Phillyfed's Account Talk

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DAILY
TOTAL MONEY FLOW
BLOCK TRADES
Companies bought on weakness today- per WSJ Online




PriceChg% Chg1-wk
% chg Money FlowTick
UpTick
DownUp/Down RatioMoney FlowTick
UpTick
DownUp/Down Ratio
Google (GOOG) $637.65-16.17-2.470.92$124.97$1,113.65$988.68113/100$133.96$133.96$0.000/100
SPDR EngySelSct (XLE) 73.91-3.19-4.14-2.5662.95247.19184.25134/10078.90118.3439.44300/100
CVS Caremark (CVS) 36.02-0.31-0.85-4.0248.16139.4391.27153/10046.5580.1633.61238/100
CiscoSys (CSCO) 25.85-0.44-1.671.6545.67159.23113.57140/10051.8275.7923.97316/100
EMC Cp (EMC) 16.68-0.12-0.714.0541.23187.25146.02128/10036.1778.5142.35185/100
sTrackGldTr (GLD) 87.99-1.55-1.731.3938.91309.88270.97114/10038.2588.0049.75177/100
HlthcarSel SPDR (XLV) 35.78-0.41-1.130.0332.9441.008.06509/10032.4132.410.000/100
Amgen (AMGN) 47.38-0.55-1.152.2731.6675.3643.70172/10031.7136.394.68777/100
CapOneFnl (COF) 42.00-1.07-2.48-2.7630.88116.1885.31136/10027.1742.5015.33277/100
iShrMSEMU (EZU) 112.86-3.80-3.26-2.4829.9439.399.45417/10029.2429.240.000/100
CocaCola (KO) 63.61-0.69-1.070.0627.85132.02104.18127/10020.5126.676.16433/100
US OilFd (USO) 72.78-1.47-1.98-4.3126.0463.9637.91169/10022.3324.502.181,125/100
QwestComm (Q) 5.52-0.28-4.83-9.8025.6237.2111.59321/10024.6330.415.78526/100
Deere (DE) 92.36-2.33-2.464.8823.88174.37150.50116/10019.5425.706.16417/100
Aetna (AET) 56.27-1.57-2.71-3.5523.2376.6453.41144/10024.9027.052.141,262/100
RetailHldrs (RTH) 85.99-1.01-1.16-0.8922.6194.5871.97131/10025.1125.970.863,019/100
WillmSnoma (WSM) 20.01-2.19-9.86-13.9422.5146.1923.68195/10021.2227.075.85463/100
McDonalds (MCD) 53.76-1.20-2.18-5.8222.42111.4188.99125/10022.0225.593.57716/100
ScheringPl (SGP) 23.78-1.74-6.82-11.4321.11219.89198.78111/10030.51129.3998.87131/100
NewOrntlEdu ADS (EDU) 63.23-17.68-21.85-23.6420.59155.05134.47115/10020.7326.135.40483/100
SonyCp (SNE) 53.78-1.97-3.53-0.7019.9243.1423.22186/10020.3528.137.78362/100
IntrntHldrs (HHH) 53.30-1.76-3.20-3.5819.4623.524.06579/10020.5920.590.000/100i
iShrMSGer (EWG) 33.77-0.96-2.76-1.8017.9426.368.42313/10020.5121.360.852,502/100
Bristow (BRS) 55.78-1.27-2.230.4717.7221.583.86558/10017.1317.130.000/100
Teradata (TDC) 25.11-0.41-1.61-5.7417.4525.848.40308/10019.6421.121.471,435/100
BerkHathwy A (BRKA) 129,100.00-1,310.10-1.00-3.4316.9546.7729.82157/1000.000.000.000/100
 
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Companies sold on strength today-per WSJ



