and hold. A single trading day - less than 5% of the total trading days available - produced all the returns

Selling on Fridays can be a mistake - Mondays and Tuesdays are the most bullish days of the week (Buying a severely negative Nasdaq composite at the close on a Friday afternoon, or after the open on Monday, is almost always a winning trade of 2 to 3%).


A bullish time for the Nasdaq is the summer rally that occurs between June 25 and July 20th. August and September are the worst months, except for August 2000 (one of the best on record), and we all know what happened after that. August and September are for vacationing with the family, period. If the mavens of Wall Street know this and turn off their PCs for the sake of the Poconos(Thats were I'm at at) or the Hamptons - why shouldn't we? Statistically you won't miss much while you're gone. Besides - even if there is a little up/down blip while you're away - the market usually brings it right back down after Labor Day to where it was when you left.

In conclusion, next time you're sitting around the dinner table with neighbors and friends and this old saw gets trotted out, "You can't time the market. Just hold for the long term", assure them the nonsense of that statement. It was probably invented by money managers (during the great bull market of the 1990s) to keep customers in line and their monthly fees coming in.

 

[Eldritch Flatus]

Phillyfed, thank you for that!:nuts:

 

[phillyfed]

Phillyfed, thank you for that!:nuts:

Always welcome.....Hope it helps. Its a keeper for me.

 

[phillyfed]

The Feds 25 basis pt cut was the right thing to do, with the high inflation numbers and now the Libor rates are following suit to the down side, looks like the Fed knew what they were doing the whole time AND OF COURSE THEY HAVE ANOTHER BULLET TO SHOOT LATER. The idiot Kudlow cult has egg on their faces as usual. Things never change.


Selling on Fridays can be a mistake - Mondays and Tuesdays are the most bullish days of the week (Buying a severely negative Nasdaq composite at the close on a Friday afternoon, or after the open on Monday, is almost always a winning trade of 2 to 3%). Especially when your not in on said selloff.


Putting in all my chips for Monday. From 0-100 in 4.6 seconds.

Good weekend.

 

[phillyfed]

IFT to 50F 50G at todays close from 60C 40G yesterday. I'll take anything I can get out of the market today. Im 100% long in other accounts that are in good hands with great fund Managers. Technicals look ugly and the late day selloffs look awfully familiar.

WATCHOUT if the Russell2K breaks 720. IMO, Its a leading indicator downward and I'd expect us to break August lows following that in all indices. I'd also avoid the I-fund as well, as the dollar has broken upward swiftly, although we should see a nice pop today as a correction FV is expected in I.

I cant see us breaking 1515 on the S&P and 14000 on the Dow this year.

Bought some QID at todays open and will daytrade it.

GL

 

[kaitlinsnana]

I'm looking for a reason to get back in.

Gail

 

[phillyfed]

Me too. Hope it works...

Took a beatin obviously , Made a little back on Tues. Then took some Bond money today and hopefully tomorrow. I'll get my losses back on the long side when I play it back up like I've been doing over and over. If you made about 8 trades this year at some ideal times, you would have made about 20% without much risk. Then take a dozen or so dips into G (on penny day) and F (when the 10's in the low 100's). I caught the huge gain (40%S) on the deadcat bounce in November on a one day dip. Wasnt so lucky this time and got slammed for it on Monday.

Good money is being made in bonds. I have been documenting my trades here for approx. 2 months. Some of it in others threads by mistake due to my ignorance. I have had 4 or 5 losing IFT's in total. I count missing a market rally as a losing IFT and obviously hitting one and banking profits as a winning IFT. I was also long for most of that 7% pop starting in late Nov.-early Dec. The bond markets have been adding alot of 3 to 8 penny return days. They are a viable trade as well.

I have to say, I am impressed at the strength of the market, even amazed. Theres talk of recession, then the subprime mess that have carried over to the mainstream credit markets, worse housing numbers on record (1985) and weakened dollar then throw in stagflation, $100 Oil, Geo-Political concerns and the Feds general inability to keep Libor in step with rate cuts, I am astonished we are trading just under 7% below our All-time highs. I have to believe expectations of seasonality are keeping this afloat. We are getting close to a fourth touch of the March/August/October low pins in the charts. The fourth time it hits, chartists are claiming 1370-1260's in the S&P are doable if the perfect storm should arise. Well it looks like the perfect storm to me is on the horizon and I dont see any panic. Just, long exagerrated and protracted downturns without classic capitulation. Theres gonna come a point when people get sick of losing their money in a collective fashion. Still patiently waiting it out.

 

[phillyfed]

Back from vacation.

Been in bonds over the holidays. Missed the X-mas mini rally. We are back in the gutter again as predicted. Added 5%C 60%F 35%G on my Monday IFT. Upped it to 15%C today with todays plunge. Gonna DCA again with diligence and pickup shares cheap then dump them again for profit. Whats the rush with this stagnate market? I'm making money in Bonds and G penny and the S&P wont be a buy until sub 1415 (if it holds again)

 

[akpackfan]

Hey Phillyfed,

Do you plan on being tracked in the autotracker or at least posting your moves in your account talk thread before IFT cutoff time? You seem pretty savvy on strategy in this kind of market. Thanks.

 

[phillyfed]

Hey Phillyfed,

Do you plan on being tracked in the autotracker or at least posting your moves in your account talk thread before IFT cutoff time? You seem pretty savvy on strategy in this kind of market. Thanks.

AK, Thanks for those kind words.

I wont be able to post daily here with my hectic and unpredictable schedule. I'd imagine that would make tracking impossible. Plus the transfer limits will really make this a limited art. Its too bad. If you look at some of the documented returns, some users did a remarkable job at beating the market. I wouldnt have made the top ten personally but I did alot better then the S&P.

Best of luck. Im still holding 15% domestic equities and overweight Bonds on my TSP and 68% domestic and 32% foreign and emerging markets in my wifes Aetna account that offers great funds to invest in but I can only trade a couple times a qtr.