DAILY
TOTAL MONEY FLOW
BLOCK TRADES
CompanyPriceChg% Chg1-wk
% chg Money FlowTick
UpTick
DownUp/Down RatioMoney FlowTick
UpTick
DownUp/Down Ratio
ForestLabs (FRX) $37.820.240.643.14$-15.95$68.98$84.9281/100$-15.26$6.40$21.6630/100
ApldMatl (AMAT) 16.950.110.653.80-14.8153.0167.8278/100-22.778.1730.9426/100
SPDR Brclys TIPS (IPE) 52.140.220.421.17-14.280.4314.703/100-14.370.0014.370/100
UAL Cp (UAUA) 34.571.644.9841.74-12.4338.9951.4276/100-12.445.7518.1832/100
ApolloGp A (APOL) 79.930.010.0117.35-11.0976.0987.1787/100-6.544.5211.0641/100
EquitRes (EQT) 56.490.731.316.06-10.2036.6046.8178/100-11.257.6418.9040/100
NorthrpGrum (NOC) 81.101.581.996.14-9.5252.7362.2685/100-9.085.9515.0340/100
MatriaHlthcr (MATR) 29.344.8719.9020.20-9.0028.3037.3076/100-8.665.2313.8938/100
iShrMSTaiwn (EWT) 14.730.060.416.66-7.6010.9818.5759/100-7.531.889.4120/100
MatsuElec (MC) 20.290.060.304.10-7.592.6810.2726/100-6.280.296.574/100
Comcast spA (CMCSK) 17.580.010.066.29-7.5310.0217.5457/100-7.452.349.7824/100
MetroPCS Comm (PCS) 18.200.191.053.82-7.1913.1720.3665/100-7.325.1612.4841/100
Paychex (PAYX) 33.060.070.21-1.49-7.0012.7619.7665/100-6.061.657.7121/100
ArrisGp (ARRS) 8.390.131.576.74-6.062.458.5129/100-5.890.506.408/100
LbertyGlob A (LBTYA) 39.130.350.908.09-5.9210.6116.5364/100-6.800.006.800/100
BEA Sys (BEAS) 15.580.090.585.56-5.7519.4325.1877/100-5.456.3911.8454/100
SilganHldgs (SLGN) 49.840.390.792.95-5.363.498.8539/100-5.920.926.8513/100
ITT EduclSvc (ESI) 83.711.692.064.43-5.1426.0631.1984/100-6.570.006.570/100
NowestAir (NWA) 17.381.378.5648.93-4.9317.1822.1278/100-5.435.4110.8450/100
AlbertoCl (ACV) 23.300.351.53-3.52-4.784.829.6050/100-4.751.145.8919/100
SPDR LehIntTreas (ITE) 55.840.190.340.78-4.435.9810.4157/100-4.425.589.9956/100
ProShrUSBscMtls (SMN) 44.142.917.06-1.80-4.122.977.0942/100-4.330.004.330/100
WrightMed (WMGI) 28.690.351.24-1.31-3.991.565.5528/100-3.870.003.870/100
UnvlHlthSvc B (UHS) 48.470.290.60-3.45-3.776.4610.2363/100-3.440.003.440/100
PwrShsDB Agrcltr (DBA) 36.580.190.526.03-3.5415.0018.5481/100-1.460.001.460/100
ExpresScrpt (ESRX) 71.230.410.58-6.71-3.4953.0956.5894/100-1.780.001.780/100
PennWstEngyTr (PWE) 27.400.471.754.94-3.3512.6215.9779/100-2.100.002.100/100
RehabCrGp (RHB) 24.510.311.2813.00-3.303.236.5349/100-3.241.214.4527/100
WI Engy (WEC) 47.840.210.44-2.45-3.0413.6116.6582/100-1.711.112.8239/100
TenetHlthcr (THC) 4.440.143.26-6.72-2.9612.0515.0180/100-1.793.134.9164/100
ProShrUlShtRus (TWM) 83.502.553.150.52-2.83188.69191.5299/100-1.680.001.680/100
 
phillyfed said:
Goldman Sachs has been bearish and a known short
Click to expand...

They were calling for S&P 500 to go to 1675 by end of year in mid '07 and changed their outlook once they saw a bad moon rising. GS took a hit but the reason they made out in this subprime mess is because they had the right hedges in place. The Citi's, Bear's and Merrill's didn't hedge properly. They just went all in on the CDO market like it was the World Series of Poker.

It's always darkest before dawn. Capitulation is on the brink.
 
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Market held up well yesterday ending down modestly. I like Thursday and Friday's chances for a gain. Esp. Friday. I may hedge my bets if we dont spike up too much tomorrow and throw all the chips in.

Then Monday we start to selloff all over again IMO. Its written in stone on the 4 year charts which I believe were confirmed last week to the downside for the 1st time. Lower highs and lower lows. My 10 year old can draw the channel. Those Bollinger bands are getting tightly wounded and its not pointing upward. Can the shorts save this market? If you look at the daily selling and buying on strength, the daytraders and hedgefunds are playing the Dow 12,600 and milking it for every Pt. upwards and downwards. Thats the game thats being played. Ultrashorts index ETFs, QID & QLD

I am a contrarian investor and like to buy when everyone else is selling and vise versa, I just think theres more pain to come and will continue to preserve my capital and wait for more shares to buy on the dollar. Im already in this thing unwantedly thanks to ING but TSP is different and I hold and wait.

IMO, The 3 month downward spiral continues and 50 basis pts is already baked in. So dont expect anything less then a 75 basis pts cut to move the markets and just like the holiday retail numbers were going to surprise to the upside (yeah right) the first qtr.'s numbers will be crap as well with weak guidance ahead.
 
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Been waiting for capitulation for months. I hear it may be knocking. Come to Papa and sell your shares when everyone else is panicking. I'm going long starting tomorrow.
 
Same here Ggal .. just read this on cnnfn:

U.S. markets were closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, but the downbeat mood from last week's market declines there circled through Europe, Asia and the Americas. Britain's benchmark FTSE-100 slumped 5.5 percent to 5,578.20, France's CAC-40 Index tumbled 6.8 percent to 4,744.15, and Germany's blue-chip DAX 30 plunged 7.2 percent to 6,790.19.

In Asia, India's benchmark stock index tumbled 7.4 percent, while Hong Kong's blue-chip Hang Seng index plummeted 5.5 percent to 23,818.86, its biggest percentage drop since the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks.

Canadian stocks fell as well, with the S&P/TSX composite index on the Toronto Stock Exchange down 4 percent in early afternoon trading. In Brazil, stocks plunged 6.9 percent on the main index of Sao Paulo's Bovespa exchange.

Looks like more pain is coming
 
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phillyfed said:
Been waiting for capitulation for months. I hear it may be knocking. Come to Papa and sell your shares when everyone else is panicking. I'm going long starting tomorrow.
Click to expand...

Well you're a braver man than me Charley Brown.:worried:

I have also been waiting for capitulation, but I don't believe this is it. IMHO we have leapfrogged that and I smell downright panic. I hope I'm wrong..

If Bernanke doesn't make the right moves, and he might already be too late, it's only going to get worse. When Joe six-pack sees the open tomorrow, the panic selling begins. Any bounce from an emergency cut will be temporary and the market continues down. I wish I could have your optimism, but the market is screaming capital preservation right now.
 
IMO you're movin too fast Philly. Even if tommorrow is the day there will still be weeks of chaos. I would leave more flexibility for myself.




phillyfed said:
Been waiting for capitulation for months. I hear it may be knocking. Come to Papa and sell your shares when everyone else is panicking. I'm going long starting tomorrow.
Click to expand...
 
This is the kind of sentiment that I love. If you look at my posts in this thread I have been bearish and waiting for capitulation and I expected it early this week.

If futures stay the same and we hold that way by Noon tomorrow I'm taking a 40% position long in my TSP (from 100G) and I'll keep adding from there if we drop lower. Ive been holding out for too long for capitulation and if it occurs like futures are pointing to then I love the risk/reward from here. My TSP is at an all-time high and I'm ready to start buying at these levels. Its amazing, the markets are down 2,000 pts and it is finally showing signs of capitulation and the retail investors will sell into the fear as they always do. Its like clockwork. Wall St. traders love this. A flushing away of the retail investor and the opportunity to invest at levels so low, they can buy stocks on the cheap with all the bad news already baked in. Do you think Warren Buffett is selling at tomorrows open? Nope.....He'll be buying value.

Good luck tomorrow. Whatever your position. DO NOT LET EMOTIONS DICTATE YOUR TRADES AND DONT FOLLOW THE HERD.

IMO, You'll look back on this week at the end of this year as the time you should have gotten in, not sold.
 
Rod said:
I'm now seeing GREEN futures @ CNN Money... may not mean too much though.
Click to expand...

The CME is showing the S&P down about 60 pts and the Naz down 80 to kick things off. That would put the Dow down around 600-700 pts if things hold. (I doubt they will) That would be about a 5% drop. Inline with the Worldwide market selloff on Monday.
 
phillyfed said:
The CME is showing the S&P down about 60 pts and the Naz down 80 to kick things off. That would put the Dow down around 600-700 pts if things hold. (I doubt they will) That would be about a 5% drop. Inline with the Worldwide market selloff on Monday.
Click to expand...

Wow... I've never seen the DOW lose that much in a single day. I know it has... but it will be weird seeing it unfold if that indeed happens.

I just feel sorry for folks nearing retirement who are relying on their TSPs/401s.

Hopefully we will snap back soon... but the PAIN must play out.
 
Futures mean nothing at this point, the volume so low it's laughable. I hope I'm wrong for the benefit of many and America's economy.


phillyfed said:
The CME is showing the S&P down about 60 pts and the Naz down 80 to kick things off. That would put the Dow down around 600-700 pts if things hold. (I doubt they will) That would be about a 5% drop. Inline with the Worldwide market selloff on Monday.
Click to expand...
 
As a trader that wants to go longer in US equities, this sucks. Anyways, I bought some more QQQQ at the open at 43, which I have been accumulating since 47 and downwards and am going long 15I 10C 75G at todays close from 100G in my TSP. I believe we selloff this afternoon and the protracted downturn continues, ala, the 100-200 pt. down days which will make losses much steeper in the end. Too many people were thinking what I was thinking and bought at the open when the Dow was off 450+ but I believe they bought too soon when the markets almost leveled off........ ESP. between 10:30-11:15am
 
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